Manchester City vs Man United Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

man-city-v-man-united-logo man-city-v-man-united-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:30 GMT, 3rd Mar 24
PredictionMan City to Win!
Odds1.33
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.33
Bet €100 and win €133 if Man City win.
Bonus:
2.
betway
Odds : 1.29
Bet €100 and win €129 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.26
Bet €100 and win €126 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€10
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Manchester United’s four-match Premier League winning run came to a shuddering halt at home against Fulham at the weekend, leaving their hopes of securing a top-four spot hanging by a thread. They’ll hardly be relishing their upcoming trip to the Etihad Stadium, where bitter rivals Man City haven’t lost since November 2022. Despite not being at their best of late, Pep Guardiola’s side are also undefeated in 17 outings since a 1-0 defeat at Villa Park on December 6th, and they’re the clear favourites to beat United with the best betting sites. But which side do I think will win the Manchester derby?

🏆 Manchester City vs Man United EPL Prediction

While United may hold a historical head-to-head advantage over Man City, Guardiola’s all-conquering side have been far superior in recent times. In fact, they’ve won four of the previous five encounters in all competitions, prevailing in the FA Cup final in May and thrashing United 6-3 at the Etihad in October 2022.

City also thumped United 3-0 at Old Trafford back on October 29th, in a match where the Red Devils had just 39% possession on their home turf and conceded 21 attempts on goal (including 10 on target). This game highlighted United’s persistent struggles with ball retention, with the side having completed just 80.3% of their passes in the EPL this season and creative fulcrum Bruno Fernandes being particularly wasteful (he has completed just 72.1% of the 1482 passes he has attempted).

Conversely, City have completed a league-high 88.6% of their attempted passes this season, while producing an impressive 4.04 goal-creating actions per 90 and outperforming their xG of 50.1 by +6.9. So, United’s inability to keep possession could prove fatal here, while the fact that they’ve conceded 10 goals from set pieces (and won just 49.4% of their aerial duels) bodes well for a tall and tenacious Man City side.

United certainly struggled aerially and failed to sustain attacks against the Cottagers last time out, and it’s hard to see them faring any better against City. In fact, they may even struggle to score against City given the enforced absence of Rasmus Højlund through injury, so I’m tipping the home side to claim the local bragging rights with another win.

My Prediction: 🏆 Man City 4 – 0 Man United ⚽

💯 Manchester City vs Man United EPL Match Odds

There are plenty of football betting markets you can access when wagering on the Manchester derby. These include the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on the number of goals that will be scored in the game, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Manchester City vs Man United: Match Winner

It says a great deal about the contrasting fortunes of these teams that City are priced at around 1.26 to defeat a maddeningly inconsistent Man United team. This implies a 79.4% probability of a home win. As for the Red Devils, they can be backed at an average price of 8.50 to prevail, suggesting that they only have an 11.8% chance of defeating Pep Guardiola’s men.

Team
Man City to Win1.251.291.261.251.33
Man United to Win9.508.008.259.008.50
Draw5.505.755.706.005.80

⚽ Manchester City vs Man United: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in six of United’s 13 away matches this season, including each of the last four. United have drawn four blanks on the road and kept the same number of clean sheets. Interestingly, both sides have found the net in eight of City’s 13 home league games in 2023/24, with Guardiola’s side keeping five clean sheets and scoring in every single encounter.

Yes/No
Yes1.671.751.681.601.67
No2.102.052.012.002.10

🥅 Manchester City vs Man United: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

City have played 13 times at home this season, with these matches yielding 42 goals at a rate of 3.23 per game (Guardiola’s men have scored 31 times in front of their home fans). As for United, their 13 away matches have produced a total of 33 goals at a rate of 2.53 per 90, so it’s no surprise the odds imply a significantly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this contest.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.361.381.371.401.36
Under 2.5 Goals2.882.802.792.753.00

✔️ Manchester City vs Man United - Betting Tips

There’s little value in backing Man City to win outright here unless you’re able to commit a huge stake. Instead, you can create value when engaging in match wagering or identifing superior betting lines. I’ve prepared some betting tips to help you on your way.

  • Tip 1: Back Man City to Win With Over 3.5 Goals Scored: The last five matches between these two teams in all competitions have produced 23 goals, at an impressive rate of 4.60 per 90. The Citizens have scored 16 of these goals, while their 13 Premier League home matches this season have produced 42 goals at a rate of 3.23 per game. City themselves have plundered 31 goals at home at a rate of 2.38 goals per 90, while they’re unbeaten at the Etihad in 24 outings. So, there’s value in backing City to win with over 3.5 goals scored at a price of 2.50 with PalmSlots Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Man City to Win With a Handicap of -2 Goals: City’s dominance at Old Trafford back in October was striking, with the away side’s xG of 3.94 significantly higher than United’s (1.03). City’s key attackers also love playing against the Red Devils, with Erling Haaland scoring five goals in just three appearances in this fixture (including a hattrick at the Etihad last season) and laying on three assists. Kevin de Bruyne has also delivered seven goal involvements in 13 games against United (three goals and four assists) and is expected to start in the derby. So, there’s value in backing City to win with a handicap of -2 goals at the enhanced price of 2.88 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Man City to Win to Nil: The odds imply a higher probability of both teams scoring at the Etihad, but this arguably fails to take into account United’s goalscoring issues on the road and the enforced absence of star striker Rasmus Højlund. The Red Devils certainly looked toothless in attack against Fulham, with Marcus Rashford lacking endeavour and struggling against the physicality of centre-back Calvin Bassey. While captain Bruno Fernandes has created 2.76 chances per 90 in the EPL this season, his form has dipped of late and he only has five assists to his name in total. So, consider backing City to win to nil at a price of 2.55 with 1Bet Sports

1️⃣ Man City Update

City’s 1-0 win at Bournemouth last time out kept them hot on the heels of Liverpool, with Guardiola’s side now just a point behind the Reds. They’re also unbeaten in 17 matches in all competitions since a 1-0 reversal at Aston Villa on December 6th and have won eight of their last nine in the Premier League. While they’ve only scored three goals in their last three league outings and looked vulnerable in defensive transition when drawing 1-1 at home against Chelsea, City are known to raise their collective game for the derby and will be much improved when United roll into town.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 0
Man City 1
24.02.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Brentford 0
20.02.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Chelsea 1
17.02.24
Premier League
FC Copenhagen 1
Man City 3
13.02.24
Champions League
Man City 2
Everton 0
10.02.24
Premier League

Jack Grealish was back on the bench against Bournemouth, so he’ll be in contention to start against United at the Etihad. Both Bernado Silva and John Stones completed 90 minutes against the Cherries too, while Kevin De Bruyne was afforded a rest and only played six minutes at the Vitality Stadium. At the time of writing, Josko Gvardiol is the only doubt ahead of United’s visit, but he’s largely expected to be passed fit by the weekend after an ankle injury.

PlayerReason
Josko Gvardiol Ankle Injury

2️⃣ Man United Update

Before their home game with Fulham, United were on the crest of a wave after four successive EPL wins (their single biggest winning sequence since the final four matches of last season). However, they were outclassed and outfought by the Cottagers, with United seemingly unable to retain possession and perennially vulnerable to rapid counterattacks. This is nothing new for United in 2023/24, of course, but the loss of Højlund rendered them completely toothless against a combative and organised defence. United will also miss the pace and experience of Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw against City, so you may not be inclined to back them as winners even if you have several free bets on your account!

Last 5 Games
Man United 1
Fulham 2
24.02.24
Premier League
Luton 1
Man United 2
18.02.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Man United 2
11.02.24
Premier League
Man United 3
West Ham 0
04.02.24
Premier League
Wolves 3
Man United 4
01.02.24
Premier League

Martinez (knee injury) and Shaw (thigh) have been ruled out until April and May respectively, while Højlund is expected to remain absent for up to three weeks with a muscle injury. These three have joined Anthony Martial (groin), Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Mason Mount (calf) in the treatment room, while right-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka remains absent with a knock. Casemiro was withdrawn against Fulham after suffering a head injury and will be assessed before the game at the Etihad.

PlayerReason
Lisandro Martinez Knee Injury
Luke Shaw Thigh Injury
Rasmus Højlund Muscle Injury
Anthony Martial Groin Injury
Tyrell Malacia Knee Injury
Mason Mount Calf Injury
Aaron Wan-Bissaka Knock
Casemiro Head Injury

👕 Man City vs Man United - Potential Lineups

Pos. Man City
3-2-4-1
Man United
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper Ederson A. Onana Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back K. Walker D. Dalot Right Back
Centre Back R. Dias R. Varane Centre Back
Left Centre Back N. Ake H. Maguire Centre Back
Defensive Midfielder J. Stones V. Lindelof Left Back
Defensive Midfielder Rodri K. Mainoo Midfielder
Right Midfielder P. Foden Casemiro Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder K. De Bruyne S. McTominay Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder B. Silva B. Fernandes Wide Forward
Left Midfielder J. Grealish M. Rashford Striker
Striker E. Haaland A. Garnacho Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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