Manchester City vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

man-city-v-arsenal-logo man-city-v-arsenal-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable16:30 GMT, 31st Mar 24
PredictionMan City to Win!
Odds1.87
Man City to Win!
The best odds
1.
betway
Odds : 1.91
Bet €100 and win €191 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€50+ 50 Free Spins
2.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.87
Bet €100 and win €187 if Man City win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.86
Bet €100 and win €186 if Man City win.
Bonus:
€10
Man-City-v-arsenal-logo Man-City-v-arsenal-logo

The Premier League resumes after the international break with a huge clash at the top of the table, as league leaders Arsenal travel to defending champions Manchester City. The Gunners are currently a point clear of the Citizens with 10 matches to play, and a win here would arguably make them favourites to win their first EPL title since 2004. City would also assume the mantle of favourites with a win at the Etihad, where they remain unbeaten in 25 matches since November 12th, 2022. But how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing this match, and who do I think will win in Manchester?

🏆 Manchester City vs Arsenal EPL Prediction

Arsenal managed to win the reverse fixture on October 8th in what was a highly tactical and cagey encounter. Ultimately, Gabriel Martinelli’s late, deflected strike was enough to secure a 1-0 win for the Gunners despite the site creating an xG of just 0.39. City’s own xG of 0.86 was only marginally higher, with both teams struggling to create chances throughout.

Of course, both teams also play with great intensity and look to control possession in their opponent’s half where possible. Given the evenly matched nature of Man City and Arsenal, this has the potential to create a war of attrition in the middle of the park, so chances may once again be at a premium in Manchester this weekend.

However, I expect there to be more goalmouth action than during the reverse fixture, especially with the Gunners in outstanding goalscoring form. Arsenal are averaging a league-high 4.18 goal-creating actions per 90 in the 2023/24 Premier League, while their xG of 56.6 is only bettered by Liverpool at the time of writing.

There’s no doubting City’s attacking quality either, with the excellent Phil Foden having already contributed 11 goals and seven assists in just 28 appearances this season. Kevin De Bruyne and Kyle Walker could also make their respective returns from injury against Arsenal, only reinforcing City’s big-game experience and undoubted know-how. This could prove key, and I’m tipping City to edge a potentially decisive EPL encounter!

My Prediction: 🏆 Manchester City 2 – 1 Arsenal ⚽

💯 Manchester City vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds

As usual, you can access a huge selection of football betting markets ahead of the clash between Man City and Arsenal, including the match winner or result, both teams to score (BTTS) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my analysis of these markets and their latest odds.

🏅 Manchester City vs Arsenal: Match Winner

Not only has it been 18 months since Pep Guardiola’s team were defeated at home in any competition, but Arsenal haven’t won at the Etihad since a 2-0 victory in January 2015. So, the Citizens are the favourites to beat the Gunners at the weekend, with their average price of 1.86, implying a 53.76% probability of a home win. Conversely, Arsenal can be backed at around 3.65 to win, so they have just a 27.39% prevailing in Manchester.

Team
betway-logo betway-logo
Man City to Win 1.83 1.91 1.86 1.83 1.87
Arsenal to Win 3.80 3.60 3.65 3.90 3.90
Draw 3.60 3.75 3.60 3.50 3.70

⚽ Manchester City vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 64% of Man City’s home Premier League matches this season, with the Citizens keeping five clean sheets and finding the net every time they’ve taken to the field at the Etihad Stadium. While both sides have found the net in 50% of Arsenal’s EPL matches in 2023/24, this figure drops to 36% on the road, with the Gunners keeping an impressive seven clean sheets on their travels.

Yes/No
betway-logo betway-logo
Yes 1.62 1.70 1.59 1.62 1.67
No 2.15 2.10 2.18 2.15 2.10

🥅 Manchester City vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Man City have contested 14 EPL matches at the Etihad so far this season, which have yielded 46 goals at the impressive rate of 3.28. City have plundered 34 of these goals at a rate of 2.42 per 90. Arsenal’s 14 away matches have produced 45 goals in total at a rate of 3.21 per game, with the Gunners also scoring 34 times on the road.

Under/Over
betway-logo betway-logo
Over 2.5 Goals 1.73 1.78 1.68 1.73 1.73
Under 2.5 Goals 2.00 2.00 2.02 2.00 2.00

✔️ Manchester City vs Arsenal - Betting Tips

Although City’s status as favourites is justified, the pre-game odds don’t really reflect just how evenly matched these two teams are. This can make it hard to identify value in the available odds, so I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you make the most of your starting bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back Man City to Win and Both Teams to Score: Combination betting always offers a unique opportunity to create value in match wagering and the clash between Man City and Arsenal is no exception to this rule. In this case, City’s imperious home form and incredible big-game experience certainly make them the most likely winners, while the BTTS odds also imply a 61.72% probability of both sides finding the net at the Etihad. What’s more, you can back City to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.60 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Erling Haaland as an Anytime Goalscorer: Erling Haaland cut a frustrated figure during City’s 1-1 draw at Anfield before the international break, while the Norwegian hitman has only scored twice in his previous five Premier League matches. However, he remains the Premier League’s top scorer with 18 goals from an xG of 20.9 and averages 0.84 goals per 90 so far this season. He has also scored twice and contributed two assists in just five career appearances against the Gunners, so back Haaland as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.20 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Bet on the Highest Scoring Half: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you may want to bet on the highest scoring half at the Etihad. Interestingly, no Premier League team has scored more first-half goals than the Gunners this season (31), while City have found the net 26 times during the first 45 minutes of games this season. They also took a first-half lead at Anfield last time out and are expected to start quickly against Arsenal. You can bet on the first half being the highest scoring at the competitive price of 3.25 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ Man City Update

City’s home form is truly something to be admired, with the side now unbeaten in 25 Premier League matches at the Etihad since Brentford's 2-1 defeat on November 12th, 2022. Since this loss, the club has also avoided defeat in 38 home games in all competitions, during a run that has seen them win a staggering five trophies. However, their goalscoring form has tailed off slightly at the Etihad this season, with their tally of 34 home goals bettered by Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa (and equalled by Newcastle). Even Erling Haaland has more EPL goals on the road than he does at home this season, and this may give Arsenal some encouragement ahead of kick-off.

Last 5 Games
Man City 2 Newcastle 0 16.03.24 FA Cup
Liverpool 1 Man City 1 10.03.24 Premier League
Man City 3 FC Copenhagen 1 06.03.24 UEFA Champions League
Man City 3 Man United 1 03.03.24 Premier League
Luton Town 2 Man City 6 27.02.24 FA Cup

Man City are sweating on the fitness of John Stones, with the influential defender having limped off with a muscle complaint after just nine minutes of England’s international friendly against Belgium at Wembley. Matheus Nunes is also being assessed with a foot injury and is unlikely to be available for the visit of Arsenal. However, both Kevin De Bruyne (groin) and Kyle Walker (thigh) will face late fitness tests and could well be involved in the matchday squad, while Ederson may also have recovered from a thigh complaint in time.

Player Reason
John Stones Muscle Injury
Matheus Nunes Foot Injury
Kevin De Bruyne Groin Injury
Kyle Walker Thigh Injury
Ederson Thigh Injury

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

When Arsenal slumped to a 2-1 defeat at Fulham on December 31st, they fell to fourth in the table having won just one of their previous five EPL matches. However, the New Year has brought a spectacular run of form for the Gunners, who have now won eight consecutive Premier League matches by an aggregate score of 33-4. Arsenal’s four away matches during this sequence have seen the Gunners plunder 19 goals and concede just once, with Nottingham Forest’s Taiwo Awoniyi the last player to score against Mikel Arteta’s men on the road on January 30th. So, they’ll definitely arrive in Manchester in a confident mood.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 1 FC Porto 0 12.03.24 UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 2 Brentford 1 09.03.24 Premier League
Sheffield United 0 Arsenal 6 04.03.24 Premier League
Arsenal 4 Newcastle United 1 24.02.24 Premier League
FC Porto 1 Arsenal 0 21.02.24 Champions League

Like City, Arsenal also have a number of players being assessed ahead of the trip to the Etihad. The good news is that influential defender Gabriel (Achilles tendon injury) and Bukayo Saka (hamstring) are expected to be passed fit in time for kick-off, while Thomas Partey is also back to full fitness after an extended absence. However, Gabriel Martinelli remains a doubt with what appears to be a deceptively serious foot injury. Jurrien Timber is continuing his recovery after incurring a serious knee injury on the opening day of the campaign but remains some weeks away from playing in the first team.

PlayerReason
Gabriel Achilles Tendon
Bukayo Saka Hamstring Injury
Gabriel Martinelli Foot Injury
Jurrien Timber Knee Injury

👕 Man City vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos. Man City
4-2-3-1
Arsenal
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper Ederson D. Raya Goalkeeper
Right Back K. Walker B. White Right Back
Centre Back R. Dias W. Saliba Centre Back
Centre Back M. Akanji Gabriel Centre Back
Left Back N. Ake O. Zinchenko Left Back
Midfielder Rodri M. Ødegaard Midfielder
Midfielder M. Kovacic Jorginho Midfielder
Midfielder K. De Bruyne D. Rice Midfielder
Wide Forward P. Foden B. Saka Wide Forward
Striker E. Haaland K. Havertz Striker
Wide Forward J. Doku L. Trossard Wide Forward

Man City to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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