Luton vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

luton-v-nottingham-forest-logo luton-v-nottingham-forest-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT, 16th Mar 24
PredictionLuton to Win!
Odds2.60
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
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luton-v-nottingham-forest-logo luton-v-nottingham-forest-logo

Luton Town have wowed neutrals during the 2023/24 Premier League season, showcasing incredible tenacity and competitiveness against largely superior opposition. However, the Hatters have entered a poor run of form at arguably the worst possible time, going winless in six since a 4-0 win over Brighton on January 30th. As for Nottingham Forest, they’ve won just one of their previous eight EPL matches, while they now sit just one place and three points ahead of Luton ahead of their trip to Hertfordshire. But who are Ireland’s best betting sites backing to win here and which team do I think will prevail?

🏆 Luton vs Nottingham Forest EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture in October perfectly showcased Luton’s incredible fighting spirit, as they secured a courageous 2-2 draw despite trailing by two goals until the 83rd minute. The Hatters also produced a competitive xG of 1.50 (compared to 3.28 for Forest), while there were 32 attempts on goal in total and 12 on target.

Luton boss Rob Edwards has certainly instilled an immense work ethic in his charges as well as implementing an intense, hard-running playing style. This is borne out by the team’s tally of 1,411 ball recoveries in the 2023/24 Premier League (only four top-flight sides have completed more), while the Hatters have also completed an impressive 47.2% of their take-ons.

It therefore makes sense that Luton likes to counter-press and attack space in transition, but they also retain an excellent ball-playing midfielder in the form of Ross Barkley. The former Chelsea man has been in inspired form for the Hatters and produced 4.08 shot-creating actions per 90 this season. He’ll look to get on the ball against one of the few sides that have averaged less possession per game than Luton this season (40.20% vs 41.70%).

This could be bad news for Forest, who often struggle to retain the ball and have only produced 18.89 shot-creating actions per 90 in the EPL. Nuno Espírito Santo’s side will also have to contend with a ferocious atmosphere inside a claustrophobic Kenilworth Road. I’m tipping Luton to win a potentially high-scoring encounter here.

My Prediction: 🏆 Luton Town 3 – 2 Nottingham Forest ⚽

💯 Luton vs Nottingham Forest EPL Match Odds

Before you stake your hard-earned money on the Premier League match between Luton and Nottingham Forest, it’s important to review the available markets and understand how they’re being priced. Here’s my analysis of the three most popular football betting markets and the very latest odds!

🏅 Luton vs Nottingham Forest: Match Winner

The bookies are finding this match incredibly difficult to call with Luton’s average odds of 2.60 implying a 38.46% probability of a potentially pivotal home win. However, Forest can be backed at the slightly shorter price of 2.55, which suggests that they have a 39.21% chance of winning in the south of England.

Team
Luton Town to Win2.602.502.532.602.60
Nottingham Forest to Win2.502.602.482.502.55
Draw3.503.503.453.403.50

⚽ Luton vs Nottingham Forest: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 11 of Luton’s 14 home matches this season (79%), with the Hatters keeping two clean sheets and failing to score just once (vs Spurs on October 7th). Both sides have found the net in eight of Forest’s 14 away games in 2023/24 (57%), with Forest also keeping two clean sheets but drawing five blanks on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.531.601.531.531.53
No2.382.302.292.382.38

🥅 Luton vs Nottingham Forest: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Luton’s 14 league games at Kenilworth Road have produced 46 goals in total, at a rate of 3.28 per 90 minutes. As for Forest, their 14 matches on the road have seen slightly less goalmouth action, but still yielded 44 goals at a rate of 3.14 per game. So, this match is likely to be relatively open and the odds imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at Kenilworth Road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.621.701.651.701.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.152.102.062.102.10

✔️ Luton vs Nottingham Forest - Betting Tips

There’s little to choose between these two lowly Premier League sides, whether you consider the latest league table or the odds from Betinireland’s market-leading sites. However, there are plenty of betting markets and wager types that offer significant value, enabling you to make the absolute most of your starting bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back Luton to Win: Despite home advantage, Luton Town are slight underdogs here. The odds imply a marginally higher probability of a Nottingham Forest win. Because of this, there’s value in backing Luton to win outright at the weekend, especially at the competitive price of 2.60 with 1Bet Sports. Remember, Forest have also won just twice on the road this season and only three of their previous 33 Premier League away games, while Luton’s tally of 12 goals from set-pieces highlights their immense threat from corners and free-kicks. Forest have conceded a league-high 17 goals from set pieces in 2023/24.
  • Tip 2: Back over 3.5 Goals Being Scored in the Game: Usually, most over/under betting activity takes place around the 2.5 goals line. However, the 277 EPL matches contested this season have produced 895 goals at a rate of 3.23 per 90 minutes, while the 56 Premier League encounters featuring Luton and Forest combined have seen goals scored at a similar rate of 3.21 per game. The reverse fixture also featured four goals and a cumulative xG of 4.78, so get on over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.70 with Betway Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Carlton Morris as an Anytime Goalscorer: Carlton Morris has stepped up in the enforced absence of Elijah Adebayo, scoring four goals in his last six Premier League appearances. He’s also an aerial threat and has been called upon as a penalty taker this season, scoring from the spot in the 4-4 draw against Newcastle at St James Park on February 3rd. Even if Adebayo returns to fitness for the visit of Forest, Morris is likely to play in one of Luton’s three forward roles. Back him as an anytime scorer at the highly competitive price of 9.50 with LegendPlay Sports. This could be a great option if you have one or more free bets on your account.

1️⃣ Luton Town Update

When the Hatters moved out of the relegation zone with a 4-0 thrashing of Brighton on January 30th, the team had taken 10 points from the previous 15 available to them and appeared to be reeling in the sides above them. However, they’ve since seen their threadbare squad exposed by injuries, going winless in their last six matches and recording consecutive home defeats against Sheffield United, Man United and Aston Villa. However, they salvaged a crucial point last time out at Crystal Palace thanks to a late goal by Cauley Woodrow, while the potential return of Adebayo and Teden Mengi against Forest could provide a huge and timely boost to the squad.

Last 5 Games
Crystal Palace 1
Luton Town 1
09.03.24
Premier League
Luton Town 2
Aston Villa 3
02.03.24
Premier League
Luton Town 2
Man City 6
27.02.24
FA Cup
Liverpool 4
Luton Town 1
21.02.24
Premier League
Luton Town 1
Man United2
18.02.24
Premier League

Both Adebayo (thigh) and Mengi (knock) will be assessed prior to kick-off, while Gabriel Osho (knee) and Albert Sambi Lokonga (hamstring) may also face late fitness tests. However, the match will come too soon for defender Mads Andersen (calf). Joseph Johnson (illness), Amari'i Bell (thigh), and Dan Potts (also thigh) have been ruled out until April. Jacob Brown will miss out with a knee injury sustained in training and Marvelous Nakamba has a more serious knee complaint that will sideline him until May. Thomas Lockyer is a long-term absentee after suffering a cardiac arrest earlier in the season.

PlayerReason
Elijah Adebayo Thigh Injury
Teden Mengi Knock
Gabriel Osho Knee Injury
Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamstring Injury
Mads Andersen Calf Injury
Joseph Johnson Illness
Amari'i Bell Thigh Injury
Dan Potts Thigh Injury
Jacob Brown Knee Injury
Marvelous Nakamba Knee Injury
Thomas Lockyer Chest Injury

2️⃣ Nottingham Forest Update

Since Portuguese coach Nuno Espírito Santo arrived in the Nottingham Forest hot seat on December 20th, the East Midlands side has won just four of their 16 matches in all competitions. This run has included three wins in 11 Premier League outings with their sole EPL triumph on the road since Nuno’s appointment at Newcastle on December 26th. After winning two of their first three league matches following the firing of the popular Steve Cooper, however, Forest have won just one in eight, although this sequence has seen the team face elite opposition in the form of Arsenal, Aston Villa and Liverpool.

Last 5 Games
Brighton 1
Nottm Forest 0
10.03.24
Premier League
Nottm Forest 0
Liverpool 1
02.03.24
Premier League
Nottm Forest 0
Man United 1
28.02.24
FA Cup
Aston Villa 4
Nottm Forest 2
24.02.24
Premier League
Nottm Forest 2
West Ham 0
17.02.24
Premier League

Olaoluwa Aina is approaching a return after suffering an unspecified knock. He’ll be assessed ahead of the trip to Hertfordshire. On-loan Dortmund winger Giovanni Reyna may also have recovered from a knock in time for the match against Luton, but the contest is likely to come too soon for defender Gonzalo Montiel (muscle complaint). Nuno Tavares (muscle injury) remains sidelined and isn’t expected back until the end of March.

PlayerReason
Giovanni Reyna Knock
Nuno Tavares Muscle Injury
Gonzalo Montiel Muscle Injury
Olaoluwa Aina Unknown Injury

👕 Luton Town vs Nottingham Forest - Potential Lineups

Pos. Luton Town
3-4-2-1
Nottm Forest
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper T. Kaminski M. Sels Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back I. Kaboré N. Williams Right Back
Centre Back T. Mengi A. Omobamidele Centre Back
Left Centre Back R. Burke Murillo Centre Back
Right Wing Back C. Ogbene H. Toffolo Left Back
Midfielder J. Clark R. Yates Midfielder
Midfielder R. Barkley Danilo Midfielder
Left Wing Back A. Doughty N. Domínguez Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder C. Morris A. Elanga Wide Forward
Attacking Midfielder T. Chong T. Awoniyi Striker
Striker C. Woodrow M. Gibbs-White Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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