Luton vs Brentford Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

luton-v-brentford-logo luton-v-brentford-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT, 20th April 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds3.70
BookmakerBetiton
Back the Draw!
The best odds
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Odds : 3.60
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luton-v-brentford-logo luton-v-brentford-logo

Despite their 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Manchester City last weekend, Luton continue to scrap for their lives in the Premier League. Next up on Saturday is a potentially pivotal clash against struggling Brentford, with a win for the Hatters capable of boosting their own survival chances and dragging the Bees into the fight. Of course, both sides are highly combative and boast a genuine goal threat, but Luton have taken 15 of their 25 points this season at Kenilworth Road and Brentford have won just one of their previous 11 away matches. But will home advantage prove critical here?

🏆 Luton vs Brentford EPL Prediction

Brentford ran out convincing winners in the reverse fixture at the Gtech Community Stadium on December 2nd, courtesy of three second-half goals. They accumulated an xG of 3.26 during the 90 minutes too (compared to just 0.23 for the Hatters) while claiming 69% possession and striking 27 attempts at goal.

However, Luton have improved as the Premier League season has wore on, becoming increasingly competitive in the process. This improvement has been built on tireless running and direct wing play, with Rob Edwards’ side completing an impressive 1664 ball recoveries and attempting 733 crosses (an EPL high in 2023/24).

Of course, the Bees are also aggressive out of possession and incredibly well-organised under Thomas Frank, but they’re arguably a more creative side too. In fact, they’ve generated a collective xG of 55.12 in this season’s EPL, but underperformed this by a whopping -8.12 goals. Also, Brentford have missed 60 big chances this season, with only Liverpool and Man City squandering more.

Ultimately, this will be a tense and fiercely contested game, in which I expect Brentford to shade the possession statistics and create slightly more in the attacking third. Their profligacy could cost them, however, and although Luton have won just once in their previous 12 matches, I’m backing them to grind out a hard-earned point here.

My Prediction: 🏆 Luton Town 1 – 1 Brentford ⚽

💯 Luton vs Brentford EPL Match Odds

The bookies are relatively split on the win market ahead of the clash between Luton and Brentford, although the Bees are narrow favourites to record a potentially crucial away win. You can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on the total number of goals scored during the 90 minutes. Let’s take a closer look at these markets and how they’re being priced by Ireland’s best betting sites

🏅 Luton vs Brentford: Match Winner

You can back Luton to record their fifth EPL home victory of the season at around 3.10, with these odds implying a 32.25% probability of a victory for the Hatters. If you agree with the bookies and fancy Brentford to prevail, you should know that their average price of 2.10 affords them a 47.61% chance of winning. The draw is the statistically least likely outcome, with odds of 3.50 implying just a 28.57% probability of the match ending in a tie.

Team
Luton to Win 3.20 3.10 3.05 3.10 3.20
Brentford to Win 2.10 2.20 2.15 2.00 2.10
Draw 3.60 3.50 3.70 3.50 3.50

⚽ Luton vs Brentford: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 13 of Luton’s 16 EPL home matches this season (81%). The Hatters have kept two clean sheets at Kenilworth Road and drawn just a single blank. Both sides have found the net in nine of Brentford’s 16 away games (56%), with the Bees keeping three clean sheets on the road and failing to score on a further four occasions.

Team
Yes 1.40 1.48 1.48 1.40 1.44
No 2.60 2.60 2.55 2.50 2.63

🥅 Luton vs Brentford: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Luton’s 16 home matches in the Premier League have produced a total of 51 goals, at a rate of 3.18 per game. They’ve scored 24 of these goals at a rate of 1.50 per 90 minutes and only have a negative goal difference of -3 at Kenilworth Road (despite losing nine times). Brentford’s 16 away games have yielded 48 goals at a rate of exactly 3.00 per 90, with the Bees conceding 28 times in total on their travels.

Team
Over 2.5 Goals 1.50 1.55 1.54 1.50 1.53
Under 2.5 Goals 2.40 2.40 2.33 2.50 2.38

✔️ Luton vs Brentford - Betting Tips

There are some intriguingly priced football betting markets ahead of the clash between Luton and Brentford, although identifying the best value lines may prove challenging. So, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you make the most of your starting bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: While the odds imply just a 28.57% probability of the match ending in a draw, there’s a great deal at stake for both sides at Kenilworth. A draw would also suit Brentford given their seven-point cushion over the Hatters and the relegation zone, while a point could even prove crucial to Luton given the incredibly close proximity of fellow strugglers Nottingham Forest and Everton (who are also dealing with points deductions). Given this and Brentford’s enduring wastefulness in front of goal, I think there’s value in backing the draw at a price of 3.70 with Betiton.
  • Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The pre-game odds also imply a 64.93% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes, which makes some sense given the teams’ respective home and away records. However, Luton remain without top scorer Elijah Adebayo among a host of absentees, while the Bees have only scored eight goals in their previous six EPL matches. Both sides have a goals-to-shot ratio of just 0.10 too, so get on under 2.5 goals being scored here at a price of 2.50 with PalmSlots Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back the Second Half as the Highest Scoring: If you have one or more free bets available, you may want to wager on which half will see the most goals. In this case, the Bees have conceded 35 of their 58 Premier League goals in the second 45 minutes of matches (60%), while this figure increases to a whopping 66% for Luton this season. The Hatters’ injury crisis is also making it hard for them to rotate their squad and keep their players fresh, so I think there’s value in backing the second half to be the highest scoring at a price of 2.05 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Luton Update

Luton have now won just one of their previous 12 EPL matches, since they thrashed Brighton 4-0 at Kenilworth Road on January 30th. They also sit bottom of the Premier League form table over the course of the last 10 games, earning just a single victory and taking five points from the 30 available during this period. This should come as no surprise given their mounting and unrelenting injury crisis, but the good news for their Hatters is that both of their wins in 2024 have come at Kenilworth Road. They triumphed the last time they played here too, edging Bournemouth 2-1 on April 6th.

Last 5 Games
Man City 5 Luton 1 13.04.24 Premier League
Luton 2 Bournemouth 1 06.04.24 Premier League
Arsenal 2 Luton 0 03.04.24 Premier League
Tottenham 2 Luton 1 30.03.24 Premier League
Luton 1 Nottm Forest 1 16.03.24 Premier League

Luton will welcome back wing back Issa Kabore against the Bees after he was unable to face his parent club at the Etihad last weekend. Teden Mengi (knee injury) and Albert Sambi Lokonga (hamstring) could also return against Brentford, although they’ll face late fitness tests before kick-off. However, the match will come too soon for Mads Anderson (calf), while Chiedozie Ogbene (thigh) and the aforementioned Adebayo (hamstring) won’t return until May. Luton also have five players who won’t feature this season, namely Dan Potts (thigh), Jacob Brown (knee surgery), Amari'i Bell (hamstring), Marvelous Nakamba (knee) and Thomas Lockyer (chest). Defender Gabriel Osho is absent with a knee injury and has yet to have his return date confirmed.

Player Reason
Teden Mengi Knee Injury
Jacob Brown Knee Surgery
Gabriel Osho Knee Injury
Chiedozie Ogbene Thigh Injury
Mads Anderson Calf Injury
Dan Potts Thigh Injury
Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamstring Injury
Elijah Adebayo Hamstring Injury
Marvelous Nakamba Knee Injury
Amari'i Bell Hamstring Injury
Thomas Lockyer Chest Injury

2️⃣ Brentford Update

Brentford have scarcely fared any better during the last 10 Premier League games, taking seven points from the 30 available to them and earning just a single victory. Overall, they’ve won just three of their last 19 league matches dating back to their 3-1 over Luton in the reverse fixture in December, although their 2-0 victory over Sheffield United at the Gtech last weekend snapped a nine-game winless run. However, they have won just once on the road in 2024 (2-0 at Wolves on February 10th), with their last away victory prior to this coming at Stamford Bridge back on October 28th.

Last 5 Games
Brentford 2
Sheffield United 0
13.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 3
Brentford 3
06.04.24
Premier League
Brentford 0
Brighton 0
03.04.24
Premier League
Brentford 1
Man United 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Burnley 2
Brentford 1
16.03.24
Premier League

Midfielder Christian Norgaard (lower back in injury) and Kristoffer Ajer (calf) are both being assessed ahead of a potential return this weekend, although whether they’re fit enough to start at Kenilworth Road has yet to be determined. Otherwise, the Bees remain without four long-term absentees, with Aaron Hickey (thigh), Ben Mee (ankle) and Rico Henry (knee) unlikely to play again this season. The same is true for Josh Dasilva (knee), who won’t return to fitness until November.

PlayerReason
Kristoffer Ajer Calf Injury
Aaron Hickey Hamstring Injury
Ben Mee Ankle Injury
Christian Norgaard Lower Back Injury
Rico Henry Knee Injury
Joshua Dasilva Knee Injury

👕 Luton Town vs Brentford - Potential Lineups

Pos. Luton
3-2-4-1
Brentford
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper T. Kaminski M. Flekken Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back D. Hashioka M. Roerslev Right Back
Centre Back T. Mengi M. Jørgensen Centre Back
Left Centre Back R. Burke N. Collins Centre Back
Right Wing Back I. Kabore S. Reguilón Left Back
Central Midfielder R. Barkley C. Norgaard Midfielder
Right Midfielder J. Clark M. Jensen Midfielder
Left Wing Back A. Doughty V. Janelt Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder A. Townsend B. Mbeumo Wide Forward
Attacking Midfielder T. Chong I. Toney Striker
Striker C. Morris Y. Wissa Wide Forward

Back the Draw!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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