Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 15:45 GMT, 10th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Back the Draw! |
| Odds | 3.70 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Next weekend sees a potentially seminal Premier League clash at Anfield as league leaders Liverpool take on defending champions Man City. A single point separates these two teams after 27 EPL matches and for the last 10 matches, they've set up camp in the top two positions in the form table. However, City have only won twice at Anfield in all competitions since 1981 with a 4-1 thumping in February 2021 their most recent success. The Reds are also unbeaten at home in the Premier League in 25 matches since October 2022, but will they extend this run here or can Pep Guardiola’s men return to the top of the table?
🏆 Liverpool vs Manchester City EPL Prediction
City’s miserable record at Anfield is scarcely believable when you consider their recent domestic dominance - their 4-1 victory in February 2021 broke an 18-year winless streak. City were beaten 1-0 in their last visit to Anfield in October 2022 with Mohammed Salah scoring a late winner after a defensive error from full-back Joao Cancelo.
In the reverse fixture in November, a late Trent Alexander-Arnold goal earned a crucial point for the Reds who had trailed to Erling Haaland’s predatory strike in the 27th minute. The Anfield clash is likely to be similarly tight as both sides are incredibly evenly matched in terms of their attacking output in 2023/24.
Liverpool and Man City have scored 60 and 61 goals respectively this season, for example, while their xG values of 59.9 and 55.0 are also similar. The Reds’ tally of 33.78 shot-creating actions per 90 is only marginally higher than their opponents too (33.41), although City are a little more efficient in front of goal and boast a superior goal-per-shot ratio of 0.12.
Both teams differ in terms of how they defend, with Liverpool relying on aggressive counter-pressing and City more likely to control the game through meticulous ball possession. No EPL side has completed more than Liverpool’s 1,451 ball recoveries this season, whereas City have completed 94.0% of their short passes and taken an incredible 10,079 touches in the middle third.
This could create an initially cautious battle, in which City look to slow down the tempo and Liverpool aim to disrupt and penetrate the space behind the Reds’ backline. Liverpool may also be hindered by the potential absence of Mohamed Salah from the start. The fact remains that neither side can afford to lose here which makes a draw a potential outcome.
My Prediction: 🏆 Liverpool 1 – 1 Man City ⚽
💯 Liverpool vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds
The best football betting sites are offering a huge range of markets ahead of the clash between Liverpool and Man City. These include popular wager types such as the match winner, BTTS, and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game.
🏅 Liverpool vs Manchester City: Match Winner
Despite City’s abysmal record at Anfield, Pep Guardiola’s team are the narrow favourites to beat Liverpool. Their odds of 2.30 imply a 43.47% probability of an away win. Conversely, Liverpool can be backed at around 2.75 to prevail, suggesting that the Reds have a 36.36% chance of triumphing. The draw is priced at 3.60, implying a 27.77% probability of the match ending even.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to Win | 2.80 | 2.75 | 2.67 | 2.75 | 2.80 |
| Man City to Win | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.24 | 2.30 | 2.30 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
⚽ Liverpool vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in eight of Liverpool’s 13 matches at Anfield in this season’s Premier League (including six of the previous seven). The Reds have managed to keep five clean sheets and drawn just a single blank, against Man United on December 17th. Both sides have also found the net in eight of Man City’s 13 away league games, with Guardiola’s side keeping just three clean sheets and failing to score on two occasions.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| No | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.66 | 2.65 | 2.75 |
🥅 Liverpool vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The 13 matches contested by Liverpool at Anfield have also yielded a total of 48 goals at a rate of 3.69 per game. The Reds are the EPL’s top scorers at home this season too having secured 37 goals in total. As for City, their 13 away games have yielded 43 goals at a rate of 3.30 per 90, with the team from the Etihad having been a little more porous than usual on the road in 2023/24.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.40 | 1.48 | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.48 | 2.60 | 2.50 |
✔️ Liverpool vs Manchester City - Betting Tips
This is a difficult match to predict, although the odds published by Betinireland’s best betting sites imply a high probability of BTTS and over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. Here are my tips to navigate the available betting markets and make the most of your bankroll.
- Tip 1: Back the Draw: While the draw remains the statistically most unlikely result, the implied probability of 27.77% is marginally higher than the EPL average of 27.52%. This reflects the evenly matched nature of both sides and the magnitude of this match is also likely to create a greater sense of tension and attrition from the outset. Liverpool may also be without talisman Mo Salah from the start as he recovers from a thigh injury and Diogo Jota will likely miss out with a knee complaint too. So, there’s value in backing the draw at a price of 3.70 with Betiton Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: On average, the odds imply a 68.49% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at Anfield but that arguably doesn’t take into account the pivotal nature of this match and Liverpool’s absentees in attack. The Reds only managed to generate an xG of 0.77 in the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium. Erling Haaland has also been more profligate than usual of late. In fact, he failed to score from an xG of 1.82 against Chelsea recently - his three-yard miss at the Etihad produced an xG of 0.73 all by itself. So, consider backing under 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.60 with PalmSlots Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Darwin Nunez as an Anytime Scorer: In terms of qualifying for or utilising free bets, wagering on the anytime scorer market is always tempting. In this match, Darwin Nunez offers particular value at the price of 2.88 with 1Bet Sports. His pace and direct running are likely to trouble City’s typically high defensive line. The Uruguayan hitman has also scored 10 goals and contributed seven assists in 25 EPL appearances this season.
1️⃣ Liverpool Update
Not only have Liverpool won 11 and drawn two of their 13 EPL home games this season, but the Reds are unbeaten at Anfield in 25 matches since a 2-1 defeat to Leeds on October 29th, 2022. Incredibly, this is the Reds’ only loss at home in 54 outings since Fulham prevailed 1-0 at Anfield on March 7th, 2021. Despite a consistent slew of injuries, Liverpool have also maintained excellent recent form, winning eight of their previous 10 matches and taking 25 points from the 30 available to them during this period. Interestingly, only Man City have won more points within this timeframe.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Nottm Forest 0 Liverpool 1 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
| Liverpool 3 Southampton 0 | 28.02.24 FA Cup |
| Chelsea 1 Liverpool 1 | 25.02.24 EFL Cup |
| Liverpool 4 Luton Town 1 | 21.02.24 Premier League |
| Brentford 1 Liverpool 4 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
Mo Salah may have recovered from his thigh injury to be fit enough to make the matchday squad against City. Ryan Gravenberch (foot) and Curtis Jones (ankle) will also be assessed ahead of kick-off. However, the game will come too soon for keeper Alisson (hamstring) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee). Young midfielder Stefan Bajcetic (fitness) has been ruled out until the end of March. Diogo Jota (knee) and Thiago (thigh) are also weeks away from a return and Joel Matip won’t be available until September after rupturing his ACL.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | Hamstring Injury |
| Ryan Gravenberch | Foot Injury |
| Curtis Jones | Ankle Injury |
| Alisson | Hamstring Injury |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | Knee Injury |
| Stefan Bajcetic | Fitness |
| Diogo Jota | Knee Injury |
| Thiago | Thigh Injury |
| Joel Matip | Ruptured ACL |
2️⃣ Man City Update
City may have been left frustrated by their 1-1 draw at home against Chelsea on February 17th but this remains the only game in which they’ve dropped points since December 16th. They’ve won nine EPL matches and taken 28 points from the 30 available to them during this period and it’s no surprise that this has coincided with the return from injury of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland. Derby day hero Phil Foden is also the Premier League’s in-form player at present, having scored 11 goals (from an xG of just 8.2) and contributed seven assists in 27 appearances this season. He is also averaging 4.46 shot-creating actions per 90 for the Citizens.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Man City 3 Man Utd 1 | 03.03.24 Premier League |
| Luton Town 2 Man City 6 | 27.02.24 FA Cup |
| Bournemouth 0 Man City 1 | 24.02.24 Premier League |
| Man City 1 Brentford 0 | 20.02.24 Premier League |
| Man City 1 Chelsea 1 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
Man City were relatively untroubled during their dominant win over neighbours United and reported no new injury concerns after the 90 minutes. Joško Gvardiol was back on the bench and will be fit to start at Anfield if needed, so City’s only absentee is winger Jack Grealish (who remains sidelined with a groin injury and may not return until the end of March).
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Jack Grealish | Groin Injury |
👕 Liverpool vs Man City - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Liverpool 4-3-3 | Man City 3-4-2-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | C. Kelleher | Ederson | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | C. Bradley | K. Walker | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | I. Konate | R. Dias | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | V. van Dijk | N. Ake | Left Centre Back |
| Left Back | A. Robertson | J. Stones | Defensive Midfielder |
| Midfielder | D. Szoboszlai | Rodri | Defensive Midfielder |
| Midfielder | W. Endo | P. Foden | Right Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Mac Allister | K. De Bruyne | Attacking Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | H. Elliott | B. Silva | Attacking Midfielder |
| Striker | D. Nunez | J. Doku | Left Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | L. Diaz | E. Haaland | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
