Liverpool vs Luton Town Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

liverpool-vs-luton-town liverpool-vs-luton-town
TournamentPremier League
Timetable19:30 GMT, 21st Feb 24
PredictionLiverpool to Win!
Odds1.20
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
Liverpool to Win!
The best odds
1.
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 1.20
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Betiton
Odds : 1.18
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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.18
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liverpool-vs-luton-town liverpool-vs-luton-town

The Hatters have evolved into a fiercely competitive Premier League team after their inauspicious start this season, with their heroic 1-1 draw at home to Liverpool back in November testament to this. However, they’re slightly less formidable on their travels, having won nine points from the 33 available to them away from Kenilworth Road so far. Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have also won six of their previous seven EPL matches, while they’re unbeaten in 24 league games at Anfield since October 29th, 2022. So, Liverpool are the clear favourites among the best betting sites, but can Luton spring a surprise in the Northwest?

🏆 Liverpool vs Luton Town EPL Prediction

Liverpool and Luton have only met on 39 previous occasions and the Hatters have emerged victorious from just seven of these encounters. Their last win against the Reds came at Kenilworth Road back on February 23rd, 1991, while it should be noted that they’ve never won at Anfield in any competition.

The Hatters will certainly be up against it at the home of the league leaders, who have produced more shot-creating actions per 90 (33.04) and a higher xG value (54.6) than any other side. Klopp’s men have also excelled from a defensive perspective during this campaign, winning a league-high 57.1% of their aerial duels and completing more ball recoveries than anyone else (1,368).

The latter statistics highlight the relentless and physical nature of this current Liverpool team, who are more than capable of matching Luton’s famed intensity out of possession. They’ve also averaged 60.1% possession per 90 in the Premier League this season (compared to just 41.3% for Luton), so are likely to dominate the ball and may well keep the Hatters penned into their defensive third for long periods of the game.

While Diogo Jota is likely to miss out with injury, Liverpool may be boosted by the return of Mo Salah to their starting 11. He produced a goal and an assist from the bench against Brentford last time out, while he now has 24 goals involvements in just 21 EPL appearances this season. So, I expect the Reds to have too much verve and quality for a slightly tired-looking Luton side, who may also be without top scorer Elijah Adebayo at Anfield.

My Prediction: 🏆 Liverpool 3 – 0 Luton Town ⚽

💯 Liverpool vs Luton Town EPL Match Odds

When betting on the EPL clash between Liverpool and Luton Town, you’ll have access to a large and diverse range of football betting markets. These include the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the match, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Liverpool vs Luton Town: Match Winner

Liverpool’s lowly odds of around 1.18 imply an 84.74% probability of a home win, so they’re the clear favourites to defeat Luton at Anfield. Conversely, the Hatters can be backed as high as 13.00 to beat the Reds, implying just a 7.69% probability of an away win. The draw is also statistically unlikely, with a price of around 7.50 implying a 13.33% probability of the match ending in a tie.

Team
Liverpool to Win1.181.181.181.201.18
Luton13.0012.0012.0013.0012.00
Draw7.007.507.507.007.50

⚽ Liverpool vs Luton Town: Both Teams To Score

Luton have yet to keep a clean sheet on the road this season, with both teams having scored in eight of their 11 away matches to date. The Hatters have also scored in their last four away games in the Premier League, since drawing a blank at Old Trafford on November 11th. As for Liverpool, both sides have found the net in seven of their 12 home matches in the EPL (58%), with the Reds drawing just a single blank and keeping five clean sheets.

Yes/No
Yes1.671.781.761.701.67
No2.102.111.992.002.10

🥅 Liverpool vs Luton Town: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Liverpool’s 12 home matches this season have also produced 43 goals at a rate of 3.58 per game, with the Reds scoring 33 of these. The Hatters 11 away matches have been relatively high scoring too, yielding 40 goals in total at a rate of 3.63 per 90 minutes. However, Luton have conceded 25 of these goals, at a rate of 2.27 per game.

Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals1.291.331.271.291.33
Under 2.5 Goals3.303.403.453.403.40

✔️ Liverpool vs Luton Town - Betting Tips

The published odds clearly imply a high probability of Liverpool winning, while the bookies also favour more than 2.5 goals being scored at Anfield. However, these markets are incredibly short priced and offer little tangible value to punters, so how can you make the most of your bankroll when wagering on this Premier League clash?

  • Tip 1: Back Liverpool to Win With Over 2.5 Goals: Not only do the odds imply an 84.74% probability of a Liverpool win, but an average price of 1.29 suggests that there’s also a 77.51% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the Anfield clash. Certainly, Liverpool’s previous six EPL matches have produced a whopping 28 goals, while Luton’s last six games in the Premier League have seen 26 goals scored. So, consider backing Liverpool to win and over 2.5 goals being scored in a single wager at the enhanced price of 1.50 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Both Teams Not to Score: Luton have now scored in 12 consecutive Premier League games, while Liverpool have drawn just a single blank at Anfield in the 2023/24 campaign. However, Luton began to look fatigued towards the end of their weekend defeat at home to Manchester United, while the potential absence of powerful forward Elijah Adebayo could weaken an already threadbare squad. This, coupled with Liverpool’s likely dominance of the ball and territory, means that there’s value in backing both teams not to score at a price of 2.11 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Mohamed Salah as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you have access to any free bets on your account, you may want to consider backing the returning Mo Salah as an anytime goalscorer. The absence of fellow forward Jota means that he’s more likely to start at Anfield, while his 15 EPL goals this season have come from an xG of just 14.8. What’s more, 11 of his Premier League goals in 2023/24 have come at Anfield, while Luton’s trusted 3-4-2-1 formation does leave space to exploit in the fullback areas. You can back the Egyptian hitman to score anytime at a price of 1.67 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Liverpool Update

Liverpool’s 4-1 thumping of Brentford in West London means that they’ve now won six of their previous seven league games, while scoring 22 times and hitting three or more goals on five separate occasions. The Reds also remain top of the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, winning 23 points from the 30 available to them during this period. Of course, the Reds have also gone 24 league games unbeaten at Anfield, with Leeds United the last team to leave Anfield with three points in October 2022. So, notwithstanding Liverpool’s injury concerns, Luton will have it all to do in midweek!

Last 5 Games
Brentford 1
Liverpool 4
17.02.24
Premier League
Liverpool 3
Burnley 1
10.02.24
Premier League
Arsenal 3
Liverpool 1
04.02.24
Premier League
Liverpool 4
Chelsea 1
31.01.24
Premier League
Liverpool 5
Norwich City 2
28.01.24
FA Cup

Diogo Jota was stretchered off at Brentford last time out, while his knee injury is likely to keep him sidelined for a few weeks at least. Fellow striker Darwin Nunez also came off at half-time against the Bees with a knock, but he could yet be passed fit to feature against Luton. Curtis Jones is also being assessed after receiving a blow to his shin, while goalkeeper Alisson (hamstring injury), Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) and Dominik Szoboszlai (thigh) remained sidelined. Thiago (thigh) and young midfielder Stefan Bajcetic (fitness) are out until March, while Joel Matip is a long-term absentee as he continues his recovery from an ACL rupture.

PlayerReason
Diogo Jota Knee Injury
Darwin Nunez Knock
Curtis Jones Shin Injury
Alisson Hamstring Injury
Trent Alexander-Arnold Knee Injury
Dominik Szoboszlai Thigh Injury
Thiago Thigh Injury
Stefan Bajcetic Fitness
Joel Matip Knee Injury

2️⃣ Luton Town Update

Luton currently sit a respectable 13th in the Premier League form table, having accrued 11 points from their previous 10 matches. Interestingly, while they’ve only won once on the road in seven outings since September 30th, they’re unbeaten in three away from Kenilworth Road since a 3-1 defeat at Brentford on December 2nd. They’ve also scored in four consecutive away matches and 12 overall since November 11th, after failing to find the net in three of their first eight EPL games in 2023/24. So, they’ve evolved to become a highly competitive force with a genuine threat in front of goal, and Liverpool will need to be wary in defensive transitions and at set-pieces.

Last 5 Games
Luton Town 1
Man United 2
18.02.24
Premier League
Luton Town 1
Sheffield United 3
10.02.24
Premier League
Newcastle 4
Luton Town 4
03.02.24
Premier League
Luton Town 4
Brighton 0
30.01.24
Premier League
Everton 1
Luton Town 2
27.01.24
FA Cup

Of course, Luton lacked a little cutting edge at the weekend without Elijah Adebayo, who injured his thigh during the warm-up against Manchester United at Kenilworth Road. He’ll face a late fitness test ahead of the trip to Anfield. Mads Andersen is out until March with a calf injury, while Japanese right back Daiki Hashioka is a significant doubt with a knock. Marvellous Nakamba may not play again this season as he recovers from a knee injury, while club captain Tom Lockyer is facing an uncertain future after suffering a cardiac arrest during the abandoned match against Bournemouth in December.

PlayerReason
Elijah Adebayo Thigh Injury
Mads Andersen Calf Injury
Daiki Hashioka Knock
Marvelous Nakamba Knee Injury
Tom Lockyer Chest / Abdominal Injury

👕 Liverpool vs Luton Town - Potential Lineups

Pos. Liverpool
4-3-3
Luton Town
3-4-2-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper C. Kelleher T. Kaminski Goalkeeper
Right Back C. Bradley T. Mengi Right Centre Back
Centre Back I. Konaté G. Osho Centre Back
Centre Back V. van Dijk A. Bell Left Centre Back
Left Back A. Robertson C. Ogbene Right Wing Back
Midfielder R. Gravenberch M. Sambi Lokonga Midfielder
Midfielder W. Endo R. Barkley Midfielder
Midfielder A. Mac Allister A. Doughty Left Wing Back
Wide Forward M. Salah C. Morris Attacking Midfielder
Striker D. Nunez T. Chong Attacking Midfielder
Wide Forward L. Diaz C. Woodrow Striker

Liverpool to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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