Liverpool vs Brighton Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 14:00 GMT, 31st Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Liverpool to win! |
| Odds | 1.36 |
| Bookmaker | Palmslots Sport |
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For all the plaudits earned by Brighton manager Roberto De Zerbi, Brighton have endured a difficult Premier League campaign in 2023/24 so far. They’ve certainly lacked consistency and defensive solidity, and there’s no doubt that the effects of playing European football have gradually taken their toll. As for Liverpool, they remain firmly in the hunt for the EPL title and are currently only second on goal difference, while they’ll be keen to bounce back from their dramatic FA Cup quarterfinal defeat to Manchester United at Old Trafford. But which team is most likely to win according to Ireland’s best betting sites?
🏆 Liverpool vs Brighton EPL Prediction
These two teams produced a thrilling spectacle in the reverse fixture back in October, with Lewis Dunk’s late goal securing a 2-2 draw in a match where both Brighton and Liverpool led. What’s more, Brighton and Liverpool produced respective xG values of 2.23 and 2.51 during the 90 minutes, with this highlighting the open and entertaining nature of the fixture.
I expect more of the same at Anfield, with both teams committed to an expansive playing style and high defensive line. De Zerbi certainly won’t be deterred from his attack-minded philosophy, which has seen the Seagulls average 62.30% possession per 90 minutes this season and take 10,353 touches of the ball in the middle third (only Manchester City have completed more).
However, it’s highly likely that the Reds will look to harry Brighton’s measured, possession-oriented approach. After all, they’re one of the few teams to adopt a higher average defensive line than Brighton, with this helping them to attempt an impressive 84 tackles in the final third. Jurgen Klopp’s men have completed a league-high 1517 ball recoveries so far this season too, and will look to push Brighton back at every opportunity.
The last six meetings between these two sides in all competitions have produced 22 goals at a rate of 3.66 per game, so I expect plenty of goals and high-quality chances for both sides. However, I think Brighton’s defensive frailties will be laid bare once again, with Liverpool edging a high-scoring match in which both teams score.
My Prediction: 🏆 Liverpool 3 - 2 Brighton ⚽
💯 Liverpool vs Brighton EPL Match Odds
Liverpool vs Brighton is now one of the most anticipated Premier League encounters, both teams are renowned for their fearless, attacking approach. This also impacts the available betting markets and most likely outcomes, especially when it comes to the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes.
🏅 Liverpool vs Brighton: Match Winner
Backing the match winner remains the most popular football betting market, with the pre-game odds making Liverpool the clear favourites to defeat Brighton. In fact, you can back Liverpool to prevail at around 1.36, implying a 73.52% probability of a home win. Brighton are priced at 7.50 to triumph on average, so they have just a 13.33% chance of beating the Reds at Anfield.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to Win | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Brighton to Win | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.65 | 7.50 | 7.50 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.40 | 5.50 | 5.60 |
⚽ Liverpool vs Brighton: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 68% of Liverpool’s Premier League matches this season and 64% of their games at Anfield. Only Manchester United have stopped the Reds scoring in front of their home fans, while Klopp’s side have kept a total of six clean sheets. As for Brighton, both sides have also found the net in 64% of their away matches, although the Seagulls have only kept two clean sheets on the road this season.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| No | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.33 | 2.38 | 2.38 |
🥅 Liverpool vs Brighton: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The Reds have contested 14 matches in the EPL at Anfield this season, with these producing 50 goals at a rate of 3.57 per game. They’ve scored 38 of these goals too, at the impressive rate of 2.71 per 90. Interestingly, Brighton’s 14 top-flight encounters on the road have also yielded 50 goals, although De Zerbi’s men have shipped 28 of these at a rate of exactly 2.00 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.32 | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.02 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
✔️ Liverpool vs Brighton - Betting Tips
As you can see, there are plenty of intriguingly priced betting markets available when wagering on the match between Liverpool and Brighton. However, you’ll still need to base your selections on the most pertinent trend factors and insights, so here are some of my betting tips to help you navigate your preferred markets.
- Tip 1: Back Liverpool to Win With Over 3.5 Goals: Not only are the Reds the overwhelming favourites to defeat Brighton this weekend, but the pre-game odds also imply a 51.28% probability of over 3.5 goals being scored in the match. So, combining these selections in a single wager enables you to back Liverpool at enhanced odds, especially if you get on this at a price of 2.50 with PalmSlots Sports. Of course, most over/under betting takes place around the 2.5 goals line, but detailed form and head-to-head analysis highlight Liverpool vs Brighton as a potentially higher-scoring game.
- Tip 2: Back Mohamed Salah as an Anytime Goalscorer: While Mo Salah has only scored three times for Liverpool since the beginning of 2024, his appearance time has been severely impacted by injury and the burden of international duty. However, he’s now back to full fitness and primed to start at Anfield, where he has already scored 11 Premier League goals this season. He has also scored eight goals and registered six assists in just 13 EPL appearances against Brighton, so get on Salah as an anytime scorer at a price of 1.83 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Brighton to Score First: If you want to maximise the value of any free bets that you have on your account, you could consider backing Brighton to score first. After all, Liverpool have made a habit of coming from behind this season, recovering a staggering 23 points from losing positions and a total of 13 deficits so far. The Seagulls also took the lead in the reverse fixture at the AMEX back in October and tend to settle into their rhythm quickly when they’re allowed to. You can get on this at a price of 3.20 with Betway.
1️⃣ Liverpool Update
Liverpool have won 11 and drawn three of their 14 EPL home games this season, although they were unlucky to only leave Anfield with a point after an absorbing 1-1 draw with Man City on March 10th. Incredibly, they’re now unbeaten at Anfield in 26 Premier League matches since a shock 2-1 defeat to Leeds in October 2022, while this also remains their sole loss at home in the top flight in more than three years (and a staggering 55 encounters). The Reds also remain in superb form, having taken 25 points from the previous 30 available to them and scored 28 goals in their last 10 EPL games.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Man United 4 Liverpool 3 | 17.03.24 FA Cup |
| Liverpool 6 Sparta Prague 1 | 14.03.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Liverpool 1 Man City 1 | 10.03.24 Premier League |
| Sparta Prague 1 Liverpool 5 | 07.03.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Nottm Forest 0 Liverpool 1 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
Liverpool have been besieged by injury all season, with full-back Andy Robertson (ankle) the latest to face a spell on the sidelines after limping off during Scotland’s 1-0 friendly defeat to Northern Ireland. He joins fellow fullback Trent Alexander-Arnold (knee) on the injured list, while the visit of Brighton may also come too soon for Diogo Jota (knee), Stefan Bajcetic (fitness) and Alisson (hamstring). Thiago (thigh) also remains absent and Joel Matip is out for the season with an ACL injury, but both Curtis Jones (ankle) and Darwin Nunez (hamstring) are expected to fit in time for the weekend.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Andy Robertson | Ankle Injury |
| Darwin Nunez | Hamstring Injury |
| Curtis Jones | Ankle Injury |
| Alisson | Hamstring Injury |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | Knee Injury |
| Stefan Bajcetic | Fitness |
| Diogo Jota | Knee Injury |
| Thiago | Thigh Injury |
| Joel Matip | Ruptured ACL |
2️⃣ Brighton Update
Although Brighton sit in the relatively strong position in the Premier League, their form has continued to stutter after an initial run of five wins in their first six matches. Since September 24th, they’ve actually only won six of 22 EPL encounters, while enduring seven defeats and drawing on nine occasions. This means that they’ve taken just 25 points from the last 66 available to them and only 15 from their previous 10 matches in the top flight. De Zerbi’s men have won just once on the road in eight outings too, since a 3-2 victory over Nottingham Forest on November 25th.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Brighton 1 AS Roma 0 | 14.03.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Brighton 1 Nottm Forest 0 | 10.03.24 Premier League |
| AS Roma 4 Brighton 0 | 07.03.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Fulham 3 Brighton 0 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
| Wolves 1 Brighton 0 | 28.02.24 FA Cup |
Brighton may be buoyed by the return of both Joao Pedro (hamstring) and James Milner (thigh) ahead of the trip to Liverpool, although they’ll continue to be assessed this week and may not be fit enough to start. Otherwise, the Seagulls remain without long-term absentees Jack Hinshelwood (ankle), Kaoru Mitoma (lower back) and Solly March (knee), with the latter most likely ruled out for the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | Hamstring Injury |
| James Milner | Thigh Injury |
| Jack Hinshelwood | Ankle Injury |
| Kaoru Mitoma | Lower Back Injury |
| Solly March | Knee Injury |
👕 Liverpool vs Brighton - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Liverpool 4-3-3 | Brighton 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | C. Kelleher | B. Verbruggen | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | C. Bradley | J. Veltman | Right Back |
| Centre Back | I. Konate | J.P. van Hecke | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | V. van Dijk | L. Dunk | Centre Back |
| Left Back | K. Tsimikas | P. Estupiñán | Left Back |
| Midfielder | D. Szoboszlai | P. Groß | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | W. Endo | C. Quomah Baleba | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Mac Allister | J. Enciso | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | M. Salah | S. Adingra | Wide Forward |
| Striker | D. Nunez | E. Ferguson | Striker |
| Wide Forward | L. Diaz | D. Welbeck | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
