Crystal Palace vs Burnley Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 15:00 GMT, 24th Feb 24 |
| Prediction | Crystal Palace to Win! |
| Odds | 2.00 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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While it may be a stretch to describe Crystal Palace v Brighton as a relegation six-pointer, both teams will be desperate to win at Selhurst Park after their continued run of poor form of late. Interestingly, this will be new manager Palace manager Oliver Glasner’s first game in charge of Palace, and he’ll hope that he can inspire his charges to win for just the second time in six outings. The Clarets will also be aiming for a first victory in seven, with Vincent Kompany’s men now sitting seven points from safety in the Premier League. But which team will prevail here, and what have the best betting sites had to say?
🏆 Crystal Palace vs Burnley EPL Prediction
Palace have won five of their previous 10 matches against Burnley in the Premier League, including a controlled 2-0 victory at Turf Moor on November 4th. However, the Clarets are undefeated in three games at Selhurst Park since a 2-0 defeat on December 1st 2018, while they held Crystal Palace to a 1-1 draw on their last visit in February 2022.
Of course, Palace will be buoyed by the arrival of Glasner, whose aggressive, vertical playing style is likely to inspire at least some form of ‘new manager’ bounce at Selhurst Park. The Austrian also prefers a bold 3-4-3 formation, so Palace may well be more open and attack-oriented than under Roy Hodgson.
This is much needed, as not only are Palace the fourth lowest scorers in this season’s EPL with a paltry 28 goals, but their collective xG of 27.7 underlines their continued failure to create high-quality chances. The good news for Palace is that Burnley have fared worse according to both metrics this season, scoring just 25 goals while generating an xG value of 23.4.
Ultimately, I expect Palace to be on the front foot from the outset here, although Glasner will maintain a compact defensive shape that will guard against transitions. Because of this and Burnley’s run of just one win in 11 EPL encounters, I’m backing Crystal Palace to start their new era with a win and a clean sheet in South London.
My Prediction: 🏆 Crystal Palace 2 – 0 Burnley ⚽
💯 Crystal Palace vs Burnley EPL Match Odds
Home-field advantage could be key here, especially with Burnley having taken just eight points from the 36 available to them on the road this season. But how is a Palace win being priced, and what odds can you get on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in the game?
🏅 Crystal Palace vs Burnley: Match Winner
Burnley’s struggles on the road have helped to make Palace favourites this weekend, with Crystal Palace’ average price of 1.91 implying a 52.35% probability of a home win. For their part, Burnley can be backed at around 4.00 to triumph in South London, suggesting that they have just a 25% chance of winning at Selhurst Park.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to Win | 1.91 | 1.95 | 1.91 | 2.00 | 1.95 |
| Burnley to Win | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
⚽ Crystal Palace vs Burnley: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in eight of Palace’s 12 home matches this season, including seven of their last eight (Crystal Palace failed to score in three of their first four games at Selhurst Park in 2023/24). Both sides have also found the net in eight of Burnley’s 12 away matches, with the Clarets during three blanks and keeping just a single clean sheet (against Fulham on December 23rd).
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| No | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.87 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
🥅 Crystal Palace vs Burnley: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The 12 EPL matches played at Selhurst Park this season have also produced 30 goals in total, at a rate of exactly 2.5 per game. Burnley’s 12 away games have seen slightly more goalmouth action, yielding 35 goals at a rate of 2.91 per 90 minutes. So, the bookies are split on the over/under market for this game, although the pre-game odds imply a slightly higher probability of under 2.5 goals being scored.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.05 | 2.10 | 2.11 | 2.10 | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.73 | 1.67 |
✔️ Crystal Palace vs Burnley - Betting Tips
Regardless of which football betting markets you find appealing ahead of the clash between Crystal Palace and Burnley, you’ll need to focus on either identifying or creating value in order to make the most of your bankroll. Here are some betting tips and insights to keep in mind:
- Tip 1: Back Crystal Palace to Win Outright: While Palace went seven home games without a win between September 3rd and December 30th, they’ve won two of their previous three at Selhurst Park and scored three times in both victories (over Brentford and Sheffield United). Palace were also victorious at Turf Moor in November, despite having just 32% of the ball and recording only three attempts on target. However, while neither side has been particularly convincing this season, there’s value in backing Palace to win outright at a price of 2.00 with PalmSlots Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Palace to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored: If you want to create further value in match betting, consider backing Palace to win with under 2.5 goals scored at the enhanced price of 4.00 with Betway. Just as Palace are the clear favourites to prevail at Selhurst Park, an average price of 1.67 implies a 59.08% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in this EPL clash. For all their possession and progressive playing style, Burnley also struggle to create high-quality chances, especially on the road.
- Tip 3: Back Palace to Win With a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: Palace have scored three times in each of their three home league wins this season, while five of Burnley’s eight defeats on the road have been by a margin of two goals or more. With Palace also likely to be invigorated by the incoming Glasner and expected to adopt a more attacking style of play, there’s a case to be made for Palace recording a comprehensive win in South London. So, if you want to make use of any free bets on your account, get on Palace to win with a handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 3.80 with LegendPlay.
1️⃣ Crystal Palace Update
After taking only nine points from the last 30 available to them, Crystal Palace have slumped to 15th place and currently sit just five points above the relegation zone. However, they were organised and combative when securing a crucial point at Everton on Monday night, while the arrival of Glasner should help to refocus Palace’s survival efforts and create a more attacking style of play. Crystal Palace may also be boosted by the return of both Will Hughes and creative fulcrum Eberechi Eze at the weekend, with the latter having contributed six goals involvements in 16 EPL appearances this season and 4.88 shot-creating actions per 90.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Everton 1 Crystal Palace 1 | 19.02.24 Premier League |
| Crystal Palace 1 Chelsea 3 | 12.02.24 Premier League |
| Brighton 4 Crystal Palace 1 | 03.02.24 Premier League |
| Crystal Palace 3 Sheffield United 2 | 30.01.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 5 Crystal Palace 0 | 20.01.24 Premier League |
The potential return of Eze (thigh injury) and Will Hughes (ankle) would be welcome ahead of Burnley’s visit, with the former set to benefit from Glasner’s more expansive style of play. Centre back Marc Guehi may also have recovered from a knee injury in time for the weekend. However, winger Michael Olise remains sidelined until April with a hamstring injury, while youngster Jesurun Rak-Sakyi has also been ruled out with a thigh strain. Rob Holding (foot) won’t return until May at the earliest, while Cheick Doucoure is out for the season having damaged his Achilles tendon.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze | Thigh Injury |
| Will Hughes | Ankle Injury |
| Marc Guehi | Knee Injury |
| Michael Olise | Hamstring Injury |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | Thigh Injury |
| Rob Holding | Foot Injury |
| Cheick Doucoure | Achilles Tendon |
2️⃣ Burnley Update
Burnley are mired at the foot of the EPL form table, having won just one of their previous 11 matches and earned a paltry six points during this period. They’ve scored just 25 goals in this season’s Premier League too, while their xG of 23.4 reflects their inability to turn possession and positive intent into high-quality chances. While they’ve accrued slightly more points on the road (eight) than they have at home this season (five), they’ve only won one of their previous nine away matches since a dramatic 2-1 victory at Luton on October 3rd. The Clarets are now seven points from safety and need to start winning games urgently if they’re to retain their top-flight status.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Burnley 0 Arsenal 5 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
| Liverpool 3 Burnley 1 | 10.02.24 Premier League |
| Burnley 2 Fulham 2 | 03.02.24 Premier League |
| Man City 3 Burnley 1 | 31.01.23 Premier League |
| Burnley 1 Luton 1 | 12.01.23 Premier League |
Burnley are expected to be without Aaron Ramsey for the trip to London, with the young midfielder having incurred a knee injury. Jordan Beyer is also sidelined until March with a thigh injury, while Luca Koleosho (knee) and striker Lyle Foster (muscle) have been ruled out of contention until the beginning of May at the earliest. Former Saints winger Nathan Redmond (thigh) is out for the season with a serious thigh injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Aaron Ramsey | Knee Injury |
| Jordan Beyer | Thigh Injury |
| Luca Koleosho | Knee Injury |
| Lyle Foster | Muscle Injury |
| Nathan Redmond | Thigh Injury |
👕 Crystal Palace vs Burnley - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Crystal Palace 3-4-3 | Burnley 4-4-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | S. Johnstone | J. Trafford | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | M. Guehi | L. Assignon | Right Back |
| Centre Back | J. Andersen | D. O‘Shea | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | C. Richards | M. Estève | Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | D. Muñoz | H. Delcroix | Left Back |
| Midfielder | J. Lerma | Jóhann Berg Guðmundsson | Right Midfielder |
| Midfielder | W. Hughes | S. Berge | Central Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | T. Mitchell | J. Brownhill | Central Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | J. Ayew | W. Odobert | Left Midfielder |
| Striker | O. Édouard | D. Fofana | Striker |
| Wide Forward | E. Eze | Z. Amdouni | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
