Chelsea vs West Ham Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

chelsea-vs-west-ham-logo chelsea-vs-west-ham-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 5th May 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds4.50
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
The best odds
1.
Bet €100 and win €450 if the match is drawn.
Bonus:
2.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 4.50
Bet €100 and win €450 if the match is drawn.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 4.50
Bet €100 and win €450 if the match is drawn.
Bonus:
€10
chelsea-vs-west-ham-logo chelsea-vs-west-ham-logo

Chelsea’s topsy turvy season took a turn for the better last week, as Mauricio Pochettino’s men earned a deserved point at Aston Villa and comfortably defeated bitter rivals Spurs at Stamford Bridge. The Blues have now only lost one of their previous 11 Premier League matches, although this sequence has also included five draws. As for West Ham, they’ve won just one of their last eight top flight games, while they were thumped 5-2 by Crystal Palace on their previous outing on the road. This remains a tough match to call, however, but how are Ireland’s best best betting sites pricing all potential match outcomes here?

🏆 Chelsea vs West Ham EPL Prediction

Although Chelsea dominated much of the reverse fixture at the London Stadium in August, they were ultimately defeated 3-1 by the Hammers. Moises Caicedo endured a torrid debut off the bench as he conceded an injury-time penalty, while Enzo Fernandez also missed from the spot for the Blues. However, West Ham were clinical in the attacking third and significantly outperformed their xG of 1.71.

This match was typical of Chelsea’s difficult season, with many of their issues revolving around a lack of efficiency at both ends of the pitch. For example, they’ve underperformed their collective xG of 68.89 by -5.89 goals this season (and missed 66 big chances in the Premier League) and made the most errors (23) leading to an opponent’s shot on goal in 2023/24.

Conversely, the Hammers have made just nine mistakes leading to an opponent’s attempt on goal, while converting a high percentage of the chances that they create and scoring 0.37 goals per shot on target in the EPL. West Ham have also executed 23 defensive actions that have resulted in a shot attempt, highlighting their desire to defend deep and launch direct counterattacks.

Chelsea also average 59.0% possession this season, so while dominate the ball from the off and look to sustain attacks in the final third. The question that remains is whether the Blues can repeat the same level of attacking and defensive efficiency they displayed when beating Spurs last time out, but I’m tipping the Hammers to be competitive and leave Stamford Bridge with a point.

My Prediction: 🏆 Chelsea 2 – 2 West Ham ⚽

💯 Chelsea vs West Ham EPL Match Odds

Chelsea’s unpredictability and West Ham’s threat in transition makes the win market difficult to call here. However, there are a range of alternative football betting markets that you can target, including both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored. But how are these being priced by Ireland’s market-leading sportsbooks?

🏅 Chelsea vs West Ham: Match Winner

Chelsea are the pre-game favourites to defeat the Hammers at Stamford Bridge, with their average odds of 1.62 implying a 61.72% probability of a home win. Alternatively, you can back West Ham to prevail at around 4.50, suggesting that they have just a 22.22% chance of triumphing in West London. The draw is statistically more likely than an away win, with odds of 4.33 implying a 23.09% probability of honours ending even.

Team
Chelsea to Win1.601.621.621.601.62
West Ham to Win4.504.504.455.004.40
Draw4.334.504.504.334.50

⚽ Chelsea vs West Ham: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have found the net in nine of Chelsea’s 17 home matches this season (52.94%). The Blues have now kept five clean sheets at Stamford Bridge and failed to score on three occasions. Both sides have found the net in 13 of West Ham’s 17 away games in the Premier League (76.47%), with the Hammers keeping just a single clean sheet on the road and failing to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.401.451.421.501.44
No2.632.702.742.502.63

🥅 Chelsea vs West Ham: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea’s 17 home matches have also witnessed a whopping 62 goals at a rate of 3.64 per game. The Blues have scored 37 of these at a rate of 2.17 per 90 minutes. The Hammers’s 17 matches on the road have produced even more goals (66) at the higher rate of 3.88 per 90. Worryingly, they’ve conceded 38 of these goals at an average of 2.23 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.361.401.381.441.45
Under 2.5 Goals2.802.882.823.002.75

✔️ Chelsea vs West Ham - Betting Tips

Chelsea’s unpredictability makes this an incredibly tough match to call, while it should be noted that the Hammers tend to raise their game against better opposition (this was borne out during their 2-2 draw with Liverpool last time out). The good news is that you can access multiple markets and combination bets when wagering on Chelsea vs West Ham, but which of these offers the most value?

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: Although Chelsea have lost just one of their previous 11 Premier League matches, they’ve drawn five of these games and often struggled to translate their dominance of the ball into decisive results. The Hammers have also held Tottenham and Liverpool to competitive score draws recently, while forward Jarrod Bowen returned to goalscoring form against the Reds and now has 16 EPL goals this season from 73 attempts and an xG of just 9.9. So, consider backing the draw at the competitive price of 4.50 with Royalist Play.
  • Tip 2: Back Michail Antonio as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to leverage one of your available free bets, you could explore the anytime goalscorer market. It’s interesting to note that Chelsea have conceded 10 Premier League goals from set pieces this season, while the Hammers have scored the exact same number from corners and free kicks in 2023/24 (only Arsenal have more). Striker Michail Antonio is a huge threat from dead ball situations and has scored three goals in his previous six appearances, so get on him as an anytime scorer at a price of 4.75 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: The reverse fixture saw four goals scored in total, while West Ham’s 17 away matches have yielded an average of 3.88 goals per 90 minutes. Chelsea’s previous six home games have also produced an astonishing 30 goals at a rate of exactly 5.00 per 90, with the Blues scoring 19 of these and conceding 11 times. Remember, Chelsea are also error prone and vulnerable to rapid counterattacks, the type that West Ham execute so well. So, get on over 3.5 goals being scored here at a price of 2.10 with Betiton.

1️⃣ Chelsea Update

April has perfectly embodied Chelsea’s inconsistent and often frustrating season, as it has seen the Blues beat Manchester United and put six goals past Everton while also drawing at bottom club Sheffield United and losing 5-0 to Arsenal. So, although they’ve lost just one of their previous 11 Premier League matches, they’ve yet to win consecutive games during this sequence. Overall, they’ve taken 20 points in total during this run, while scoring 27 times and conceding 20. So, these 11 encounters have produced 47 goals at both ends of the pitch, at the impressive rate of 4.27 per 90 minutes.

Last 5 Games
Chelsea 2
Tottenham 0
02.05.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Chelsea 2
27.04.24
Premier League
Arsenal 5
Chelsea 0
23.04.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Chelsea 0
20.04.24
FA Cup
Chelsea 6
Everton 0
15.04.24
Premier League

Chelsea were without 14 first team players against Spurs, including recent absentees Axel Disasi (knock), Thiago Silva (groin injury), Carney Chukwuemeka (knee) and Raheem Sterling (lower back). Sterling will be assessed ahead of a potential return this weekend. However, the match against West Ham will definitely come a little too soon for Reece James (hamstring), Levi Colwill (ankle), Robert Sanchez (illness) and Christopher Nkunku (thigh injury). Ben Chilwell (knee), Enzo Fernandez (groin) and Malo Gusto (knee) will also miss out at the Bridge. Lesley Ugochukwu (thigh) is unavailable too, while Romeo Lavia (thigh) and Wesley Fofana (knee) won’t play again this season.

PlayerReason
Axel Disasi Knock
Thiago Silva Groin Injury
Carney Chukwuemeka Knee Injury
Raheem Sterling Lower Back Injury
Ben Chilwell Knee Injury
Enzo Fernandez Groin Injury
Robert Sanchez Illness
Malo Gusto Illness
Levi Colwill Ankle Injury
Christopher Nkunku Thigh Injury
Reece James Hamstring Injury
Lesley Ugochukwu Thigh Injury
Romeo Lavia Thigh Injury
Wesley Fofana Knee Injury

2️⃣ West Ham Update

Although West Ham showcased impressive resilience and quality when drawing 2-2 with Liverpool last time out, the Hammers are now entrenched in a run of just one win in their previous eight Premier League matches. They’ve scored 13 times during this sequence and conceded 18 in total, including five against Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on April 21st. Since February 17th, the Hammers have taken 13 points from the 30 available to them in the EPL, winning three and losing three of their 10 matches during this period. However, the recent return of Jarrod Bowen to form and fitness has provided a timely boon for beleaguered manager David Moyes.

Last 5 Games
West Ham 2
Liverpool 2
27.04.24
Premier League
Crystal Palace 5
West Ham 2
21.04.24
Premier League
West Ham 1
Bayer Leverkusen 1
18.04.24
UEFA Europa League
West Ham 0
Fulham 2
14.04.24
Premier League
Bayer Leverkusen 2
West Ham 0
11.04.24
UEFA Europa League

Although Bowen may be fit again for the Hammers, central defensive pair Nayef Aguerd (ankle injury) and Konstantinos Mavropanos (knock) continue to be assessed and remain doubts ahead of the weekend. The good news is that youth team player George Earthy may be back in contention after suffering a recent concussion, but he’ll face a late fitness test too prior to the weekend.

PlayerReason
Nayef Aguerd Ankle Injury
Konstantinos Mavropanos Knock
George Earthy Concussion

👕 Chelsea vs West Ham - Potential Lineups

Pos. Chelsea
4-2-3-1
West Ham
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Petrović A. Areola Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Gilchrist V. Coufal Right Back
Centre Back T. Chalobah K. Zouma Centre Back
Centre Back B. Badiashile A. Ogbanna Centre Back
Left Back M. Cucurella Emerson Left Back
Midfielder M. Caicedo T. Soucek Midfielder
Midfielder C. Gallagher E. Alvarez Midfielder
Midfielder C. Palmer L. Paquetá Midfielder
Wide Forward N. Madueke J. Bowen Wide Forward
Striker N. Jackson M. Antonio Striker
Wide Forward M. Mudryk M. Kudus Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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