Chelsea vs Manchester Utd Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture at Old Trafford was played on December 6th, with a Scott McTominay brace securing a deserved 2-1 win for Man United. The Red Devils attempted a staggering 28 shots on goal and accumulated an xG of 4.46 during the 90 minutes, while Bruno Fernandes also missed a penalty in a match that Erik ten Hag’s men dominated.

Of course, Chelsea weren’t completely devoid of chances at Old Trafford, with their own xG of 1.52 indicative of a team that’s creative but wasteful in front of goal. The Blues rank fifth in the EPL in terms of their total xG value (54.3), but they’ve outperformed this by -6.3 goals and missed 55 big chances in 2023/24 so far (only Brentford and Liverpool have squandered more).

United have actually become a more efficient pressing team under ten Hag in 2023/24, completing a total of 1,442 ball recoveries and attempting 81 tackles in the final third. However, they’ve also become increasingly vulnerable in defensive transition, conceding 499 attempts on their goal and more than 20 in each of their last three EPL outings.

So, I expect another open and chance-laden encounter in which both teams' vulnerabilities are laid bare, with Chelsea likely to edge possession and United remaining a huge threat on the break. However, Chelsea haven’t beaten United in seven matches since July 2020, and I’m tipping the Red Devils to edge this one.

💯 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd EPL Match Odds

When it comes to the most popular Chelsea vs Man United football betting markets, you can wager on the match winner, BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my take on the latest odds!

🏅 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: Match Winner

You can back Chelsea to defeat Man United at an average price of 1.90, which implies a 52.63% probability of a home win. You can bet on the Red Devils to win at around 3.30, with these odds suggesting that ten Hag’s men have just a 30.30% chance of prevailing in West London. The draw is the statistically least likely outcome at 4.00, so there’s a 25% chance of the match ending in a tie.

Team
Chelsea to Win	1.87	2.00	1.88	1.91	1.91
Man United to Win	3.40	3.40	3.30	3.40	3.30
Draw	4.20	3.80	3.95	4.00	4.00

⚽ Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 57% of Chelsea’s home matches this season, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side having kept three clean sheets and failed to score on another three occasions. Both competing sides have found the net in 53% of Man United’s away EPL games, with the Red Devils keeping four clean sheets on the road (but none in their last seven). They’ve also drawn four blanks away from home.

Yes/No
Yes	1.33	1.38	1.33	1.33	1.36
No	3.00	3.00	2.97	3.00	3.00

🥅 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea have contested 14 home matches in the 2023/24 Premier League, which have yielded 47 goals at a rate of 3.35 per game. The Blues have also scored 25 times at Stamford Bridge, at a rate of 1.78 per 90 minutes. The 15 away matches played by Man United have produced slightly fewer goals in total (39 at a rate of 2.60 per game), while the Red Devils have produced a negative goal difference of -1 on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.33	1.38	1.34	1.36	1.36
Under 2.5 Goals	3.00	3.00	2.89	3.00	3.00

1️⃣ Chelsea Update

Chelsea’s incredible inconsistency means that they remain 12th in the Premier League, although they’ve experienced a slight uptick in form in recent matches. In fact, the Blues sit fifth in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, having taken 18 points from the 30 available to them during this period. This is one more point than United have taken during the same timeframe. They’re also unbeaten in five Premier League matches dating back to a 4-2 home defeat by Wolves on February 4th, with this their longest such sequence in the whole of the 2023/24 campaign.

Malo Gusto returned from illness to face Burnley, while Carney Chukwuemeka (knock) is also fit again and could feature against Man United. However, Ben Chilwell is now a doubt with illness, while Robert Sanchez (muscle) and Trevor Chalobah (knock) will also be assessed ahead of kick-off. Levi Colwill (foot) has been ruled out of the clash against United, as have Lesley Ugochukwu (hamstring), Christopher Nkunku (thigh) and club skipper Reece James (also thigh). Both Wesley Fofana (ACL) and Romeo Lavia (thigh) have been sidelined for the remainder of the season.

2️⃣ Man United Update

Man United’s form has also improved since the turn of the year, with the Red Devils winning five of their nine League matches in 2024 and taking 17 points from the 27 available to them. Their front three has also found some form during this sequence, scoring 12 goals between them and contributing six assists. However, it’s incredible to note that the Red Devils have conceded 120 shots on goal in their previous five Premier League games, including more than 20 against Luton, Man City, Everton and Brentford last time out. This means that Chelsea is sure to get a chance against United at the Bridge.

Both Victor Lindelof (hamstring) and Lisandro Martinez (calf) have been ruled out of contention for the trip to West London, although Jonny Evans (muscle), Harry Maguire (knock) and Raphael Varane (muscle) will be assessed ahead of kick-off. However, the match may come a little too soon for reserve keeper Altay Bayindir (muscle strain), while Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Anthony Martial (groin) will remain absent for another three weeks or so. Luke Shaw is also out for the foreseeable future with a thigh injury, but Amad Diallo returns after serving a one-match suspension.

👕 Chelsea vs Man United - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.