Chelsea vs Manchester Utd Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

chelsea-v-man-utd chelsea-v-man-utd
TournamentPremier League
Timetable20:15 GMT, 4th April 24
PredictionMan United to Win!
Man United to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 3.50
Bet €100 and win €350 if Man United win.
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 3.40
Bet €100 and win €340 if Man United win.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 3.40
Bet €100 and win €340 if Man United win.

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Two of the Premier League’s most frustratingly inconsistent teams do battle at Stamford Bridge this week, although the Blues will look to extend their unbeaten top-flight run to five games against Manchester United. As for the Red Devils, they’ve taken 16 points from the 24 available to them since the beginning of February in the Premier League but were disappointing during their 1-1 draw with Brentford last time out. But which side do I think will win in West London, and how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing the various match outcomes?

🏆 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture at Old Trafford was played on December 6th, with a Scott McTominay brace securing a deserved 2-1 win for Man United. The Red Devils attempted a staggering 28 shots on goal and accumulated an xG of 4.46 during the 90 minutes, while Bruno Fernandes also missed a penalty in a match that Erik ten Hag’s men dominated.

Of course, Chelsea weren’t completely devoid of chances at Old Trafford, with their own xG of 1.52 indicative of a team that’s creative but wasteful in front of goal. The Blues rank fifth in the EPL in terms of their total xG value (54.3), but they’ve outperformed this by -6.3 goals and missed 55 big chances in 2023/24 so far (only Brentford and Liverpool have squandered more).

United have actually become a more efficient pressing team under ten Hag in 2023/24, completing a total of 1,442 ball recoveries and attempting 81 tackles in the final third. However, they’ve also become increasingly vulnerable in defensive transition, conceding 499 attempts on their goal and more than 20 in each of their last three EPL outings.

So, I expect another open and chance-laden encounter in which both teams' vulnerabilities are laid bare, with Chelsea likely to edge possession and United remaining a huge threat on the break. However, Chelsea haven’t beaten United in seven matches since July 2020, and I’m tipping the Red Devils to edge this one.

My Prediction: 🏆 Chelsea 1 – 2 Man United ⚽

💯 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd EPL Match Odds

When it comes to the most popular Chelsea vs Man United football betting markets, you can wager on the match winner, BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my take on the latest odds!

🏅 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: Match Winner

You can back Chelsea to defeat Man United at an average price of 1.90, which implies a 52.63% probability of a home win. You can bet on the Red Devils to win at around 3.30, with these odds suggesting that ten Hag’s men have just a 30.30% chance of prevailing in West London. The draw is the statistically least likely outcome at 4.00, so there’s a 25% chance of the match ending in a tie.

Chelsea to Win1.872.001.881.911.91
Man United to Win3.403.403.303.403.30

⚽ Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 57% of Chelsea’s home matches this season, with Mauricio Pochettino’s side having kept three clean sheets and failed to score on another three occasions. Both competing sides have found the net in 53% of Man United’s away EPL games, with the Red Devils keeping four clean sheets on the road (but none in their last seven). They’ve also drawn four blanks away from home.


🥅 Chelsea vs Manchester Utd: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea have contested 14 home matches in the 2023/24 Premier League, which have yielded 47 goals at a rate of 3.35 per game. The Blues have also scored 25 times at Stamford Bridge, at a rate of 1.78 per 90 minutes. The 15 away matches played by Man United have produced slightly fewer goals in total (39 at a rate of 2.60 per game), while the Red Devils have produced a negative goal difference of -1 on the road.

Over 2.5 Goals1.331.381.341.361.36
Under 2.5 Goals3.003.002.893.003.00

✔️ Chelsea vs Manchester Utd - Betting Tips

Chelsea are the clear favourites to defeat Man United at Stamford Bridge, but the win market odds arguably don’t reflect the evenly matched nature of their two sides or their respective inconsistencies. But how should this help to inform your bet selections ahead of the match? Here are some betting tips to keep in mind:

  • Tip 1: Back Man United to Win: While the pre-game odds only imply a 30.30% probability of a Man United win, the Red Devils are unbeaten in seven matches against the Blues in all competitions (and 12 in the Premier League). They’ve also accumulated xG values of 4.92 and 4.46 in their last two victories over the Blues, with Chelsea struggling to contain United’s attacking quality in transition. So, there may be some value in backing Man United to win outright here, especially at a price of 3.40 with Royalistplay.
  • Tip 2: Back Man United to Win by a Single Goal: If there is to be a winner in this match, it’s likely to be by the odd goal. Certainly, 12 of United’s 15 Premier League wins in 2023/24 have been by just a single goal, including the 2-1 victory over Chelsea back on December 6th at Old Trafford. United and Chelsea have respective goal differences of zero and +2 at the time of writing too, with both sides struggling to achieve decisive victories this season. You can get on United to win by a single goal at the enhanced price of price of 6.00 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Cole Palmer as an Anytime Goalscorer: Cole Palmer remains Chelsea’s most prominent goal threat, with the former Man City academy graduate contributing 13 goals and eight assists in 25 EPL appearances so far this season. He has also scored six times in his previous nine matches and is the Blues’ regular penalty taker, while he notched at Old Trafford during the reverse fixture. You can back Cole Palmer as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.50 with LegendPlay, while this is a good use of any free bets that you have on your account.

1️⃣ Chelsea Update

Chelsea’s incredible inconsistency means that they remain 12th in the Premier League, although they’ve experienced a slight uptick in form in recent matches. In fact, the Blues sit fifth in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, having taken 18 points from the 30 available to them during this period. This is one more point than United have taken during the same timeframe. They’re also unbeaten in five Premier League matches dating back to a 4-2 home defeat by Wolves on February 4th, with this their longest such sequence in the whole of the 2023/24 campaign.

Last 5 Games
Chelsea 2
Burnley 2
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Leicester City 2
FA Cup
Chelsea 3
Newcastle 2
Premier League
Brentford 2
Chelsea 2
Premier League
Chelsea 3
Leeds United 2
FA Cup

Malo Gusto returned from illness to face Burnley, while Carney Chukwuemeka (knock) is also fit again and could feature against Man United. However, Ben Chilwell is now a doubt with illness, while Robert Sanchez (muscle) and Trevor Chalobah (knock) will also be assessed ahead of kick-off. Levi Colwill (foot) has been ruled out of the clash against United, as have Lesley Ugochukwu (hamstring), Christopher Nkunku (thigh) and club skipper Reece James (also thigh). Both Wesley Fofana (ACL) and Romeo Lavia (thigh) have been sidelined for the remainder of the season.

Trevor Chalobah Knock
Christopher Nkunku Hamstring Injury
Ben Chilwell Illness
Levi Colwill Foot Injury
Romeo Lavia Thigh Injury
Robert Sanchez Muscle Injury
Reece James Thigh Injury
Wesley Fofana ACL Injury
Lesley Ugochukwu Hamstring Strain

2️⃣ Man United Update

Man United’s form has also improved since the turn of the year, with the Red Devils winning five of their nine League matches in 2024 and taking 17 points from the 27 available to them. Their front three has also found some form during this sequence, scoring 12 goals between them and contributing six assists. However, it’s incredible to note that the Red Devils have conceded 120 shots on goal in their previous five Premier League games, including more than 20 against Luton, Man City, Everton and Brentford last time out. This means that Chelsea is sure to get a chance against United at the Bridge.

Last 5 Games
Brentford 1
Man United 1
Premier League
Man United 4
Liverpool 3
FA Cup
Man United 2
Everton 0
Premier League
Man City 3
Man United 1
Premier League
Nottingham Forest 0
Man United 1
FA Cup

Both Victor Lindelof (hamstring) and Lisandro Martinez (calf) have been ruled out of contention for the trip to West London, although Jonny Evans (muscle), Harry Maguire (knock) and Raphael Varane (muscle) will be assessed ahead of kick-off. However, the match may come a little too soon for reserve keeper Altay Bayindir (muscle strain), while Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Anthony Martial (groin) will remain absent for another three weeks or so. Luke Shaw is also out for the foreseeable future with a thigh injury, but Amad Diallo returns after serving a one-match suspension.

Luke Shaw Thigh Injury
Lisandro Martinez Calf Injury
Jonny Evans Muscle Injury
Harry Maguire Knock
Altay Bayindir Muscle Strain
Tyrell Malacia Ineligible
Raphael Varane Muscle Injury
Anthony Martial Groin Injury
Victor Lindelof Hamstring Injury

👕 Chelsea vs Man United - Potential Lineups

Pos. Chelsea
Man United
Goalkeeper D. Petrovic A. Onana Goalkeeper
Right Back M. Gusto A. Wan-Bissaka Right Back
Centre Back A. Disasi R. Varane Centre Back
Centre Back B. Badiashile J. Evans Centre Back
Left Back M. Cucurella D. Dalot Left Back
Midfielder E. Fernandez K. Mainoo Midfielder
Midfielder M. Caicedo S. McTominay Midfielder
Midfielder C. Gallagher B. Fernandes Midfielder
Wide Forward C. Palmer A. Garnacho Wide Forward
Striker N. Jackson R. Højlund Striker
Wide Forward R. Sterling M. Rashford Wide Forward

Man United to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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