Burnley vs Brentford Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Burnley vs Brentford EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture took place on October 21st, 2023 with Brentford recording a comprehensive 3-0 win over the Clarets. The Bees recorded 23 attempts on goal (compared to just six for Burnley), while Vincent Kompany’s men managed just a single shot on target despite having 50% possession. Brentford and Burnley also produced respective xG values of 3.16 and 0.69 per 90 minutes, further highlighting the Bees’ dominance.

Keeping the ball hasn’t been an issue for Burnley this season, as they average 46.2% possession per 90 minutes this season (compared to 44.40% for Brentford). However, they’ve failed to make the most of this possession, recording just 3516 touches in the attacking third and producing the league’s second-lowest xG of 25.6.

Burnley have also struggled in the defensive third of the pitch, having won just 43.00% of their aerial duels in 2023/24 (no other side has fared worse according to this metric). They’ve only won 259 tackles too, which is the lowest tally of any team in the bottom half of the table. The Claret’s average defensive line is also noticeably high and measures 45.22 from their own goal, creating plenty of space for their opponents to exploit when they do lose the ball.

While Brentford can be wasteful in front of goal and have missed 52 big chances in this season’s EPL (only Liverpool have missed more), they’re more than capable of creating openings and remain a highly effective counter-pressing side. They also displayed genuine resilience during a 2-1 defeat at Arsenal last time out, and I expect them to have a little too much for Burnley at Turf Moor.

💯 Burnley vs Brentford EPL Match Odds

The great thing about Premier League wagering is the number of football betting markets that it unlocks, including the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in each game. But how are these markets currently being priced ahead of Burnley vs Brentford?

🏅 Burnley vs Brentford: Match Winner

It should come as no surprise that Brentford are the favourites to defeat Burnley, with their average odds of 2.10 implying a 47.61% probability of an away win. As for the Clarets, they can be backed at around 3.20 to record just their second home win of the season, suggesting that they have a 31.25% chance of prevailing.

Team
Burnley to Win	3.25	3.20	3.10	3.25	3.30
Brentford to Win	2.10	2.10	2.05	2.10	2.10
Draw	3.50	3.50	3.60	3.50	3.60

⚽ Burnley vs Brentford: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in just six of Burnley’s 14 home matches this season (43%), with the Clarets failing to score on seven occasions and keeping a single clean sheet (during the 5-0 win over Sheffield United in December). Both sides have found the net in seven of the Bees’ 14 away games in 2023/24, with Thomas Frank’s team keeping three clean sheets and drawing four blanks on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.60	1.65	1.55	1.62	1.62
No	2.25	2.20	2.24	2.20	2.20

🥅 Burnley vs Brentford: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Burnley’s 14 matches at Turf Moor have also produced 47 goals in total, at a rate of 3.35 per game. However, the Clarets have only scored 13 of these goals at a rate of just 0.92 per 90. Brentford’s 14 away contests have yielded 39 goals at a rate of 2.78 per game, so the odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in Lancashire.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.70	1.70	1.66	1.67	1.73
Under 2.5 Goals	2.05	2.05	2.06	2.05	2.00

1️⃣ Burnley Update

Burnley have endured a miserable Premier League campaign so far, losing 20 of their 28 matches and winning just three times overall. Only one of these victories has come at Turf Moor too, while they’re winless in six in front of their home fans since a 5-0 thumping of fellow strugglers Sheffield United on December 2nd. The Blades (21 goals) are the only side to score less than Burnley home and away in the Premier League (26), while the Clarets have shipped 62 goals and three or more in 11 games through 2023/24. They’re now seven points adrift of safety and desperately need three points against the Bees.

Jordan Beyer has been ruled out for Burnley with a thigh injury, while left winger Luca Koleosho won’t return until May as he continues his recovery from a knee complaint. Lyle Foster will also miss much of the remainder of the campaign with a chronic muscle injury. Nathan Redmond is out for the season with a hamstring issue. Aaron Ramsey has been sidelined with a serious knee injury and is unlikely to return to the fold until November.

2️⃣ Brentford Update

Brentford have now won just four of their previous 17 Premier League matches since early November - they’ve lost four of their last five games and not tasted victory since the aforementioned 2-0 victory at Wolves on February 10th. However, this recent run has seen highly competitive performances at Man City and Arsenal, where they lost by just a single goal on each occasion. They’ve also managed to find the net in 11 of their previous 12 EPL games home and away, with only Pep Guardiola’s title chasers keeping a clean sheet against Bees during this sequence. Remember, the Bees also thumped Burnley 3-0 in West London on October 21st.

Both Christian Norgaard (contact injury) and Sergio Reguilon (thigh) are doubts ahead of the trip to Turf Moor and will most likely face late fitness tests. Top scorer Bryan Mbeumo (ankle) and Ethan Pinnock (foot) are sidelined until the end of March and Kevin Schade won’t return from a groin injury until early May. Aaron Hickey faces a similar lay-off with a thigh injury. Ben Mee is out for the season with a significant ankle issue. He joins Rico Henry and Josh Dasilva (both knee) as long-term absentees, with the latter unlikely to return until November.

👕 Burnley vs Brentford - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.