Burnley vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT, 17th Feb 24
PredictionArsenal to Win!
Odds1.33
Arsenal to Win!
The best odds
1.
betway
Odds : 1.33
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.27
Bet €100 and win €127 if Arsenal win.
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3.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.27
Bet €100 and win €127 if Arsenal win.
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Burnley v Arsenal Burnley v Arsenal

Arsenal have hit a rich vein of form since their FA Cup defeat to Liverpool, winning four consecutive games and hitting an incredible 16 goals. This has moved them to within just two points of Premier League leaders Liverpool, while the Gunners also defeated Burnley 3-1 at the Emirates back on November 11th. However, while the Clarets are now winless in six league games after a tough run of fixtures, they performed well at Anfield last time out and always retain an attacking threat. But will Arsenal have too much for Vincet Kompany’s side, and who do the best betting sites think will prevail?

🏆 Burnley vs Arsenal EPL Prediction

Burnley have won just one of their last 19 matches against Arsenal in all competitions, although this victory did come at the Emirates Stadium on December 13th, 2020. Their last victory over the Gunners at Turf Moor came in the League Cup in December 2008, while they haven’t beaten them in there in the league since a 2-1 First Division victory on December 15th, 1973.

This season, Burnley find themselves mired in 19th place and seven points from safety, with Vincent Kompany’s open and progressive playing style not translating into goals or even clear cut chances. This particular issue was best embodied during their previous 3-1 defeat at the Emirates, during which Burnley were pleasing on the eye but only managed to emerge with an xG of 0.33.

The fact that Arsenal recorded an xG of 2.63 also highlights Burnley’s defensive frailties, with the team simply too open in defensive transition. They’ve also made 13 errors leading to an opponent’s shot at goal this season, many of which have arisen from a vulnerability to counter pressing and failure to play out from the back effectively.

Interestingly, Arsenal have also made 13 errors leading to a chance for their opponents during their EPL campaign, and the Gunners always give away a chance or two in the Premier League. However, their ability to control the ball and retain possession high up the pitch (they’ve won an impressive 71 tackles in the attacking third this season) will make it hard for Burnley to get out, and I’m backing Mikel Arteta’s men to win comfortably here.

My Prediction: 🏆 Burnley 1 – 3 Arsenal ⚽

💯 Burnley vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds

Football betting unlocks access to a huge range of markets, especially when wagering on Premier League games. Burnley vs Arsenal is no exception to this rule, with the most popular markets including the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored.

🏅 Burnley vs Arsenal: Match Winner

It may not be a surprise to know that Arsenal are the odds-on favourites to defeat Burnley at Turf Moor. In fact, their average odds of 1.30 imply a 76.92% probability of an away win, whereas Burnley are priced at around 10.00 to beat the Gunners. This implies just a 10% probability of a home victory.

Team
Burnley to Win9.509.009.159.0010.00
Arsenal1.271.331.251.251.27
Draw5.505.505.506.005.50

⚽ Burnley vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 14 of Burnley’s 24 Premier League matches this season (58%), including their previous five. However, both teams have scored in just six of their 12 games at Turf Moor, with the Clarets failing to find the net in five of these. Interestingly, both sides have scored in just five of Arsenal’s 12 away matches (42%), with the Gunners keeping five clean sheets on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.952.001.981.952.00
No1.751.781.711.801.73

🥅 Burnley vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Burnley’s 12 home games in the 2023/24 EPL have produced 40 goals at a rate of 3.33 per game. The Clarets have scored 13 of these goals. Arsenal’s 12 away matches have been a little more staid, yielding 34 goals at a rate of 2.83 per 90 minutes. However, the odds still imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game, while the Gunners were in imperious goalscoring form as they won 6-0 at West Ham last time out.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.551.601.541.601.57
Under 2.5 Goals2.302.302.262.402.25

✔️ Burnley vs Arsenal - Betting Tips

The Gunners are deserved favourites ahead of their trip to Burnley, but there’s little value in backing them to win outright. So, you’ll need to identify the best value markets, or at least create value where possible through combination betting. Here are some expert wagering tips to keep in mind:

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: The bookies are relatively split on where both teams will score at Turf Moor, largely due to Burnley’s poor return of 25 goals in 24 Premier League matches (only Sheffield United have scored less this season). However, they’ve been more potent of late, scoring in their last five matches and creating numerous chances last time out at Anfield. Arsenal have only failed to score three times in the league this season and just twice on the road, so I’d recommend getting on both teams to score at a price of 2.63 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win With Over 3.5 Goals Scored: In terms of combination betting, backing Arsenal to win with over 3.5 goals scored in the game offers tangible value. Not only are Arsenal heavy favourites to win, but the odds imply a 42% probability of over 3.5 goals being scored in the game too. The reverse fixture also saw four goals scored at the Emirates, while Arsenal have struck a rich vein of form in their last four EPL games. You can get on this at the enhanced price of 2.90 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win With a Handicap of -1.75 Goals: If you have one or more free bets on your account, you may want to consider backing Arsenal to win with a handicap of -1.75 goals. You can bet on this at a price of 2.10 with LegendPlay, while it undoubtedly reflects Arsenal’s superiority and Burnley’s shortcomings at both ends of the pitch. While only two of the Gunners’ seven away wins have been by a margin by two goals or more, one of these victories was achieved last time out at the London Stadium.

1️⃣ Burnley Update

While Burnley may have found their shooting boots during their previous five matches, this hasn’t translated into a significant points haul. In fact, the Clarets remain winless in six since a 2-0 win at Fulham on December 23rd, while they’ve taken just two points from the previous 18 available to them and six from the last 30 dating back to December 2nd. Interestingly, Burnley are bottom of the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, during which time they’ve scored just 10 goals and conceded 18. However, they’ve also played against Aston Villa, Man City and Liverpool (twice) during this time, so their form must be considered in the proper context.

Last 5 Games
Liverpool 3
Burnley 1
10.02.24
Premier League
Burnley 2
Fulham 2
03.02.24
Premier League
Man City 3
Burnley 1
31.01.24
Premier League
Burnley 1
Luton Town 1
12.01.24
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Burnley 0
05.01.24
FA Cup

On-loan defender Maxime Esteve performed well at Anfield last time out, and may be in contention to start against the Gunners too. Full back Charlie Taylor may also be available after recovering from a shoulder injury, while Hannes Delcroix is available too after making his own comeback against Liverpool last week. Jordan Beyer (thigh injury) and striker Lyle Foster (muscle) have been ruled out ahead of the visit of the Gunners, while Nathan Redmond (hamstring) and Luca Koleosho (knee) remain long-term absentees.

PlayerReason
Charlie TaylorShoulder Injury
Jordan BeyerThigh Injury
Lyle FosterMuscle Injury
Nathan RedmondHamstring Injury
Luca KoleoshoKnee Injury

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

It seems like a long time ago that Arsenal were struggling for form during the festive period, with a run of one win in five seeing them slip to fourth in the Premier League table. However, they have since reeled off four consecutive victories in the EPL, including a superb and high octane 3-1 win over Liverpool at the Emirates and the aforementioned 6-0 thrashing of West Ham last time out. Players like Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard are also hitting peak form at the ideal time, with the latter having scored three times in his last four matches and six in total this season from just eight starts (and an xG of 4.8).

Last 5 Games
West Ham 0
Arsenal 6
11.02.24
Premier League
Arsenal 3
Liverpool 1
04.02.24
Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1
Arsenal 2
30.01.24
Premier League
Arsenal 5
Crystal Palace 0
20.01.24
Premier League
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 2
07.01.24
FA Cup

While Takehiro Tomiyasu may return to the matchday squad for the visit of Burnley, fellow full back Oleksandr Zinchenko is likely to miss out with a calf injury. Gabriel Jesus (knee injury) and Emile Smith Rowe (ankle) will also face late fitness tests, while Jorginho has incurred a knock that will need to be assessed before kick-off. Jurrien Timber (ACL), Thomas Partey (thigh) and Fabio Viera (groin) remain long-term absentees for the Gunners too, although the latter could return for next week’s UCL round of 16 first leg clash against Porto.

PlayerReason
Oleksandr ZinchenkoCalf Injury
Gabriel JesusKnee Injury
Emile Smith RoweAnkle Injury
JorginhoKnock
Jurrien TimberACL Injury
Thomas ParteyThigh Injury
Fabio VieraGroin Injury

👕 Burnley vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos.Burnley
4-4-2
Arsenal
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Trafford D. Raya Goalkeeper
Right Back L. Assignon B. WhiteRight Back
Centre BackD. O’SheaGabrielCentre Back
Centre BackM. EstèveW. SalibaCentre Back
Left BackH. DelcroixP. KiwiorLeft Back
Right MidfielderA. RamseyM. ØdegaardMidfielder
Central MidfielderS. BergeD. RiceMidfielder
Central MidfielderJ. BrownhillL. TrossardMidfielder
Left MidfielderW. OdobertB. SakaWide Forward
StrikerD. FofanaK. HavertzStriker
StrikerZ. AmdouniG. MartinelliWide Forward

Arsenal to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Burnley vs arsenal feb Burnley vs arsenal feb

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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