Brighton vs Manchester City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Brighton vs Manchester City EPL Prediction

These two sides played out a cagey tactical encounter during the reverse fixture on October 21st, with City prevailing 2-1 thanks to goals by Julian Alvarez and Erling Haaland. Man City had 55% possession during the game and struck 10 attempts on goal (compared to five for Brighton), while both teams accumulated modest xG values of 0.96.

I expect a similar game to unfold at the AMEX Stadium, as while City are renowned for dominating the ball, Brighton have averaged 61.30% possession per 90 this season and taken 7965 touches in their defensive penalty area (an EPL high). This highlights their desire to keep the ball and play out from the back, so both teams will have periods of control and sustained possession on the south coast.

However, City have superior individual quality and are far more effective with their possession. More specifically, they average 4.12 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes (compared to just 2.66 for Brighton) and have created 83 big chances in this season’s Premier League. In contrast, the Seagulls have created just 55 big chances, with the long-term absence of Solly March through injury having taken its toll during the season.

City have also accumulated an xG of 74.02 over the course of the 2023/24 campaign, compared to 52.13 for Brighton. This superior creativity and cutting edge could prove crucial in what’s sure to be a close and competitive game, and I expect Guardiola’s team to secure three points in their quest for a fourth successive EPL title.

💯 Brighton vs Manchester City EPL Match Odds

Before you engage in football betting ahead of the clash between Brighton and Man City, you’ll need to browse the full range of available markets. The most popular markets include the match result, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, so let’s take a look at how they’re currently being priced.

🏅 Brighton vs Manchester City: Match Winner

City are the heavy betting favourites to beat Brighton at the Amex, with odds of 1.40 implying a 71.42% probability of an away win. As for the Seagulls, they can be backed to prevail at around 6.50, suggesting that they have just a 15.38% chance of recording their first win in six league matches against the Citizens.

Team
Brighton to Win	6.50	6.00	6.10	7.00	6.00
Man City to Win	1.40	1.45	1.41	1.40	1.40
Draw	4.50	4.75	4.85	4.50	4.60

⚽ Brighton vs Manchester City: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 12 of Brighton’s 15 home matches in this season’s EPL so far (80%), with the Seagulls keeping just two clean sheets and failing to score on two occasions at the AMEX. Conversely, both sides have found the net in 10 of Man City’s 15 away league matches (67%). Pep Guardiola’s men have kept three clean sheets and drawn two blanks on the road.

BTTS
Yes	1.60	1.67	1.59	1.65	1.62
No	2.20	2.20	2.21	2.15	2.20

🥅 Brighton vs Manchester City: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brighton’s 15 home matches in 2023/24 have produced a total of 47 goals at a rate of 3.13 per game. De Zerbi’s men have scored 28 of these goals at a rate of 1.86 per 90 minutes. As for the Citizens, their 15 away matches have produced 51 goals at a rate of 3.40 per 90, with City scoring 33 times on the road at an average of more than two per game.

Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.48	1.44	1.50	1.50
Under 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.60	2.57	2.63	2.50

1️⃣ Brighton Update

Brighton’s form has been patchy for much of the season after a superb run of five victories in their first six Premier League matches. Since September 24th, however, they’ve only won six out of 26 top-flight games, drawing 11 times and losing on nine occasions. The Seagulls have only won one of their previous seven EPL encounters too, suffering defeats to Fulham, Liverpool and Arsenal during this sequence. What’s more, the team have scored just three times during this poor run of form, with the absence of Solly March, Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson and Julio Enciso clearly taking its toll in the attacking third.

Mitoma is out for the season after incurring a lower back injury, while striker Ferguson continues to struggle with an ankle knock and won’t feature against City. Enciso has a knock and is being assessed, but the City match will come a little too soon for him. Full backs Pervis Estupinan and Tariq Lamptey will miss out against the Citizens too, as will Billy Gilmour, James Milner and Adam Webster. Both Jack Hinshelwood and the aforementioned Solly March join Mitoma in being ruled out for the season.

2️⃣ Man City Update

I’ve already touched on how Man City have now gone 17 matches unbeaten in the Premier League, but they haven’t lost in a staggering 29 games in all competitions since Aston Villa defeated them 1-0 back on December 6th. This run has seen them win the FIFA Club World Cup and reach the final of the FA Cup (in addition to seizing control of the EPL title race), although two thrilling draws against Real Madrid weren’t enough to stop them exiting the Champions League quarterfinals on penalties. In the Premier League alone, City have taken 24 points from the previous 30 available to them, with only title rivals Arsenal (25) collecting more during this period.

City are virtually at full strength ahead of their trip to the south coast, with Kyle Walker and Nathan Ake now both fully fit. However, top scorer Erling Haaland remains a significant doubt with a muscle injury, with the match against Brighton expected to come a little too soon for the Norwegian. John Stones is also a doubt after being withdrawn at half-time against Chelsea, and he’ll be assessed ahead of kick-off.

👕 Brighton vs Man City - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.