Brighton vs Everton Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Brighton vs Everton EPL Prediction

The corresponding fixture last season saw Everton record a stunning 5-1 win, as their direct brand of counter-attacking football caused endless issues for Brighton’s high defensive line. Interestingly, the Toffees have only lost two of their last eight encounters with Brighton, while they haven’t been defeated at the AMEX Stadium since October 2019.

It’s not hard to envisage how this match will play out, with Brighton averaging 61.9% possession per 90 during this season’s Premier League. Conversely, Everton’s average possession share is just 39.4%, so they’ll adopt a deep defensive line and look to crowd Brighton out centrally before hitting the Seagulls on the counterattack.

This served them well in their previous trip to the south coast, but this current Everton side are winless in eight games and have scored just five goals during this run. Only Burnley (25) and Sheffield United (19) have scored less than Everton’s tally of 27 goals this season, although it should be noted that the Toffees have underperformed their xG by an astonishing -10.7 goals.

The Seagulls have outperformed their own xG of 42.3 by +2.7 goals this season, while they put five goals past a hapless Blades side in their last EPL outing. Given this and the fact that Everton may struggle to get hold of the ball at the AMEX this weekend, I’m tipping Brighton to record a comfortable win and potentially keep their first clean sheet since January 22nd.

💯 Brighton vs Everton EPL Match Odds

The reverse fixture at Goodison Park in November also produced a classic cat-and-mouse encounter, which ultimately ended in a 1-1 draw. The Seagulls had an astonishing 80% possession that day, but struggled to turn their dominance of the ball into clear-cut chances. But how has this influenced the most popular betting markets, and what are the latest Brighton vs Everton odds?

🏅 Brighton vs Everton: Match Winner

Despite the most recent results between these two sides, Brighton are the 1.80 favourites to defeat Everton this weekend. This implies a 55.55% probability of a home win. As for Everton, they can be backed at around 4.00 to beat the Seagulls, which suggests that they have just a 25% chance of emerging victorious on the south coast.

Team
Brighton to Win	1.75	1.83	1.80	1.80	1.80
Everton to Win	4.00	4.00	3.85	4.00	4.00
Draw	3.80	3.75	3.75	3.90	3.80

⚽ Brighton vs Everton: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in all but one of Brighton’s 12 home league games this season, with Wolves holding the Seagulls to a dour goalless draw at the AMEX on January 22nd. Conversely, just four of Everton’s 12 away matches have seen both sides find the net (33%), with the Toffees keeping three clean sheets and failing to score on five occasions (including their last three games on the road).

Yes/No
Yes	1.60	1.65	1.56	1.57	1.57
No	2.20	2.20	2.27	2.30	2.25

🥅 Brighton vs Everton: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brighton’s 12 league matches at the AMEX have also yielded an impressive 41 goals at a rate of 3.41 per game, with the Seagulls scoring 26 times in front of their home fans. As for Everton, their 12 away matches have produced 31 goals at a rate of 2.58 per 90, so the odds unsurprisingly imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.62	1.65	1.62	1.67	1.67
Under 2.5 Goals	2.15	2.20	2.14	2.20	2.10

1️⃣ Brighton Update

It’s interesting to note that despite sitting seventh in the Premier League table, Brighton have won just five of their 19 top-flight matches since September 24th. This sequence has also included eight draws and six defeats, although they have won two of their last three encounters while plundering 10 goals (and conceding just three). However, the Seagulls have continued to dominate the ball and create chances despite their enduring lack of consistency during this run, while only Man City and Liverpool have attempted more shots on target per 90 than Roberto De Zerbi’s men this season (5.80). I expect them to be similarly threatening against Everton.

Brighton will be without James Milner (thigh injury) and Julio Ensico (knee) against Everton, with both players having been ruled out until early March. As I’ve already touched on, João Pedro is sidelined for another four weeks with his thigh complaint, while young Jack Hinshelwood (ankle) won’t return to first-team contention until early May. Solomon March may also miss the remainder of the season as he recovers from a serious knee injury.

2️⃣ Everton Update

After Everton were controversially docked 10 points on November 17th, the club embarked on a run of four wins in five Premier League matches. They kept clean sheets in all four victories too, as Nottingham Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea and Burnley were all put to the sword. However, the 2-0 victory at Turf Moor was Everton’s last in the EPL, as they’ve since failed to win in eight matches and slumped back to 17th place in the table. They’re only out of the relegation zone on goal difference, while the fact that they’ve scored just five goals (and only two from open play) in their eight game winless run will be of particular concern for manager Sean Dyche.

Everton welcomed back top scorer Abdoulaye Doucouré against Crystal Palace earlier this week, while the Toffees could be further boosted by the return of both Seamus Coleman (virus) and Andre Gomes (calf injury) ahead of the trip to the south coast. Both players will face late fitness tests, but Arnaut Danjuma (ankle) and Dele Alli (groin) have been ruled out until March at least.

👕 Brighton vs Everton - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.