Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable14:00 GMT, 5th May 24
PredictionBack Aston Villa to Win!
Odds2.40
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
Back Aston Villa to Win!
The best odds
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Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 2.40
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 2.40
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Betiton
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While Aston Villa have seen their form dip slightly in recent weeks, they remain on course for a top four finish in the Premier League and UCL football in 2024/25. However, they can still be overhauled by Spurs below them, while Borussia Dortmund’s first leg win over PSG in the Champions League semi-final means that fifth place won’t be enough to qualify for Europe’s premier cup competition. The good news for the Villains is that their opponents are in free-fall after a difficult season, with Brighton having gone winless in six and slumped to 12th in the table. But can the Seagulls make home advantage tell here, or will Villa secure a crucial victory on the road?

🏆 Brighton vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture on September 30th brought Brighton’s promising start to the season to an end, as they were thumped 6-1 at Villa Park. The Seagulls were defensively wide open in the Midlands and couldn’t cope with the pace and movement of hattrick hero Ollie Watkins, while Villa made the most of a collective xG of just 1.91.

This is typical of a Villa side that has outperformed its xG of 64.04 by a whopping +8.96 goals this season, with only Arsenal proving more efficient in front of goal. Villa’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.13 also sees them rank second in the EPL according to this metric, so Brighton can ill afford Unai Emery’s men too many chances on the south coast.

As for Brighton, their defensive struggles in the Midlands also offered an insight into the challenges they’ve faced in the 2023/24 campaign. More specifically, they’ve only won 46.37% of their tackles this season, while making 21 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal (only Chelsea have made more). Such errors are particularly costly given Brighton’s high defensive line, which is the seventh highest on average in the EPL.

Brighton look to have lost focus in the last few weeks too, with the side safe from relegation and unable to qualify for Europe again. Villa are also well placed to capitalise on the Seagulls’ obvious defensive vulnerabilities, notwithstanding the physical challenges of their midweek game against Olympiakos in the Conference League last four. So, I’m tipping Villa to edge a close and open match at the AMEX Stadium.

My Prediction: 🏆 Brighton 1 – 2 Aston Villa ⚽

💯 Brighton vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

As usual, you’ll be able to access a comprehensive range of betting markets ahead of the EPL clash between Brighton and Aston Villa, including the match winner. For example, you can wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes at Brighton. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Brighton vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Ireland’s best best betting sites are slightly split on which team will win here, although Villa are the narrow favourites with an average price of 2.40. This implies a 41.66% probability of an away win. As for Brighton, they can be backed at around 2.70 to avenge their defeat in the reverse fixture, suggesting that they have a 37.03% chance of winning.

Team
Brighton to Win2.752.702.692.702.70
Aston Villa to Win2.302.402.402.402.40
Draw3.603.603.603.803.75

⚽ Brighton vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 12 of Brighton’s 16 home league matches this season (75%), with the Seagulls keeping two clean sheets and failing to score on three occasions. However, they’ve drawn two of these blanks in their previous three matches. The 17 away games contested by Aston Villa have seen both sides find the net on 11 occasions (65%). The Villains have kept four clean sheets on their travels and failed to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.361.431.401.401.40
No2.802.802.812.752.75

🥅 Brighton vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brighton’s 16 home matches have also yielded 51 goals at a rate of 3.18 per game. They’ve scored 28 times at the AMEX at a rate of 1.75 per 90 minutes. The 17 away matches contested by Villa have produced 55 goals at the slightly higher rate 3.23 per 90, while Emery’s side have conceded 27 of these at an average of 1.58 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.441.481.461.441.45
Under 2.5 Goals2.502.602.542.502.50

✔️ Brighton vs Aston Villa - Betting Tips

Despite Brighton’s poor form, the bookies are somewhat split when it comes to the match winner market. The Seagulls have only lost three times at the AMEX all season too, while there are also a range of other betting markets that can help you to get the most out of your real money bankroll and available free bets.

  • Tip 1: Back Aston Villa to Win Outright: Brighton’s resilient home form and the Seagulls quality in possession (they average 60.8% possession per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season) means that they can’t be discounted here. This also means that there’s significant value in backing Villa to win outright at the AMEX, especially as Emery’s men have only lost one of their previous seven league matches since December 26th. You can get on Villa to win here at the competitive price of 2.40 with PalmSlots Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Ollie Watkins as an Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins plundered a hattrick in the reverse fixture back in September, while he has now scored six goals and contributed a single assist in just six appearances against the Seagulls. The England international is also the joint-third top goalscorer in this season’s EPL, striking 19 goals from 47 shots on target and an xG of just 16.0. So, there’s logic in backing Watkins as an anytime goalscorer here, especially at a price of 2.50 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score: Despite their defensive issues, Brighton has scored in 13 of their 16 home matches this season (81%), and while they’ve drawn blanks in their previous two games at the AMEX, these were against Arsenal and Manchester City. As for Villa, they’ve scored in 10 of their last 11 matches on the road in the EPL, and also occasionally struggle with a high defensive line. So, get on Villa to win and both teams to score here at the enhanced price of 3.75 with Royalist Play Sports.

1️⃣ Brighton Update

Brighton’s 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Aston Villa sparked a significant downturn in their fortunes this season, with the Seagulls having won just six of their subsequent 27 matches home and away. Over the course of the last 10 matches in the Premier League, Roberto De Zerbi’s men sit 17th in the EPL form table having taken just nine points from the 30 available to them during this period. Injuries in the attacking third have also caused the goals to dry up for Brighton at the AMEX, as they’ve failed to score in their last two home games and struck just two goals in their previous four.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 3
Brighton 0
28.04.24
Premier League
Brighton 0
Man City 4
25.04.24
Premier League
Burnley 1
Brighton 1
13.04.24
Premier League
Brighton 0
Arsenal 3
06.04.24
Premier League
Brentford 0
Brighton 0
03.04.24
Premier League

Brighton remain without several key players against Villa, including centre back Jean Paul van Hecke (thigh injury), Adam Lallana (knock) and James Milner (hamstring). Tariq Lamptey (muscle) and Kaoru Mitoma (lower back) are some weeks away from a return, while neither Pervis Estupinan (calf) or Jack Hinshelwood (foot) will play again this season. The same is true for striker Evan Ferguson (ankle) and Solomon March, who has missed much of the campaign with a serious knee injury.

PlayerReason
Kaoru Mitoma Lower Back Injury
Evan Ferguson Ankle Injury
Jean Paul van Hecke Thigh Injury
Pervis Estupinan Ankle Injury
Tariq Lamptey Muscle Injury
James Milner Thigh Injury
Adam Lallana Knock
Jack Hinshelwood Foot Injury
Solly March Knee Injury

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa 4-2 home defeat to Olympiakos in the semi-final of the Europa Conference League will have stunned the locals, but this result was indicative of the Midlands’ clubs’ inconsistent home form through 2024. However, they’ve been better on the road in recent times, losing just one of their previous matches on the road this year and since a thrilling 3-2 defeat to Man United on Boxing Day. The Villains are fifth in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, claiming 18 points from the 30 available to them during this time and maintaining a relatively firm grip on fourth place.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 2
Olympiakos 4
02.05.24
UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 2
Chelsea 2
27.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 3
Bournemouth 1
21.04.24
Premier League
Lille 2
Aston Villa 1
18.04.24
UEFA Europa League
Arsenal 0
Aston Villa 2
14.04.24
Premier League

Alex Moreno remains a doubt with a calf injury, but he’ll be assessed ahead of the trip to Brighton. Youri Tielemans is also a doubt with a groin complaint, and this weekend’s game may come a little too soon for him. First choice keeper Emi Martinez will miss out with a thigh injury too. Otherwise, Villa are without four long-term absentees, including Jacob Ramsey (foot), Boubacar Kamara (knee) and Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries). None of these players will feature again in the 2023/24 campaign.

PlayerReason
Alex Moreno Calf Injury
Youri Tielemans Groin Injury
Emi Martinez Thigh Injury
Jacob Ramsey Foot Injury
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury

👕 Brighton vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

Pos. Brighton
4-2-3-1
Aston Villa
4-4-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Steele R. Olsen Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Veltman E. Konza Right Back
Centre Back L. Dunk D. Carlos Centre Back
Centre Back A. Webster P. Torres Centre Back
Left Back V. Barco L. Digne Left Back
Midfielder B. Gilmour L. Bailey Right Midfielder
Midfielder P. Gross D. Luiz Central Midfielder
Midfielder J. Enciso J. McGinn Central Midfielder
Wide Midfielder S. Adingra M. Rogers Left Midfielder
Striker D. Welbeck M. Diaby Striker
Striker J. Pedro O. Watkins Wide Forward

Back Aston Villa to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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