Brighton vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Brighton vs Aston Villa EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture on September 30th brought Brighton’s promising start to the season to an end, as they were thumped 6-1 at Villa Park. The Seagulls were defensively wide open in the Midlands and couldn’t cope with the pace and movement of hattrick hero Ollie Watkins, while Villa made the most of a collective xG of just 1.91.

This is typical of a Villa side that has outperformed its xG of 64.04 by a whopping +8.96 goals this season, with only Arsenal proving more efficient in front of goal. Villa’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.13 also sees them rank second in the EPL according to this metric, so Brighton can ill afford Unai Emery’s men too many chances on the south coast.

As for Brighton, their defensive struggles in the Midlands also offered an insight into the challenges they’ve faced in the 2023/24 campaign. More specifically, they’ve only won 46.37% of their tackles this season, while making 21 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal (only Chelsea have made more). Such errors are particularly costly given Brighton’s high defensive line, which is the seventh highest on average in the EPL.

Brighton look to have lost focus in the last few weeks too, with the side safe from relegation and unable to qualify for Europe again. Villa are also well placed to capitalise on the Seagulls’ obvious defensive vulnerabilities, notwithstanding the physical challenges of their midweek game against Olympiakos in the Conference League last four. So, I’m tipping Villa to edge a close and open match at the AMEX Stadium.

💯 Brighton vs Aston Villa EPL Match Odds

As usual, you’ll be able to access a comprehensive range of betting markets ahead of the EPL clash between Brighton and Aston Villa, including the match winner. For example, you can wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes at Brighton. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Brighton vs Aston Villa: Match Winner

Ireland’s best best betting sites are slightly split on which team will win here, although Villa are the narrow favourites with an average price of 2.40. This implies a 41.66% probability of an away win. As for Brighton, they can be backed at around 2.70 to avenge their defeat in the reverse fixture, suggesting that they have a 37.03% chance of winning.

Team
Brighton to Win	2.75	2.70	2.69	2.70	2.70
Aston Villa to Win	2.30	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.40
Draw	3.60	3.60	3.60	3.80	3.75

⚽ Brighton vs Aston Villa: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 12 of Brighton’s 16 home league matches this season (75%), with the Seagulls keeping two clean sheets and failing to score on three occasions. However, they’ve drawn two of these blanks in their previous three matches. The 17 away games contested by Aston Villa have seen both sides find the net on 11 occasions (65%). The Villains have kept four clean sheets on their travels and failed to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes	1.36	1.43	1.40	1.40	1.40
No	2.80	2.80	2.81	2.75	2.75

🥅 Brighton vs Aston Villa: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brighton’s 16 home matches have also yielded 51 goals at a rate of 3.18 per game. They’ve scored 28 times at the AMEX at a rate of 1.75 per 90 minutes. The 17 away matches contested by Villa have produced 55 goals at the slightly higher rate 3.23 per 90, while Emery’s side have conceded 27 of these at an average of 1.58 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.48	1.46	1.44	1.45
Under 2.5 Goals	2.50	2.60	2.54	2.50	2.50

1️⃣ Brighton Update

Brighton’s 6-1 thrashing at the hands of Aston Villa sparked a significant downturn in their fortunes this season, with the Seagulls having won just six of their subsequent 27 matches home and away. Over the course of the last 10 matches in the Premier League, Roberto De Zerbi’s men sit 17th in the EPL form table having taken just nine points from the 30 available to them during this period. Injuries in the attacking third have also caused the goals to dry up for Brighton at the AMEX, as they’ve failed to score in their last two home games and struck just two goals in their previous four.

Brighton remain without several key players against Villa, including centre back Jean Paul van Hecke (thigh injury), Adam Lallana (knock) and James Milner (hamstring). Tariq Lamptey (muscle) and Kaoru Mitoma (lower back) are some weeks away from a return, while neither Pervis Estupinan (calf) or Jack Hinshelwood (foot) will play again this season. The same is true for striker Evan Ferguson (ankle) and Solomon March, who has missed much of the campaign with a serious knee injury.

2️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa 4-2 home defeat to Olympiakos in the semi-final of the Europa Conference League will have stunned the locals, but this result was indicative of the Midlands’ clubs’ inconsistent home form through 2024. However, they’ve been better on the road in recent times, losing just one of their previous matches on the road this year and since a thrilling 3-2 defeat to Man United on Boxing Day. The Villains are fifth in the EPL form table over the course of the last 10 matches, claiming 18 points from the 30 available to them during this time and maintaining a relatively firm grip on fourth place.

Alex Moreno remains a doubt with a calf injury, but he’ll be assessed ahead of the trip to Brighton. Youri Tielemans is also a doubt with a groin complaint, and this weekend’s game may come a little too soon for him. First choice keeper Emi Martinez will miss out with a thigh injury too. Otherwise, Villa are without four long-term absentees, including Jacob Ramsey (foot), Boubacar Kamara (knee) and Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries). None of these players will feature again in the 2023/24 campaign.

👕 Brighton vs Aston Villa - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.