Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

brighton-v-arsenal-logo brighton-v-arsenal-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable17:30 GMT, 6th April 24
PredictionArsenal to Win!
Odds1.62
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
The best odds
1.
Bet €100 and win €162 if Arsenal win.
Bonus:
2.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.62
Bet €100 and win €162 if Arsenal win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.60
Bet €100 and win €160 if Arsenal win.
Bonus:
€10
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Arsenal may find themselves third in the Premier League by the time they kick off on the south coast against Brighton, depending on the result of the lunchtime kick-off between Crystal Palace and Manchester City. Regardless, this will be a tough test for the Gunners, despite Brighton’s inconsistent form, as Roberto De Zerbi’s men are technically excellent and offer a continuous goal threat in the final third. But can the Seagulls derail Arsenal’s title charge for the second consecutive year, and how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing the potential match outcomes?

🏆 Brighton vs Arsenal EPL Prediction

Arsenal dominated the reverse fixture on December 17th, winning 2-0 accumulating an xG of 2.77 and striking 26 attempts at goal. Although Brighton recorded 51% possession, they struggled to create genuine chances in North London, managing just a single shot on target and an xG of 0.66.

Of course, Brighton tend to dominate the ball whenever they play, with the Seagulls averaging 61.8% possession per 90 minutes in the Premier League (only Man City have bettered this statistic in 2023/24).

However, they only average 2.83 goal-creating actions per 90, while the team has managed to squander 48 big chances so far this season.

At the other end of the spectrum, Arsenal average 3.97 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes this season. The Gunners have also outperformed their collective xG by a whopping +10.0 goals, highlighting their incredible efficiency in front of goal and ability to convert a high proportion of the chances they create.

Ultimately, Brighton have lacked a defined cutting edge in attack for much of the season, while the club’s Europa League campaign has taken its toll on a small squad. They’ve only taken 12 points from the previous 30 available to them in the Premier League too, so I’m tipping Arsenal to win on the South Coast and continue their title charge.

My Prediction: 🏆 Brighton 1 – 3 Arsenal ⚽

💯 Brighton vs Arsenal EPL Match Odds

You can access plenty of enticing football betting markets when wagering on the clash between Brighton and Arsenal, although some of these are more popular than others. These include the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Brighton vs Arsenal: Match Winner

Brighton are priced at around 5.00 to beat Arsenal at the AMEX, implying just a 20% probability of a home win. Unsurprisingly, the Gunners are the clear favourites to defeat the Seagulls, with their average odds of 1.60 suggesting that they have a 62.50% chance of achieving this goal. Interestingly, the draw is the second most statistically likely outcome at odds of around 4.00.

Team
Brighton to Win5.005.004.905.005.00
Arsenal to Win1.601.621.601.501.62
Draw4.004.004.254.004.00

⚽ Brighton vs Arsenal: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in a whopping 86% of Brighton’s home games in 2023/24, with De Zerbi’s men keeping just two clean sheets and drawing a single blank against Wolves on January 22nd. Conversely, both sides have registered in just 33% of Arsenal’s away games, with Mikel Arteta’s side having kept an impressive eight clean sheets and failed to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.621.671.611.701.67
No2.152.202.162.102.20

🥅 Brighton vs Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brighton have contested 14 home matches in the 2023/24 Premier League so far, with these yielding a total of 44 goals at a rate of 3.14 per game. The Seagulls have scored 28 of these goals at a rate of exactly 2.00 per 90 minutes. As for the Gunners, their 15 away matches have produced 45 goals at the slightly lower rate of 3.00 per 90. However, they’ve only conceded 11 times on the road in total.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.621.621.571.601.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.152.202.252.252.10

✔️ Brighton vs Arsenal - Betting Tips

While Arsenal are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Brighton, the Seagulls have only lost one match at home all season in the Premier League. So, here are some tips to help you identify the best value betting markets and make the most of your starting bankroll!

  • Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: As the odds imply a 62.5% probability of Arsenal beating Brighton at the AMEX, there’s little value to be found in backing the Gunners to win outright. However, Brighton have scored in all but one of their 14 home matches in 2023/24 so far, while the last five games between these two teams have produced an impressive 18 goals (the Gulls have scored 10 of these). So, why not back Arsenal to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.10 with Royalistplay.
  • Tip 2: Back Gabriel Martinelli as an Anytime Goalscorer: Roberto De Zerbi is renowned for his tactical prowess, but he often sacrifices players in wide positions to create central overloads and dominate possession. This will create space on the wings for Arsenal to exploit, and the pace and direct running of the fit again Gabriel Martinelli may prove too much for the Seagulls to handle. What’s more, you can back Martinelli as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 3.75 with LegendPlay, which offers even greater value if you have one or more free bets on your account.
  • Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win with a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: While I expect this to be a tight, even and high-quality game, Arsenal’s ruthlessness in front of goal may well come to the fore. Not only have they dramatically outperformed their xG value by +10.0 goals in 2023/24, for example, but they also boast the fourth-highest goals-to-shot ratio in the EPL (0.12). The Gunners have also scored 19 goals in their previous five Premier League away games, so you could back them to win with a nominal handicap of -1.5 goals at the enhanced price of 2.70 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ Brighton Update

Brighton followed up a plucky defeat at Anfield with a drab goalless draw against Brentford in West London, meaning that they’ve now won just six of their last 25 Premier League matches since September 24th. The team also have just one victory in their previous five games, while they sit 12th in the EPL form table having taken 12 points from the last 30 available to them. The only real saving grace for the Seagulls is their home form, as they remain unbeaten in 12 at the AMEX Stadium since a shock 3-1 defeat to West Ham back on August 26th.

Last 5 Games
Brentford 0
Brighton 0
03.04.24
Premier League
Liverpool 2
Brighton 1
31.03.24
Premier League
Brighton 1
AS Roma 0
14.03.24
UEFA Europa League
Brighton 1
Nottm Forest 0
10.03.24
Premier League
AS Roma 4
Brighton 0
07.03.24
UEFA Europa League

Brighton have now welcomed back Joao Pedro (hamstring injury) and Julio Enciso (muscle) from injury, while out-of-form striker Evan Ferguson is being assessed as he recovers from an ankle knock. Veteran midfielder James Milner remains sidelined with a thigh strain, while Billy Gilmour (knee) is out for at least a few more weeks. Other long-term absentees include midfielder Jack Hinshelwood (ankle) and Kaoru Mitoma (lower back), both of whom face a race against time to be fit again this season. Winger Solly March has already been ruled out of the campaign with a knee injury.

PlayerReason
Evan Ferguson Ankle Injury
James Milner Thigh Injury
Jack Hinshelwood Ankle Injury
Kaoru Mitoma Lower Back Injury
Billy Gilmour Knee Injury
Solly March Knee Injury

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

The Gunners romped to a 2-0 win over Luton in midweek, despite resting a handful of key first-team players. They’ve now won nine of their 10 Premier League matches in 2024, earning 28 points from the 30 available to them during this period (no side has accumulated more since the turn of the year). Incredibly, Arsenal have plundered 35 goals and conceded just four in the Premier League during his sequence, with 19 of these goals coming on the road. The Gunners are now unbeaten in five EPL away games since December 31st, when Fulham defeated them 2-1 at Craven Cottage.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 2
Luton Town 0
03.04.24
Premier League
Man City 0
Arsenal 0
31.03.24
Premier League
Arsenal (4) 1
FC Porto (2) 0
12.03.24
UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 2
Brentford 1
09.03.24
Premier League
Sheffield United 0
Arsenal 6
04.03.24
Premier League

Arsenal will virtually be at full strength for the trip to Brighton, although winger Bukayo Saka will continue to be assessed this week as he struggles with a thigh strain. Most pundits are tipping him to be fit (although he may be rested), leaving Jurrien Timber as the Gunners’ only conformed absentee this weekend. He continues to near a return after incurring an ACL injury on the opening day of the season but is targeting a comeback towards the end of May.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber ACL Injury
Bukayo Saka Thigh Injury

👕 Brighton vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos. Brighton
4-2-3-1
Arsenal
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Steele D. Raya Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Veltman B. White Right Back
Centre Back Jan Paul van Hecke W. Saliba Centre Back
Centre Back L. Dunk Gabriel Centre Back
Left Back P. Estupiñán P. Kiwior Left Back
Midfielder P. Groß M. Ødegaard Midfielder
Midfielder C. Quomah Baleba D. Rice Midfielder
Midfielder J. Enciso E. Smith-Rowe Midfielder
Wide Forward S. Adingra L. Trossard Wide Forward
Striker J. Pedro K. Havertz Striker
Wide Forward D. Welbeck G. Martinelli Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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