Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Brentford vs Chelsea EPL Prediction

Brentford and Chelsea have only met on 20 occasions in their respective histories, with six of these fixtures coming since the Bees’ promotion to the top flight in the summer of 2021. Interestingly, Chelsea are now winless in four matches since a 2-0 League Cup victory in December 2021, with Brentford triumphing on three occasions (including a 2-0 success at Stamford Bridge on October 28th).

Since this impressive win at the Bridge, however, Brentford have recorded just four wins in 16 Premier League encounters, with this sequence also featuring 12 defeats. At the heart of the Bees poor form is their lack of ruthlessness in front of goal, with Brentford having underperformed their xG of 41.4 by -5.7 goals in 2023/24.

Interestingly, Chelsea are one of only two teams (along with Everton) to fare worse according to this metric. Brentford and Chelsea have also missed 50 and 49 big chances respectively this season, with the Bees missing talisman Ivan Toney for most of the campaign and the Blues lacking any kind of effective or consistent focal point in attack.

Both teams are also defensively vulnerable, with Chelsea having made 15 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season (the Bees have made 13 such mistakes). So, you should expect an open and difficult-to-call encounter in West London, and one in which home advantage and Brentford’s aggressive counter-pressing could prove crucial.

💯 Brentford vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds

It has yet to be seen how Chelsea will react to their Carabao Cup final defeat, but Pochettino’s deflated and tired side will also have to contend with a 5th round FA Cup tie against Chelsea in midweek. The Bees have no such concerns, and this will have a significant impact on how the match is likely to play out. Here’s my take on the most popular betting markets and how they’re being priced:

🏅 Brentford vs Chelsea: Match Winner

Most football betting activity will be focused on the match winner, with Brentford priced at around 3.00 to defeat their West London neighbours. This implies a 33.33% probability of a home win. As for Chelsea, they can be backed at an average price of 2.10 to prevail, suggesting that they have a 47.61% chance of success.

Team
Brentford to Win	3.00	3.10	3.00	3.05	3.00
Chelsea to Win	2.10	2.15	2.10	2.15	2.05
Draw	3.75	3.60	3.55	3.75	3.75

⚽ Brentford vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 11 of Brentford’s 13 home matches this season, including each of their previous six. The Bees have kept just a single clean sheet at home and failed to score once (during a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal on November 28th). Both sides have found the net in 10 of Chelsea’s 13 away games, with the Blues keeping two clean sheets and failing to score on two separate occasions.

Yes/No
Yes	1.40	1.48	1.44	1.50	1.44
No	2.60	2.60	2.53	2.40	2.63

🥅 Brentford vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Brentford’s 13 away matches have produced a significant tally of 49 goals at a rate of 3.76 per game, with only Sheffield United and Burnley conceding more times at home than the Bees. Chelsea’s 13 away games have yielded 45 goals at a rate of 3.46 per 90, while the Blues have a negative goal difference of -1 on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.60	1.57	1.56	1.57	1.57
Under 2.5 Goals	2.25	2.30	2.26	2.30	2.25

1️⃣ Brentford Update

Brentford’s run of four wins in 16 matches has seen them bank just 12 points from a possible 48, while they’ve only taken six points from their previous 10 games. As a result, they’ve fallen from a position of relative comfort to 16th in the Premier League table, while they’re now just five points clear of the relegation zone and Luton Town in 18th. They’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their previous 16 matches, since the aforementioned win at Stamford Bridge in October. Incredibly, they haven’t kept a clean sheet at the Gtech since a 3-0 victory over Burnley back on October 21st.

The Bees are hopeful that centre-back Ben Mee will be fit for the visit of Chelsea after he suffered an ankle knock during the 4-2 defeat to West Ham. However, Bryan Mbeumo (foot injury) and defender Ethan Pinnock (ankle) have been ruled out until the end of March, while young forward Kevin Schade (groin) is not expected back until late April. Rico Henry and Joshua Dasilva (both knee) are out for the season, with the latter unlikely to return until November.

2️⃣ Chelsea Update

Whether Chelsea are billion pound bottle jobs or not, the side was certainly underwhelming during extra-time in the Carabao Cup final against an injury-ravaged Liverpool team. This defeat followed a more promising three-match unbeaten run in all competitions too, although the Blues have only once won three Premier League games in a row during the 2023/24 campaign. While they have taken 16 points from the previous 30 available to them, they’ve only won one of their last four EPL games and continue to lack a consistent and reliable goal scorer. It also has yet to be seen whether they’ll suffer a hangover following their defeat to Liverpool at Wembley.

Chelsea will be hoping that Christopher Nkunku recovers from a knock after an injury-plagued season, while Thiago Silva (groin) and Marc Cucurella (ankle) could also be available for the short trip across West London. However, the match will come too soon for Romeo Lavia (thigh), Carney Chukwuemeka (ankle) and Benoit Badiashile (hip), while skipper Reece James (thigh) has been ruled out until the end of March. Wesley Fofana is out for the season after incurring an ACL injury, while Lesley Ugochukwu faces further assessment after suffering a hamstring strain.

👕 Brentford vs Chelsea - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.