Brentford vs Brighton Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 19:30 GMT, 3rd April 24 |
| Prediction | Back the Draw! |
| Odds | 3.70 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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A 2-1 loss at Liverpool ensured another frustrating weekend for Brighton in the Premier League, with Roberto De Zerbi’s men once again earning rave reviews for their performance but heading back to the south coast empty-handed when it comes to points. As for Brentford, they dominated a lacklustre Man United side in West London on Saturday, only to leave with a share of the spoils after a profligate performance in front of goal. But which team do I think will win this EPL encounter, and how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing all potential match outcomes?
🏆 Brentford vs Brighton EPL Prediction
These two teams contested the reverse fixture at the AMEX Stadium on December 6th, with the Seagulls winning 2-1 after a highly competitive game. Brighton and Brentford produced respective xG values of 1.67 and 1.27 during the 90 minutes, with young midfielder Jack Hinshelwood scoring the winner in the second half.
The Bees have now won just one of their previous six matches against Brighton since September 2016, while they’ve also embarked on a seven-game winless run in the EPL since defeating Wolves at Molineux on February 10th. So, although they’ll be buoyed by the quality and intensity of their performance against Man United last time out, they remain in desperate need of three points.
Of course, neither team is in particularly good form this season, with Brentford and Brighton recording just four victories in their last 20 matches combined. The Bees have also managed to miss 59 big chances in this season’s Premier League (no side has been more wasteful in front of goal) and continue to underperform their collective xG by -7.3 goals in 2023/24.
The Seagulls are marginally more efficient in front of goal, while their ability to dominate the ball (they average 61.7% possession per 90 minutes in the EPL) will afford them a measure of control that Man United lacked in West London. However, Brentford will be combative and dangerous in front of goal once again, so the smart money may well be on another score draw here.
My Prediction: 🏆 Brentford 1 - 1 Brighton ⚽
💯 Brentford vs Brighton EPL Match Odds
Of course, a draw wouldn’t necessarily suit either side here, but wagering on the match result is just one of the available Brentford vs Brighton football betting markets. You can also bet on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Here’s my analysis of the latest odds.
🏅 Brentford vs Brighton: Match Winner
The Bees are the narrow pre-game favourites to defeat Brighton this week, with an average price of 2.35 implying a 42.55% probability of a home win. Conversely, the Seagulls can be backed at around 2.75 to prevail, suggesting they have a 36.36% chance of securing just their second away win of 2024. The draw can be backed at 3.70 and has a 27.02% chance of occurring.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford to Win | 2.25 | 2.55 | 2.35 | 2.35 | 2.35 |
| Brighton to Win | 2.75 | 2.65 | 2.69 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 3.60 |
⚽ Brentford vs Brighton: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 70% of Brentford’s EPL matches this season, but this percentage increases to an impressive 87% at the Gtech Community Stadium. The Bees have kept one clean sheet at home and drawn just a single blank against Arsenal on November 25th. Both sides have found the net in 67% of Brighton’s away matches in 2023/24, with De Zerbi’s men keeping two clean sheets and failing to score on three separate occasions.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.45 | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| No | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.63 | 2.60 | 2.50 |
🥅 Brentford vs Brighton: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Brentford’s 15 home matches this season have produced a whopping 55 goals at a rate of 3.66 per game, with the Bees scoring 25 of these goals at 1.66 per 90 minutes. Brighton’s 15 away matches have yielded a similar total of 53 goals at a rate of 3.53 per game, although the Seagulls have shipped 30 goals on the road at a rate of exactly 2.00 per 90.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.57 | 1.60 | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.40 | 2.25 | 2.25 |
✔️ Brentford vs Brighton - Betting Tips
This is an incredibly difficult match to call, whether you consider both teams’ recent form or their enduring struggles in front of goal. Both teams are porous defensively, too, so it may be hard to identify the best value markets and wager types. Fortunately, I’ve prepared some betting tips to help you make the most of your bankroll.
- Tip 1: Back the Draw: It’s interesting to note that while Brentford have won 17 points from the 45 available to them at home this season, Brighton have earned just two less on their travels. The Seagulls have also won as many games on the road (four) as the Bees have at the Gtech Stadium, while both sides have conceded the same number of goals (30). This reflects the evenly matched and defensively vulnerable nature of the two sides, so consider backing the draw at the competitive price of 3.70 with Betiton Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The odds currently imply a 63.69% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the game, but this doesn’t necessarily reflect both sides’ struggles in front of goal. While no team has been more wasteful in front of goal than Brentford this season, Brighton have also squandered 47 big chances since the beginning of the campaign, so this may be a lower-scoring match than many are predicting. You can bet on under 2.5 goals being scored in the game at a price of 2.40 with Betiton Sports.
Tip 3: Back Ivan Toney as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you have one or more free bets spare on your account, you may want to consider backing Ivan Toney as an anytime goalscorer at the Gtech Stadium. The England striker has struck three goals in just four EPL appearances against Brighton, while he was unlucky not to score against Man United last time out (he also assisted Kristoffer Ajer’s late equaliser). You can back Toney as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 2.30 with LegendPlay.
1️⃣ Brentford Update
Although the Bees were unfortunate to see their winless run extend to seven matches against Man United, they remain just five points clear of the relegation zone in 15th place. They’ve now won just three of their previous 19 Premier League matches since November 4th, too, while their tally of a single clean sheet in their previous 20 top-flight games will be hugely concerning for manager Thomas Frank. Still, Brentford will take tremendous solace from their performance against Man United, as they generated an impressive xG of 3.11 from 31 attempts on goal while restricting their opponents to just scraps in the attacking third.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Brentford 1 Man United 1 | 30.03.24 Premier League |
| Burnley 2 Brentford 1 | 16.03.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 2 Brentford 1 | 09.03.24 Premier League |
| Brentford 2 Chelsea 2 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
| West Ham 4 Brentford 2 | 26.02.24 Premier League |
Sergio Reguilon will return from suspension against Brighton, slightly easing Brentford’s defensive injury crisis. However, the match may come too soon for centre-back Ethan Pinnock (foot injury), while Christian Norgaard (lower back) and Kevin Schade (groin) remain sidelined for the time being. Full-back Aaron Hickey is out until May with a thigh injury. Rico Henry (knee) and Ben Mee (ankle) have been ruled out for the remainder of the season, and Josh Dasilva’s knee complaint will keep him out of contention until November 2024.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Aaron Hickey | Hamstring Injury |
| Ben Mee | Ankle Injury |
| Christian Norgaard | Lower Back Injury |
| Ethan Pinnock | Foot Injury |
| Kevin Schade | Groin Injury |
| Rico Henry | Knee Injury |
| Joshua Dasilva | Knee Injury |
2️⃣ Brighton Update
Despite the regular plaudits earned by Roberto De Zerbi and his plucky charges this season, Brighton have now won just six of their previous 23 Premier League matches since a 3-1 home win over Bournemouth on September 24th. They’ve only won once on the road in 2024 too, while claiming just five points from the last 27 available to them on their travels since November 25th. Overall, they’ve taken 12 points from the previous 30 available to them home and away, placing them 12th in the EPL form table during this period.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Liverpool 2 Brighton 1 | 31.03.24 Premier League |
| Brighton 1 AS Roma 0 | 14.03.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Brighton 1 Nottm Forest 0 | 10.03.24 Premier League |
| AS Roma 4 Brighton 0 | 07.03.24 UEFA Europa League |
| Fulham 3 Brighton 0 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
Both Joao Pedro (hamstring injury) and Julio Enciso (muscle) are being assessed ahead of the visit to West London and may be fit enough to play at least some part against Brentford. However, veteran utility man James Milner is sidelined with a thigh strain. Longer-term absentees include young midfielder Jack Hinshelwood (ankle), Kaoru Mitoma (lower back) and Billy Gilmour (knee), while winger Solly March remains out for the season with a serious knee complaint.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Joao Pedro | Hamstring Injury |
| Julio Enciso | Muscle Injury |
| James Milner | Thigh Injury |
| Jack Hinshelwood | Ankle Injury |
| Kaoru Mitoma | Lower Back Injury |
| Billy Gilmour | Knee Injury |
| Solly March | Knee Injury |
👕 Brentford vs Brighton - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Brentford 3-4-3 | Brighton 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. Flekken | J. Steele | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | M. Jørgensen | J. Veltman | Right Back |
| Centre Back | K. Ajer | J.P. van Hecke | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | N. Collins | L. Dunk | Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | M. Roerslev | P. Estupiñán | Left Back |
| Central Midfielder | M. Jensen | P. Groß | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | V. Janelt | C. Quomah Baleba | Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | S. Reguilon | J. Enciso | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | B. Mbeumo | S. Adingra | Wide Forward |
| Striker | I. Toney | D. Welbeck | Striker |
| Wide Forward | Y. Wissa | F. Buonanotte | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
