Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

bournemouth-v-man-utd-logo bournemouth-v-man-utd-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable17:30 GMT, 13th April 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds4.00
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
The best odds
1.
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 4.00
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2.
Bet €100 and win €380 if the match ends in a draw.
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3.
Betiton
Odds : 3.80
Bet €100 and win €380 if the match ends in a draw.
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€10
bournemouth-v-man-utd-logo bournemouth-v-man-utd-logo

Bournemouth have enjoyed a solid Premier League campaign under new manager Andoni Iraola, already achieving safety and 41 points from 31 matches so far. They’ve won 23 of these points at the Vitality Stadium and are unbeaten in their previous four games at home, so Erik ten Hag’s Manchester United will have their work cut out on the south coast this weekend. United have already lost seven times on the road this season too, while they’re winless in three on the road since February 18th. But will the Cherries add to their woes here, and how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing a Man United win?

🏆 Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd EPL Prediction

Bournemouth stunned the Red Devils at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture on December 9th, claiming their first-ever win at the Theatre of Dreams by a thumping 3-0 scoreline. They also accumulated an xG of 1.97 during the 90 minutes and even had a goal disallowed. For their part, United produced an xG of just 1.11 and struggled to create any clear chances at all.

However, there’s actually little between these two teams from a performance perspective in 2023/24, which isn’t surprising given that just eight points separate them in the EPL table. The Cherries have certainly adopted a more aggressive approach both with and without the ball under the stewardship of Iraola, averaging 45.2% possession per 90 and completing 1,660 ball recoveries (only Liverpool have recorded more this season).

Bournemouth have also attempted 87 tackles in the attacking third, compared to 86 for the Red Devils. So, both sides look to recover the ball as high as possible on the pitch, although the Cherries boast better defensive organisation overall and have superior structure in their midfield. To this end, United have shipped 154 shots on goal in their last six EPL matches alone, at an astonishing rate of 25.66 per 90 minutes.

I expect this trend to continue here, with Bournemouth likely to create plenty of chances against United in front of their own fans. However, the Red Devils have also scored in 13 consecutive Premier League games and seven on the road since December 23rd, so I’m tipping this match to end in an entertaining score draw.

My Prediction: 🏆 Bournemouth 1 - 1 Man United ⚽

💯 Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd EPL Match Odds

There are plenty of enticing Bournemouth vs Man United football betting markets available at the market-leading sportsbooks. These include the match winner (or result), both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, but what odds are currently associated with these markets?

🏅 Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd: Match Winner

Although the bookies are relatively split on which team will win on the south coast this weekend, Bournemouth are the narrow favourites to prevail at odds of around 2.44. These odds imply a 40.98% probability of a home victory. As for Man United, they can be backed at an average price of 2.54, suggesting that they have a 39.37% chance of winning. You can back the draw at a price of 3.80, so this remains the least likely outcome statistically speaking, with an implied probability of 26.31%.

Team
Bournemouth to Win2.382.502.442.502.45
Man United to Win2.632.502.542.552.60
Draw3.803.803.804.003.75

⚽ Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 61% of Bournemouth’s 31 EPL matches this season, although this percentage dips to 50% at the Vitality Stadium. The Cherries have kept four clean sheets and drawn five blanks at home (but just one in their previous six matches). Both sides have found the net in 56% of Man United’s away matches this season, with the Red Devils keeping four clean sheets and failing to score on another four occasions.

Yes/No
Yes1.331.381.361.331.36
No3.003.002.993.003.00

🥅 Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

There’s a great deal of synergy between Bournemouth’s home record and United’s performance on the road, especially regarding the number of goals scored. For example, Bournemouth’s 16 EPL home matches have produced 45 goals at a rate of 2.81 per game, with the Cherries scoring 21 of these goals and conceding 24. United’s 16 away contests have yielded 46 goals at the slightly higher rate of 2.87, although they also have a negative goal difference of -2 on the road.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.361.431.391.361.40
Under 2.5 Goals2.802.802.782.802.75

✔️ Bournemouth vs Manchester Utd - Betting Tips

The win market is split ahead of the match between Bournemouth and Man United, although the odds imply a high probability of both teams finding the net and over 2.5 goals being scored in the game. So, here are some expert betting tips to help you navigate these markets and achieve optimal value in relation to your stake!

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: Although the draw is the statistically least likely match outcome here (with odds of around 3.80 and an implied probability of 26.31%), Bournemouth’s home record is almost identical to United’s on the road. The Cherries have already drawn five of their 16 games at the Vitality Stadium too (31.25%), which is higher than the overall Premier League average. You can also back the draw on the south coast at the highly competitive price of price of 4.00 with PalmSlots Sport, which offers exceptional value as a moneyline bet.
  • Tip 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The pre-game odds imply a much higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes at the Vitality Stadium (73.52%), but both of these teams have underperformed their collective xG values in 2023/24 so far. Man United only average 0.09 goals-per-shot in this season’s Premier League too, although Andre Onana has saved an impressive 75.5% of the shots he has faced and helped to counter the Red Devils’ porous midfield. You can bet on under 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.80 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Marcus Rashford as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you want to use one of your available free bets, you could consider accessing the anytime goalscorer market. Marcus Rashford offers significant value here, despite the England striker having only scored seven goals from 58 shots and an xG of 7.1 this season. However, he has also contributed five goals and one assist in just 10 EPL appearances against the Cherries, while his patchy form means that he can be backed as an anytime scorer at the enhanced price of 3.30 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Bournemouth Update

The Cherries have been enduringly inconsistent this season, following up a winless run of nine matches at the beginning of the season with a sequence of just one defeat in nine between October 28th and December 26th. More recently, they’ve only lost one of their previous six Premier League games, while going unbeaten in four at the Vitality Stadium and recording consecutive victories against Luton Town, Everton and Crystal Palace. Over the course of their last 10 games, Bournemouth have taken 15 points from the 30 available to them, placing ninth in the EPL form table during this period.

Last 5 Games
Luton 2
Bournemouth 1
06.04.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 1
Crystal Palace 0
02.04.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Everton 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 4
Luton 3
13.03.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Sheffield United 2
09.03.24
Premier League

Marcus Tavernier has been ruled out with a hamstring injury ahead of the visit of Man United, while both Tyler Adams (back spasms) and Antoine Semenyo (knock) will face late fitness tests ahead of kick-off. Defender Chris Mepham will also be assessed as he continues his recovery from illness. Winger Luis Sinisterra (thigh) and Ryan Fredericks (calf) are longer-term absentees and face a race against time to play again this season.

PlayerReason
Marcus Tavernier Hamstring Injury
Tyler Adams Back Spasms
Antoine Semenyo Knock
Chris Mepham Illness
Luis Sinisterra Thigh Injury
Ryan Fredericks Calf Injury

2️⃣ Man United Update

The 154 shots on goal that Man United have faced in their last six matches have yielded 12 goals, although this number would be much higher were it not for the improved form of shot-stopper Andre Onana. However, after winning four consecutive Premier League matches between February 1st and February 18th, United have since triumphed in just one of their previous six games. They’re also winless in three after a difficult week, during which they’ve scrapped draws against Brentford and Liverpool while conceding twice in stoppage time to lose 4-3 at Chelsea. The Red Devils now sit sixth in the form table over the course of the previous 10 games, taking 17 points from the 30 available to them during this time.

Last 5 Games
Man United 2
Liverpool 2
07.04.24
Premier League
Chelsea 4
Man United 3
04.04.24
Premier League
Brentford 1
Man United 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Man United 4
Liverpool 3
17.03.24
FA Cup
Man United 2
Everton 0
09.03.24
Premier League

Scott McTominay (knee injury) is the latest United player to be ruled out against Bournemouth, with the Scottish midfielder expected to return towards the end of April. He joins Victor Lindelof (hamstring), Lisandro Martinez (calf), Jonny Evans (muscle), Luke Shaw (thigh) and Raphael Varane (muscle) on the sidelines, while Anthony Martial (groin) and Tyrell Malacia (knee) remain long-term absentees. Marcus Rashford also picked up a knock against Liverpool and will be assessed ahead of kick-off on the south coast, but is expected to be passed fit.

PlayerReason
Luke Shaw Thigh Injury
Lisandro Martinez Calf Injury
Jonny Evans Muscle Injury
Marcus Rashford Knock
Scott McTominay Knee Injury
Tyrell Malacia Ineligible
Raphael Varane Muscle Injury
Anthony Martial Groin Injury
Victor Lindelof Hamstring Injury

👕 Bournemouth vs Man United - Potential Lineups

Pos. Bournemouth
4-2-3-1
Man United
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper Neto A. Onana Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Smith A. Wan-Bissaka Right Back
Centre Back I. Zabarnyi W. Kambwala Centre Back
Centre Back L. Kelly H. Maguire Centre Back
Left Back M. Kerkez D. Dalot Left Back
Midfielder L. Cook K. Mainoo Midfielder
Midfielder A. Scott Casemiro Midfielder
Midfielder R. Christie B. Fernandes Midfielder
Wide Forward D. Ouattara A. Garnacho Wide Forward
Striker D. Solanke R. Højlund Striker
Wide Forward J. Kluivert M. Rashford Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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