Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable13:00 GMT, 10th Mar 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 4.00
Bet €100 and win €400 if the match is drawn.
Odds : 3.85
Bet €100 and win €385 if the match is drawn.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 3.80
Bet €100 and win €380 if the match is drawn.

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Both Aston Villa and Tottenham find themselves as surprise contenders for Champions League qualification this season, with Unai Emery’s team currently five points clear of Spurs in fourth. However, Ange Postecoglou’s swashbuckling side have a game in hand and a victory at Villa Park will arguably make them favourites to secure a top-four finish. The bad news for Tottenham is that the Villains remain formidable at home in the Premier League, having taken 31 points from 13 matches at Villa Park this season. So, will Villa take a decisive step towards UCL football this year and what price are the best betting sites offering on a Spurs win?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Tottenham EPL Prediction

The reverse fixture saw a thrilling contest at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on November 26th, with Villa winning 2-1 amid a slew of missed chances for the home side. This was the Villains’ third successive victory in this fixture, but prior to this, they’d won just one of their previous nine matches against Spurs since April 11th, 2015.

The match in November was incredibly open and entertaining with Postecoglou maintaining his team’s incredibly high defensive line and inverting both full backs into attacking positions. The Aussie hasn’t wavered from this approach all season - no team has attempted more tackles in the attacking third than Tottenham (92) this season. Spurs also average 60.50% possession per 90 minutes and have had 5,383 touches in the final third.

However, Spurs have also made 16 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season, compared to just six for Unai Emery’s men. While Villa were also forced to compromise their high defensive line at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they were superb in transition and managed to create an xG of 2.40. They’ll be similarly threatening on the break here too.

I’m expecting another thrilling, end-to-end encounter at Villa Park, with the home side narrow favourites to secure a potentially decisive win. However, Spurs have only lost twice on the road in 2023/24 and recovered 19 points from losing positions overall, and the smart money here may be on a high-scoring draw.

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 2 – 2 Tottenham ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Tottenham EPL Match Odds

Of course, betting on the match result is just one of the available markets when wagering on the EPL clash between Aston Villa and Spurs. You can also wager on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in the game, but how are these markets currently being priced by Betinireland’s football betting sites?

🏅 Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Match Winner

Villa are priced at around 2.30 to defeat Spurs, with these odds implying a 43.47% chance of a win for Unai Emery’s men. However, you can back Spurs to triumph at an average price of 2.60, affording the away side a 38.46% chance of success. Interestingly, the draw can be backed as high as 4.00, which implies a 25.00% probability and is competitively priced given the evenly matched nature of the two competing sides.

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Aston Villa to Win2.302.302.252.302.38
Tottenham to Win2.632.602.582.632.60

⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 10 of Villa’s 13 home games in the 2023/24 Premier League (77.00%), including each of the previous five. The Villains have scored in each one of these matches and kept three clean sheets. Both sides have found the net in nine of Spurs’ 12 games on the road (75.00%), with Postecoglou’s men keeping three clean sheets and yet to draw a single blank.

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🥅 Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villa’s 13 home matches have also produced a total of 50 goals at a rate of 3.84 per game, while the Midlands side have contributed 35 of these (only Liverpool have scored more in front of their home fans). As for Spurs, their 12 away matches have yielded 46 goals at a rate of 3.83 per 90, although the Lilywhites have conceded 20 times on the road at a rate of 1.66 per game.

betway-logo betway-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.331.381.331.361.36
Under 2.5 Goals2.902.882.972.883.00

✔️ Aston Villa vs Tottenham - Betting Tips

The pre-game odds imply an incredibly high probability of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Subsequently, these markets offer little outright value, so here are some betting tips to help you make the most of your starting bankroll and available free bets on your account.

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: Interestingly, the win market offers the most value here, with the bookies offering relatively competitive odds on all potential match outcomes. However, I think the draw offers the most value, with these sides incredibly evenly matched and highly efficient in front of goal (Villa and Spurs have outperformed their respective xG values by +6.6 and +5.8 goals). Villa’s superb record at home is also negated in part by Spurs' obvious resilience on the road, so get on the draw at a price of 4.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Ollie Watkins as an Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins is enjoying another rich vein of goalscoring, hitting seven goals in his last six games both home and away. He’s also the EPL’s second-highest scorer this season with 16 goals from an xG of just 14.2, while his goals-per-shot ratio of 0.41 is superior to both Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah. He also struck the winner at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in November and will relish Spurs’ high defensive line, so back Watkins as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.25 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: The 267 matches contested in the 2023/24 Premier League have produced 864 goals at a rate of 3.24 per 90, so most of the over/under betting activity targets the 2.5 goals line. However, this match has the potential to be particularly high scoring, with Villa Park’s average of 3.84 goals per game higher than every other EPL ground this season. Villa and Spurs produced xG values of 2.23 and 2.40 respectively in the reverse fixture too, so get on over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.00 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

While Villa’s home form has stuttered slightly since a run of 15 consecutive wins between February 18th and December 22nd 2023, they’ve still won 10 times at Villa Park this season and taken 31 points from the 39 available to them. They also looked back to their fluent attacking best in the 4-2 against Nottingham Forest last time out, while the return of Ezri Konsa has provided a significant boost to the defensive line. Overall, the Villains have won four of their previous five Premier League games, scoring 15 goals during this sequence and conceding just seven.

Last 5 Games
Luton Town 2
Aston Villa 3
Premier League
Aston Villa 4
Nottm Forest 2
Premier League
Fulham 1
Aston Villa 2
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Man United 2
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Chelsea 3
FA Cup

Centre-back Diego Carlos will miss the visit of Spurs with a hamstring injury, with the Brazilian ruled out until mid-March at the earliest. Striker Jhon Duran is out until April having suffered a knock, while Boubacar Kamara’s season was ended by a serious knee injury incurred in the 2-1 home defeat to Man United. He joins Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries) as long-term absentees, with both players expected to return to training in June.

Diego Carlos Hamstring Injury
Jhon Duran Knock
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury

2️⃣ Tottenham Update

Spurs mounted another impressive comeback during their 3-1 win over Crystal Palace last time out, with Postecoglou’s side having recovered an impressive 19 points from 15 deficits so far this season. They’ve now taken 20 points from the last 30 available to them in the Premier League too, while a run of just one defeat in seven has taken them six points clear of sixth place Manchester United (with a game in hand). Interestingly, Spurs have drawn more games on the road this season than any other EPL side (five), while they’ve kept just a single clean sheet in their previous seven away matches since October 7th.

Last 5 Games
Tottenham 3
Crystal Palace 1
Premier League
Tottenham 1
Wolves 2
Premier League
Tottenham 2
Brighton 1
Premier League
Everton 2
Tottenham 2
Premier League
Tottenham 3
Brentford 2
Premier League

Full-back Pedro Porro could return for the trip to the West Midlands after struggling with a muscle strain picked up in training. Winger Manor Solomon may also be fit after a niggling knee injury, although the match against Villa may come a little too soon for Brazilian forward Richarlison (also knee). Fraser Forster (ankle) and Ryan Sessegnon (thigh) remain long-term absentees, having been ruled out until April and June respectively.

Pedro Porro Muscle Injury
Manor Solomon Knee Injury
Richarlison Knee Injury
Fraser Forster Ankle Injury
Ryan Sessegnon Thigh Injury

👕 Aston Villa vs Tottenham - Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
Goalkeeper E. Martinez G. Vicario Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Konza P. Porro Right Back
Centre Back P. Torres C. Romero Centre Back
Centre Back C. Lenglet M. van de Ven Centre Back
Left Back L. Digne D. Udogie Left Back
Right Midfielder L. Bailey Y. Bissouma Midfielder
Central Midfielder J. McGinn Pape Matar Sarr Midfielder
Central Midfielder D. Luiz J. Maddison Midfielder
Left Midfielder J. Ramsey D. Kulusevski Wide Forward
Attacking Midfielder Y. Tielemans Son Heung-min Striker
Striker O. Watkins B. Johnson Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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