Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 13:00 GMT, 10th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Back the Draw! |
| Odds | 4.00 |
| Bookmaker | Legend Play Sports |
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Both Aston Villa and Tottenham find themselves as surprise contenders for Champions League qualification this season, with Unai Emery’s team currently five points clear of Spurs in fourth. However, Ange Postecoglou’s swashbuckling side have a game in hand and a victory at Villa Park will arguably make them favourites to secure a top-four finish. The bad news for Tottenham is that the Villains remain formidable at home in the Premier League, having taken 31 points from 13 matches at Villa Park this season. So, will Villa take a decisive step towards UCL football this year and what price are the best betting sites offering on a Spurs win?
🏆 Aston Villa vs Tottenham EPL Prediction
The reverse fixture saw a thrilling contest at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on November 26th, with Villa winning 2-1 amid a slew of missed chances for the home side. This was the Villains’ third successive victory in this fixture, but prior to this, they’d won just one of their previous nine matches against Spurs since April 11th, 2015.
The match in November was incredibly open and entertaining with Postecoglou maintaining his team’s incredibly high defensive line and inverting both full backs into attacking positions. The Aussie hasn’t wavered from this approach all season - no team has attempted more tackles in the attacking third than Tottenham (92) this season. Spurs also average 60.50% possession per 90 minutes and have had 5,383 touches in the final third.
However, Spurs have also made 16 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season, compared to just six for Unai Emery’s men. While Villa were also forced to compromise their high defensive line at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, they were superb in transition and managed to create an xG of 2.40. They’ll be similarly threatening on the break here too.
I’m expecting another thrilling, end-to-end encounter at Villa Park, with the home side narrow favourites to secure a potentially decisive win. However, Spurs have only lost twice on the road in 2023/24 and recovered 19 points from losing positions overall, and the smart money here may be on a high-scoring draw.
My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 2 – 2 Tottenham ⚽
💯 Aston Villa vs Tottenham EPL Match Odds
Of course, betting on the match result is just one of the available markets when wagering on the EPL clash between Aston Villa and Spurs. You can also wager on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in the game, but how are these markets currently being priced by Betinireland’s football betting sites?
🏅 Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Match Winner
Villa are priced at around 2.30 to defeat Spurs, with these odds implying a 43.47% chance of a win for Unai Emery’s men. However, you can back Spurs to triumph at an average price of 2.60, affording the away side a 38.46% chance of success. Interestingly, the draw can be backed as high as 4.00, which implies a 25.00% probability and is competitively priced given the evenly matched nature of the two competing sides.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa to Win | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.38 |
| Tottenham to Win | 2.63 | 2.60 | 2.58 | 2.63 | 2.60 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.85 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in 10 of Villa’s 13 home games in the 2023/24 Premier League (77.00%), including each of the previous five. The Villains have scored in each one of these matches and kept three clean sheets. Both sides have found the net in nine of Spurs’ 12 games on the road (75.00%), with Postecoglou’s men keeping three clean sheets and yet to draw a single blank.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.30 | 1.38 | 1.30 | 1.36 | 1.33 |
| No | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.09 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
🥅 Aston Villa vs Tottenham: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Villa’s 13 home matches have also produced a total of 50 goals at a rate of 3.84 per game, while the Midlands side have contributed 35 of these (only Liverpool have scored more in front of their home fans). As for Spurs, their 12 away matches have yielded 46 goals at a rate of 3.83 per 90, although the Lilywhites have conceded 20 times on the road at a rate of 1.66 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.33 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.90 | 2.88 | 2.97 | 2.88 | 3.00 |
✔️ Aston Villa vs Tottenham - Betting Tips
The pre-game odds imply an incredibly high probability of both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Subsequently, these markets offer little outright value, so here are some betting tips to help you make the most of your starting bankroll and available free bets on your account.
- Tip 1: Back the Draw: Interestingly, the win market offers the most value here, with the bookies offering relatively competitive odds on all potential match outcomes. However, I think the draw offers the most value, with these sides incredibly evenly matched and highly efficient in front of goal (Villa and Spurs have outperformed their respective xG values by +6.6 and +5.8 goals). Villa’s superb record at home is also negated in part by Spurs' obvious resilience on the road, so get on the draw at a price of 4.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Ollie Watkins as an Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins is enjoying another rich vein of goalscoring, hitting seven goals in his last six games both home and away. He’s also the EPL’s second-highest scorer this season with 16 goals from an xG of just 14.2, while his goals-per-shot ratio of 0.41 is superior to both Erling Haaland and Mohamed Salah. He also struck the winner at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in November and will relish Spurs’ high defensive line, so back Watkins as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.25 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Over 3.5 Goals Being Scored: The 267 matches contested in the 2023/24 Premier League have produced 864 goals at a rate of 3.24 per 90, so most of the over/under betting activity targets the 2.5 goals line. However, this match has the potential to be particularly high scoring, with Villa Park’s average of 3.84 goals per game higher than every other EPL ground this season. Villa and Spurs produced xG values of 2.23 and 2.40 respectively in the reverse fixture too, so get on over 3.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.00 with LegendPlay Sports.
1️⃣ Aston Villa Update
While Villa’s home form has stuttered slightly since a run of 15 consecutive wins between February 18th and December 22nd 2023, they’ve still won 10 times at Villa Park this season and taken 31 points from the 39 available to them. They also looked back to their fluent attacking best in the 4-2 against Nottingham Forest last time out, while the return of Ezri Konsa has provided a significant boost to the defensive line. Overall, the Villains have won four of their previous five Premier League games, scoring 15 goals during this sequence and conceding just seven.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Luton Town 2 Aston Villa 3 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
| Aston Villa 4 Nottm Forest 2 | 24.02.24 Premier League |
| Fulham 1 Aston Villa 2 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
| Aston Villa 1 Man United 2 | 11.02.24 Premier League |
| Aston Villa 1 Chelsea 3 | 07.02.24 FA Cup |
Centre-back Diego Carlos will miss the visit of Spurs with a hamstring injury, with the Brazilian ruled out until mid-March at the earliest. Striker Jhon Duran is out until April having suffered a knock, while Boubacar Kamara’s season was ended by a serious knee injury incurred in the 2-1 home defeat to Man United. He joins Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries) as long-term absentees, with both players expected to return to training in June.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Diego Carlos | Hamstring Injury |
| Jhon Duran | Knock |
| Boubacar Kamara | Knee Injury |
| Tyrone Mings | ACL Injury |
| Emiliano Buendia | ACL Injury |
2️⃣ Tottenham Update
Spurs mounted another impressive comeback during their 3-1 win over Crystal Palace last time out, with Postecoglou’s side having recovered an impressive 19 points from 15 deficits so far this season. They’ve now taken 20 points from the last 30 available to them in the Premier League too, while a run of just one defeat in seven has taken them six points clear of sixth place Manchester United (with a game in hand). Interestingly, Spurs have drawn more games on the road this season than any other EPL side (five), while they’ve kept just a single clean sheet in their previous seven away matches since October 7th.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Tottenham 3 Crystal Palace 1 | 02.03.24 Premier League |
| Tottenham 1 Wolves 2 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
| Tottenham 2 Brighton 1 | 10.02.24 Premier League |
| Everton 2 Tottenham 2 | 03.02.24 Premier League |
| Tottenham 3 Brentford 2 | 31.01.24 Premier League |
Full-back Pedro Porro could return for the trip to the West Midlands after struggling with a muscle strain picked up in training. Winger Manor Solomon may also be fit after a niggling knee injury, although the match against Villa may come a little too soon for Brazilian forward Richarlison (also knee). Fraser Forster (ankle) and Ryan Sessegnon (thigh) remain long-term absentees, having been ruled out until April and June respectively.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Pedro Porro | Muscle Injury |
| Manor Solomon | Knee Injury |
| Richarlison | Knee Injury |
| Fraser Forster | Ankle Injury |
| Ryan Sessegnon | Thigh Injury |
👕 Aston Villa vs Tottenham - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Aston Villa 4-4-1-1 | Tottenham 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | E. Martinez | G. Vicario | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | E. Konza | P. Porro | Right Back |
| Centre Back | P. Torres | C. Romero | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | C. Lenglet | M. van de Ven | Centre Back |
| Left Back | L. Digne | D. Udogie | Left Back |
| Right Midfielder | L. Bailey | Y. Bissouma | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | J. McGinn | Pape Matar Sarr | Midfielder |
| Central Midfielder | D. Luiz | J. Maddison | Midfielder |
| Left Midfielder | J. Ramsey | D. Kulusevski | Wide Forward |
| Attacking Midfielder | Y. Tielemans | Son Heung-min | Striker |
| Striker | O. Watkins | B. Johnson | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
