Aston Villa vs Manchester United Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

aston-villa-v-man-unitedaston-villa-v-man-united
TournamentPremier League
Timetable16:30 GMT, 11th Feb 24
PredictionMan United to Win!
Odds3.10
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Man United to Win!
The best odds
Odds : 3.10
Bet €100 and win €310 if Man United win.
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Odds : 3.05
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Odds : 3.00
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aston-villa-v-man-unitedaston-villa-v-man-united

Villa appear to be entering a poor run of form at the worst possible time, having only won two of their last six Premier League games and lost consecutive matches at home in all competitions. They’ve also only won five out of 57 EPL clashes with Manchester United, who have also won four of their last five matches in all competitions. The Red Devils also roared back from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Unai Emery’s men 3-2 at Old Trafford on Boxing Day, and will arrive in the Midlands in confident mood. But will they win again here, and how are the potential match outcomes being priced?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Manchester United EPL Prediction

Not only have Villa won just five of their 57 Premier League clashes with Man United, but they’ve only recorded 51 victories in 197 matches across all competitions since the first meeting in November 1892. Conversely, United have won 105 of these fixtures, with a further 41 ending in draws.

Of course, Villa have won more games than United this season and remain eight points above them in the table, not withstanding their 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford in Manchester. They’ll also be keen to rebound from successive home defeats against Newcastle in the EPL and Chelsea in the FA Cup, in which they’ve scored twice and conceded six times.

Villa also have a considerably higher xG than United (40.8 vs 33.9), despite the two teams being evenly matched in terms of possession and shot-creating actions per 90. This has much to do with the quality of service provided to the respective front lines, with Villa having creating 52 big chances compared to just 35 for United.

The challenge for Villa is at the other end of the pitch, as they’ve conceded in five of their previous seven EPL games and seen their high defensive line become increasingly vulnerable. United exploited this weakness successfully in the recent win at Old Trafford, while they’re ideally set up to play on the counterattack and release runners like Marcus Rashford and the in-form Alejandro Garnacho into space. So, I’m backing United to edge another entertaining and open game!

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 1 – 2 Man United ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Manchester United EPL Match Odds

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The best EPL betting sites are providing in-depth coverage of the upcoming clash between Villa and Man United, offering odds on everything from the match winner and BTTS to the over/under on how many goals will be scored. But how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Aston Villa vs Manchester United: Match Winner

Aston Villa are the pre-game favourites to secure the win, with their average odds of 2.14 implying a 46.72% probability of a home victory. As for United, they can be backed at around 3.00 to complete an EPL double over their opponents, suggesting that they have a 33.33% of winning. The draw is being priced at around 3.75, which implies a 26.66% probability of this outcome occurring.

Team
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Aston Villa to Win2.102.152.142.102.10
Man United to Win3.103.003.053.003.00
Draw3.753.803.703.803.75

⚽ Aston Villa vs Manchester United: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have found the net in eight of Aston Villa’s 11 home Premier League matches this season (73%), with Emery’s men winning six of these encounters and losing just one. Interestingly, both sides have found the net in just four of United’s 11 away matches in the league (36%), including their previous two trips to Nottingham Forest and Wolves respectively.

Yes/No
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Yes1.401.481.461.501.44
No2.602.602.612.502.63

🥅 Aston Villa vs Manchester United: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Eight of Villa’s 11 home games have also seen over 2.5 goals scored, while these fixtures in total have produced 41 goals at a rate of 3.72 per 90. Five of United’s 11 away matches (45%) have also yielded more than 2.5 goals, with the Red Devils winning three of these games (at Sheffield United, Everton and Wolves).

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.501.551.521.531.53
Under 2.5 Goals2.402.402.382.382.38

✔️ Aston Villa vs Manchester United - Betting Tips

There are some intriguingly priced markets in play ahead of the clash between Villa and Man United, but how exactly should you deploy your bankroll or any available free bets on your account? Here are some tips to help you on your way!

  • Tip 1: Back Man United to Win: Villa are the favourites to beat United at the weekend, based primarily on their superb home record of nine wins and just one loss in 11 EPL matches this season. However, the Red Devils have found some stability of late, with the returning Casemiro and Luke Shaw bringing strength and quality in abundance. The pace of United’s front three also wreaked havoc against Villa’s stubbornly high defensive line at Old Trafford, so I think there’s value in backing Erik ten Hag’s men to win outright at a price of 3.10 with 1Bet-Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Rasmus Højlund as an Anytime Goalscorer: Despite his prolific return in the Champions League, Danish striker Rasmus Højlund endured a torrid start to his EPL career. After failing to score in his first 10 EPL appearance for the Red Devils, however, he has since struck four times in five matches, with the winner against Villa on Boxing Day sparking this run. He’ll fancy of continuing this sequence against the Aston Villa defence, and you can get on Højlund as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 3.60 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Man United to Win and Both Sides to Score: Remember, both sides have scored in eight of Villa’s EPL 11 home games this season, while four of United’s last six competitive matches have seen both teams find the net and at least three goals scored. In terms of the recent head-to-head record, four of the last five clashes between Villa and Man United have also seen both sides score, although the Villains have only won one of these fixtures. So, there’s value in backing United to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 4.75 with Betway.

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa actually moved second in the Premier League table after defeating Burnley 3-2 in a thrilling clash at Villa Park on December 30th. However, they’ve won just a single league game since, while a 3-1 home defeat to Newcastle on January 30th saw them slip to fourth. More alarm bells were rang during a 3-1 home defeat to Chelsea in the FA Cup fourth round, which saw Emery’s men overran in the first half and struggle to defend the space in behind their defensive line. In fact, they’ve only kept two clean sheets in their previous seven league games since a 1-0 win over Arsenal, and conceded six in their last three at Villa Park.

Last 5 Games
Aston Villa 1
Chelsea 3
07.02.24
FA Cup
Sheffield United 0
Man United 5
03.02.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 1
Newcastle 3
30.01.24
Premier League
Chelsea 0
Aston Villa 0
26.01.24
FA Cup
Everton 0
Aston Villa 0
14.01.24
Premier League

Villa remain without long-term absentees Tyrone Mings and Emi Buendía for the visit of Man United, as both continue their respective recoveries from cruciate ligament tears. Fellow centre back Ezri Konsa is also sidelined with a knee injury, and Villa certainly missed his presence in the FA Cup defeat against Chelsea. Jhon Duran may also miss out with a hamstring strain. The good news is that Pau Torres is fit again, while full back Lucas Digne is also nearing a return following a thigh injury.

PlayerReason
Tyrone Mings Cruciate Ligament Tear
Emi Buendía Cruciate Ligament Tear
Ezri Konsa Knee Injury
Jhon Duran Hamstring Injury
Lucas Digne Thigh Injury

2️⃣ Man United Update

United’s controlled 3-0 win at home against West Ham saw them win consecutive EPL matches for the just the third time in 2023/24, while the side is now unbeaten in five games in all competitions (since a 2-1 reversal at Nottingham Forest on December 30th). This upturn in form has been inspired by the front three of Marcus Rashford, Rasmus Højlund and Alejandro Garnacho, with this trio having contributed 11 goals and five assists in the previous five Premier League outings. Garnacho certainly likes playing against Villa, producing two goals and two assists in just four appearances to date.

Last 5 Games
Man United 3
West Ham 0
04.02.24
Premier League
Wolves 3
Man United 4
01.02.24
Premier League
Newport County 2
Man United 4
28.01.24
FA Cup
Man United 2
Tottenham 2
14.01.24
Premier League
Wigan 0
Man United 2
08.01.24
FA Cup

The loss of Lisandro Martinez is a huge blow to United, who only recently welcomed back the combative Argentine defender after an extended layoff. He joins Mason Mount (calf injury) and Anthony Martial (groin) on the sidelines, while left back Tyrell Malacia continues his recovery from knee surgery. Sofyan Amrabat is back training with the Red Devils after appearing for Morocco in the African Cup of Nations, while Victor Lindelof made his return as a late substitute in the 3-0 win against West Ham.

PlayerReason
Lisandro Martinez Knee Injury
Mason Mount Calf Injury
Anthony Martial Groin Injury
Tyrell Malacia Knee Surgery

👕 Aston Villa v Man United - Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
4-4-2
Man United
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper E. Martinez A. Onana Goalkeeper
Right Back M. Cash D. Dalot Right Back
Centre Back D. Carlos H. Maguire Centre Back
Centre Back P. Torres R. Varane Centre Back
Left Back A. Moreno L. Shaw Left Back
Right Midfielder L. Bailey Casemiro Midfielder
Central Midfielder B. Kamara K. Mainoo Midfielder
Central Midfielder D. Luiz B. Fernandes Midfielder
Left Midfielder J. McGinn A. Garnacho Wide Forward
Striker M. Diaby R. Højlund Striker
Striker O. Watkins M. Rashford Striker

Man United to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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