Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Aston Villa vs Chelsea EPL Prediction

In the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge in September, an Ollie Watkins goal was enough to secure a 1-0 win for Villa in a turgid and uninspiring encounter. Ultimately, it was Villa’s superior cutting edge that proved crucial, with their goal coming from a collective xG of just 1.13. Chelsea accumulated a similarly modest xG of 1.20 during the 90 minutes but never really looked like scoring.

This was something of a departure for Chelsea, who usually retain possession well and create chances but struggle for efficiency at both ends of the pitch. This is especially true in the attacking third, where Chelsea have underperformed their xG by -6.32 goals and missed 62 big chances this season. Interestingly, this wastefulness has cost them 16 points in the Premier League and undermined much of their good work in the middle third.

Conversely, Villa have outperformed their collective xG of 63.43 by an impressive +7.57 goals, with only Arsenal proving more efficient in front of goal. They’ve also made just 10 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season, compared to a whopping 23 for Chelsea. So, the Blues are also prone to poor decision-making in the defensive third and they’ve already conceded more goals (57) during this campaign than any other with six matches still to play.

It's hard to imagine these attacking and defensive frailties being resolved without further investment from club owner Todd Boehly, although restoring Thiago Silva to the Blues’ starting 11 could help to make them more secure. This won’t be enough to prevent a Villa win, however, although Chelsea will threaten on the break and may well score in the Midlands.

💯 Aston Villa vs Chelsea EPL Match Odds

When you compare the pre-game odds from the market-leading sites, you’ll be able to access variably priced outcomes across a diverse selection of football betting markets. Backing the match winner, BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored remain the most popular markets, but how are these being priced by sportsbooks?

🏅 Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Match Winner

Despite Villa’s exceptional home form and Chelsea’s inconsistency, the odds imply just a 45.87% probability of a victory for Unai Emery’s team. Conversely, you can back the Blues to prevail at an average price of 3.00, suggesting that they have a 33.33% chance of winning in the Midlands. The draw is the statistically least likely outcome and can be backed at around 3.80.

Team
Aston Villa to Win	2.15	2.15	2.18	2.20	2.20
Chelsea to Win	2.90	3.00	2.91	3.00	2.90
Draw	3.80	3.80	3.80	3.75	3.80

⚽ Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 12 of Villa’s 17 EPL home matches this season (71%), with the Midlands team keeping a total of four clean sheets and failing to score just once (against Spurs on March 10th). As for Chelsea, both sides have found the next in 12 of their 16 top-flight games. The Blues have drawn three blanks on the road and kept just two clean sheets (and none in 12 matches since October 2nd).

Yes/No
Yes	1.36	1.40	1.38	1.44	1.40
No	2.80	2.88	2.88	2.80	2.75

🥅 Aston Villa vs Chelsea: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villa’s 17 home matches in the Premier League have produced a whopping 66 goals, at a rate of 3.88 per game. Villa have scored 43 times in front of their own fans at a rate of 2.52 per 90 minutes. Chelsea’s 16 away matches have yielded 58 goals at a rate of 3.62 per 90, although they’ve conceded 32 of these goals at an average of 2.00 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.40	1.44	1.42	1.45	1.45
Under 2.5 Goals	2.70	2.70	2.67	2.63	2.63

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa have now gone three matches unbeaten since a 4-1 thrashing at Manchester City, recording impressive victories against Arsenal and Bournemouth and drawing 3-3 with Brentford in the Midlands. They’ve also lost just one of their previous six EPL outings and taken a total of 20 points from the last 30 available to them since February 11th. Despite a slightly patchier run of form at Villa Park in 2024, Unai Emery’s men have won 12 times at home and taken 38 points from the 51 available to them at this venue so far. So, they’ll once again take some beating in front of their own fans.

Douglas Luiz will make his return against Chelsea, having missed two matches through suspension. However, Alex Moreno has been ruled out with a calf injury, while Nicolo Zaniolo is also being assessed after picking up a knock. Otherwise, Villa remain without four long-term absentees, namely Jacob Ramsey (foot), Boubacar Kamara (knee) and Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries). Each of these players has been ruled out for the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign.

2️⃣ Chelsea Update

Although Chelsea were embarked on an eight-match unbeaten run in the EPL prior to their clash with Arsenal at the Emirates, this came to a shuddering half after a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of the Gunners. Even then, the Blues had only won four matches during their unbeaten sequence, while they also failed to record consecutive victories. Overall, the Blues have now taken 16 points from the previous 30 available to them in the Premier League and conceded 22 goals during this period at a rate of 2.20 per 90 minutes. Pochettino’s men have also won just two of their last 11 matches on the road since November 6th.

Chelsea are sweating on the availability of talisman Cole Palmer, after he missed the match against the Gunners will illness. However, Ben Chilwell (knee injury), Enzo Fernandez (groin) and Malo Gusto (knee) have already been ruled out and joined the Blues’ lengthy injury list. This also includes Levi Colwill (ankle), while Robert Sanchez (illness), Christopher Nkunku (thigh injury) and club captain Reece James (hamstring) won’t return until May. Lesley Ugochukwu (thigh) is also set to return next month, but Romeo Lavia (thigh) and Wesley Fofana (knee) won’t play again in the 2023/24 campaign.

👕 Aston Villa vs Chelsea - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.