Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

aston-villa-v-brentford-logo aston-villa-v-brentford-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT, 6th April 24
PredictionAston Villa to Win!
Odds1.70
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
Aston Villa to Win!
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aston-villa-v-brentford-logo aston-villa-v-brentford-logo

Villa saw their hopes of securing UCL football damaged by a 4-1 defeat at Man City last time out, but they were always likely to face a backlash after Pep Guardiola’s team dropped points against Arsenal. The good news is that the Villains remain fourth in the Premier League and in pole position to secure a coveted Champions League spot, with the visit of a struggling Brentford outfit affording them the chance to win another crucial three points. But will they achieve this objective, and what have Ireland’s best betting sites had to say about the outcome?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Brentford EPL Prediction

Villa won the reverse fixture 2-1 at the Gtech Community Stadium in December, after a typically combative and bad-tempered encounter. Unai Emery’s side scored two second-half goals in a come-from-behind victory, while they accumulated an impressive xG of 1.47 during the 90 minutes (compared to just 0.80 for the Bees).

Brentford have only won two of their subsequent 14 matches in the Premier League, and are 19th in the EPL form table having taken just five points from the previous 30 available to them. The Bees also continue to toil in front of goal, having missed 59 big chances this season (no team has missed more) and underperformed their collective xG by a whopping -7.8 goals.

Villa have taken 17 points from their last 10 EPL matches, despite losing three times at home during this sequence. They also performed well when defeating Wolves 2-0 at Villa Park on March 30th, while the team’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.13 has only been bettered by Newcastle in the 2023/24 campaign so far.

The Villains may also welcome back Ollie Watkins for the visit of Brentford, with John McGinn poised to return after completing a three-match suspension too. This, coupled with Brentford’s poor form and wastefulness in front of goal, should enable Villa to claim a crucial win in the quest to secure UCL football next season.

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 2 – 1 Brentford ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Brentford EPL Match Odds

Unsurprisingly, Villa are the favourites to defeat Brentford among Betinireland’s market-leading football betting sites. You can also bet on BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored during the 90 minutes, but how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Aston Villa vs Brentford: Match Winner

You can back Villa to defeat the Bees at an average price of 1.67, which implies a 59.88% probability of a home win. If you want to bet on Brentford, you can do so at odds of around 4.50, suggesting that Thomas Frank’s men only have a 22.22% of claiming their fourth EPL win on the road in the 2023/24 season.

Team
Aston Villa to Win1.671.701.671.701.67
Brentford to Win4.504.504.454.504.50
Draw4.004.004.154.004.00

⚽ Aston Villa vs Brentford: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 67% of Aston Villa’s home Premier League games this season, with Unai Emery’s men keeping a total of four clean sheets and drawing just a single blank (against Spurs on March 10th). Both sides have found the net in 53% of Brentford’s away matches, although the Bees have failed to score on four separate occasions on the road. Thomas Frank’s men have also kept three clean sheets on their travels.

Yes/No
Yes1.501.551.551.571.50
No2.402.402.472.302.40

🥅 Aston Villa vs Brentford: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villa have played 15 matches at home in the 2023/24 Premier League, with these contests producing a total of 56 goals at a rate of 3.73 per game. The Villains have scored 37 of these goals and are the EPL’s fifth-highest scorers at home. Brentford’s 15 away matches have yielded 42 goals at a rate of 2.80 per 90 minutes, although the Bees have conceded 25 of these.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.501.501.501.501.50
Under 2.5 Goals2.402.502.432.502.50

✔️ Aston Villa vs Brentford - Betting Tips

Some markets will be more appealing than others when wagering on the match between Aston Villa and Brentford, whether you’re deploying your real money bankroll or one of your available free bets. Here are some expert tips to help you navigate the best and most profitable markets!

  • Tip 1: Back Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score: Although the Bees have only won three of their previous 20 league matches (and lost 14 of these games), they’ve managed to score in 15 of these contest and drawn just four blanks on the road all season. They’ve also scored in six of their previous seven away matches since a 1-0 defeat to Sheffield United on December 9th. So, there’s value in backing the Villains to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 2.90 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 2: Back Ollie Watkins as an Anytime Goalscorer: Ollie Watkins is expected to return to the starting 11 for the visit of Brentford, after missing out against City with a hamstring strain. This will provide a significant boost to the Villains, with Watkins having already scored 16 Premier League goals this season from 89 attempts and an xG of just 14.6. The former Bees striker also has two goals in just four EPL appearances against his old club, including a late winner in the reverse fixture in December. You can back Watkins as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.25 with Royalistplay.
  • Tip 3: Back Villa to Win by a Single Goal: Villa’s home form has tailed off slightly since a run of 15 consecutive wins at Villa Park between February 18th and December 9th 2023, but they’ve still taken 34 points from the 45 available to them at home in 2023/24. However, Brentford are always competitive on the road and four of their previous five away defeats have been by just a single goal. Because of this, there’s value in backing Villa to triumph by the odd goal at the enhanced price of 4.00 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s 2-0 win against Wolves last weekend ended a run of three defeats in four EPL home matches for Unai Emery’s side, and they’ve now won three of their last seven in front of their fans. However, the Villain’s away form has picked up since the turn of the year, so the Midlands outfit has managed to climb to 6th in the EPL form table. Overall, they’ve taken 17 points from the last 30 available to them and will expect to win again against Brentford, against whom they’ve lost just once in five outings since the Bees made their debut in the top flight.

Last 5 Games
Man City 4
Aston Villa 1
03.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Wolves 0
30.03.24
Premier League
West Ham 1
Aston Villa 1
17.03.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 4
Ajax 0
14.03.24
UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 0
Tottenham 4
10.03.24
Premier League

Not only are Ollie Watkins (hamstring) and John McGinn (suspension) expected to return to the first team this weekend, but Jacob Ramsey (foot), Nicolo Zaniolo (knock) and Emiliano Martinez (illness) will also be assessed ahead of kick-off and may play some part against Brentford. However, Matty Cash has been ruled out with a hamstring injury, while Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries) and Boubacar Kamara (knee) won’t play in the 2023/24 season.

PlayerReason
Jacob Ramsey Foot Injury
Nicolo Zaniolo Knock
Emiliano Martinez Illness
Ollie Watkins Hamstring Injury
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury
Matty Cash Hamstring Injury

2️⃣ Brentford Update

Although Brentford have now managed to avoid defeat in two successive EPL matches for the first time since a 2-0 win over Chelsea in October, they’re also winless in eight games since February. Even more alarmingly, the team have only won three of their previous 20 Premier League contests, with this sequence also yielding 14 defeats and three draws. Across these 20 matches, they’ve only taken 12 of the 60 points available to them home and away, although the good news is that they secured just their second clean sheet in 21 top-flight games against Brighton in midweek.

Last 5 Games
Brentford 0
Brighton 0
03.04.24
Premier League
Brentford 1
Man United 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Burnley 2
Brentford 1
16.03.24
Premier League
Arsenal 2
Brentford 1
09.03.24
Premier League
Brentford 2
Chelsea 2
02.03.24
Premier League

Brentford could welcome back exciting young forward Kevin Schade for the trip to the Midlands, although the match may come a little too soon for centre-back Ethan Pinnock (foot injury) and midfield anchor Christian Norgaard (lower back). Aaron Hickey (thigh) misses out and won’t make his return until early May, while Ben Mee (ankle), Rico Henry (knee) and Josh Dasilva (also knee) have been ruled out for the remainder of the 2023/24 campaign.

PlayerReason
Aaron Hickey Hamstring Injury
Ben Mee Ankle Injury
Christian Norgaard Lower Back Injury
Ethan Pinnock Foot Injury
Kevin Schade Groin Injury
Rico Henry Knee Injury
Joshua Dasilva Knee Injury

👕 Aston Villa vs Brentford- Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
4-4-2
Brentford
3-5-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper E. Martinez M. Flekken Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Konza M. Jørgensen Right Centre Back
Centre Back P. Torres K. Ajer Centre Back
Centre Back D. Carlos N. Collins Left Centre Back
Left Back A. Moreno M. Roerslev Right Wing Back
Right Midfielder L. Bailey V. Janelt Central Midfielder
Central Midfielder D. Luiz F. Onyeka Central Midfielder
Central Midfielder J. McGinn M. Jensen Central Midfielder
Left Midfielder N. Zaniolo K. Lewis-Potter Left Wing Back
Striker M. Diaby I. Toney Striker
Striker O. Watkins B. Mbeumo Striker

Aston Villa to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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