Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable15:00 GMT, 21st April 24
PredictionAston Villa to Win!
Odds1.78
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
Aston Villa to Win!
The best odds
1.
Bet €100 and win €178 if Aston Villa win.
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.75
Bet €100 and win €175 if Aston Villa win.
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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.73
Bet €100 and win €173 if Aston Villa win.
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aston-villa-vs-bournemouth aston-villa-vs-bournemouth

Villa were superb during their 2-0 win at the Emirates last weekend, as they took a massive step towards Champions League qualification and struck a crucial blow to Arsenal’s title challenge. They’ll look to build on this against Bournemouth at Villa Park, but the Cherries are in a decent vein of form and have taken 15 points from the previous 30 available to them in the Premier League. The Villains’ home form has also been mixed of late, with Newcastle, Man United and Spurs all claiming three points at Villa Park in 2024. But which team will prevail here, and what have Ireland’s best betting sites had to say?

🏆 Aston Villa vs Bournemouth EPL Prediction

These two sides contested an exciting 2-2 draw at the Vitality Stadium in December, with Ollie Watkins’ last-gasp header securing a point for the Villains. However, Bournemouth created the better chances and accumulated an impressive xG of 2.55, compared to just 0.90 for a largely under-par Villa side.

This game reflected the strides made by the Cherries under new head coach Andoni Iraola, who has asked his charges to adopt a higher defensive and recover the ball in the final third as often as possible. To this end, they’ve completed 1723 ball recoveries this season (only Liverpool have recorded more), while the team has attempted 600 tackles and 88 in the attacking third.

Such tactics helped Bournemouth to dominate a disjointed Man United side last weekend, but they’re less effective on the road and against organised opponents such as Villa. Unai Emery’s side are also among the most impressive attacking forces in the league, averaging 3.58 goal-creation actions per 90 minutes. They’re also the fifth-highest scorers in this season’s EPL and have outperformed their xG of 60.80 by +7.20 goals.

Ultimately, I expect an open and entertaining match at Villa Park, during which the home team will dominate possession and Bournemouth will attempt to counter-press aggressively. However, Emery’s men were very impressive in victory at Arsenal and retained an incredible goal threat at home, and I’m tipping them to earn another crucial three points here.

My Prediction: 🏆 Aston Villa 3 – 1 Bournemouth ⚽

💯 Aston Villa vs Bournemouth EPL Match Odds

When you bet on the EPL clash between Villa and Bournemouth, you can access a diverse selection of leading football betting markets. However, the most popular remain the match winner, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored the game. Let’s take a closer look at these markets.

🏅 Aston Villa vs Bournemouth: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly, Villa are the clear favourites to defeat Bournemouth at Villa Park. You can back Emery’s men to prevail at a price of around 1.75, implying a 57.14% probability of a home win. As for the Cherries, they have average odds of 4.00 in the win market, suggesting that they have just a 25.00% of recording their sixth away victory of the campaign.

Team
Aston Villa to Win1.731.781.711.731.75
Bournemouth to Win4.003.803.904.004.00
Draw4.004.204.004.154.00

⚽ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 11 of Aston Villa’s 16 home matches this season (69%), with Emery’s charges keeping just four clean sheets and failing to score only once. They’ve kept just a single clean sheet in their last eight home games since December 9th. Both sides have found the net in 73% of Bournemouth’s 15 away matches, with the Cherries keeping three clean sheets on the road and also drawing a single blank.

Yes/No
Yes1.401.451.401.501.40
No2.602.702.682.602.63

🥅 Aston Villa vs Bournemouth: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Villa’s 16 home matches in 2023/24 have produced a whopping 62 goals at the impressive rate of 3.87 per game. They’ve scored 40 of these goals at a rate of 2.50 per 90 minutes. The 15 away EPL matches contested by Bournemouth have yielded 55 goals at a rate of 3.66 per 90, with the Cherries conceding 31 goals on the road at more than two goals per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.401.441.411.401.44
Under 2.5 Goals2.602.702.632.752.63

✔️ Aston Villa vs Bournemouth - Betting Tips

This is statistically likely to be a high-scoring encounter, so there’s a number of markets that you may look to target with your real money bankroll and available free bets. So, I’ve prepared some betting tips to help you identify the best value markets and leverage these successfully.

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 Goals: Most over/under betting activity in the EPL takes place around the 2.5 goals line, but Villa’s home matches have produced an average of 3.87 goals per 90 this season. Bournemouth’s games on the road have seen 3.66 goals scored per 90 minutes, while the reverse fixture on the south coast produced an open 2-2 draw. The odds also imply a 46.51% probability of over 3.5 goals being scored, and you can get on this market at the competitive price of 2.15 with RoyalistPlay.
  • Tip 2: Back Villa to Win and Both Teams to Score: Combination betting requires picking two or more match outcomes that are statistically likely to occur. In this case, Villa are odds-on to defeat Bournemouth at home and have a 57.14% chance of prevailing. At the same time, the odds imply a 68.96% probability of both teams scoring at Villa Park, which makes sense given their previous performances in 2023/24. So, why not back Villa to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 2.90 with Betiton?
  • Tip 3: Back Villa in the Half-Time, Full-Time Market: Villa have scored 32 of their 68 EPL goals during the first 45 minutes of matches this season (47%), with only Arsenal more prolific during the first half of games. Conversely, Bournemouth have shipped 24 goals during the same timeframe, including 11 between minutes 31 and 45 alone. Because of this, there’s significant value in backing Villa in the half-time, full-time market this weekend, especially at the competitive price of 2.80 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ Aston Villa Update

Villa’s impressive 2-0 win at the Emirates last weekend ended a run of just one win in five matches for Unai Emery’s men, while enabling the team to move three points clear of rivals Spurs in the quest for Champions League football next season. Overall, the Villains remain fifth in the EPL form table, having won five of their previous 10 games and taken 17 points from the 30 available to them since February 11th. However, Villa have won just two and lost three of their last six home matches, during which Emery’s side have also shipped a worrying 14 goals.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 0
Aston Villa 2
14.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Lille 1
11.04.24
UEFA Europa League
Aston Villa 3
Brentford 3
06.04.24
Premier League
Man City 4
Aston Villa 1
03.04.24
Premier League
Aston Villa 2
Wolves 0
30.03.24
Premier League

Douglas Luiz will miss out against Bournemouth, as he continues to serve a suspension after collecting 10 yellow cards in the Premier League. However, Matty Cash is back in training after recovering from a hamstring injury. Otherwise, Jacob Ramsey (foot), Boubacar Kamara (knee) and Tyrone Mings and Emiliano Buendia (both ACL injuries) remain long-term absentees and won’t feature again this season.

PlayerReason
Douglas Luiz Suspended
Jacob Ramsey Foot Injury
Boubacar Kamara Knee Injury
Tyrone Mings ACL Injury
Emiliano Buendia ACL Injury

2️⃣ Bournemouth Update

Bournemouth’s season has been defined by winning and losing streaks, but they’ll be delighted to be have amassed 42 points from 32 matches so far and achieved safety with several games to spare. This is especially true after the Cherries endured a nine-match winless run from the beginning of the campaign. More recently, they’ve lost just one of their previous seven EPL matches and taken 14 points from the last 21 available to them, placing them sixth in the form table during this period. However, they’ve only won one of their previous six away matches in the Premier League, since a 3-2 win at the City Ground on December 23rd.

Last 5 Games
Bournemouth 2
Man United 2
13.04.24
Premier League
Luton 2
Bournemouth 1
06.04.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 1
Crystal Palace 0
02.04.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 2
Everton 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 4
Luton 3
13.03.24
Premier League

Luis Sinisterra was withdrawn during the first half of the clash against Man United last weekend, having suffered a reoccurrence of a previous thigh injury. He’ll be assessed ahead of the trip to Villa Park. However, Tyler Adams (lower back injury), Antoine Semenyo (calf) and Chris Mepham (illness) are all nearing a return to first-team action. Marcus Tavernier is sidelined until May with a thigh injury, while full back Ryan Fredericks is out for the remainder of the season with a calf complaint.

PlayerReason
Marcus Tavernier Thigh Injury
Tyler Adams Lower Back
Antoine Semenyo Calf Injury
Chris Mepham Illness
Luis Sinisterra Thigh Injury
Ryan Fredericks Calf Injury

👕 Aston Villa vs Bournemouth- Potential Lineups

Pos. Aston Villa
4-4-2
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper E. Martinez Neto Goalkeeper
Right Back E. Konza A. Smith Right Back
Centre Back P. Torres I. Zabarnyi Centre Back
Centre Back D. Carlos M. Senesi Centre Back
Left Back L. Digne M. Kerkez Left Back
Right Midfielder L. Bailey L. Cook Midfielder
Central Midfielder Y. Tielemans R. Christie Midfielder
Central Midfielder J. McGinn J. Kluivert Central Midfielder
Left Midfielder N. Zaniolo D. Ouattara Wide Forward
Striker M. Rogers D. Solanke Striker
Striker O. Watkins E. Ünal Wide Forward

Aston Villa to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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