Arsenal vs Newcastle Utd Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
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| Timetable | 20:00 GMT, 24th Feb 24 |
| Prediction | Arsenal to Win! |
| Odds | 1.50 |
| Bookmaker | Palmslots Sport |
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Arsenal are the EPL’s form team, having won four top flight games in a row and scored an incredible 21 goals during this run. They’ve only lost one of their 12 Premier League home matches all season too, while their gameweek 26 opponents Newcastle remain defensively vulnerable and have taken just 11 points from their previous 10 games. However, the Geordies are at least unbeaten in four after a torrid run. But can they spring a surprise at the Emirates, and how are the best betting sites pricing the various potential match outcomes?
🏆 Arsenal vs Newcastle Utd EPL Prediction
The Magpies have only won three of their last 25 matches against Arsenal in all competitions, since a 1-0 win at the Emirates on November 7th, 2010. Intriguingly, this was also the last time they beat Arsenal away from home, while the Gunners enjoyed a superb run of 10 successive wins in this fixture between March 2012 and December 2017.
While Arsenal have also netted 21 goals in their previous 5 EPL matches, Newcastle have shipped 20 in their last eight, failing to keep a clean sheet since beating Fulham 3-0 on December 16th. They’ve conceded two or more goals in six of their last seven outings too, while making 12 errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal since the beginning of the season.
From an attacking perspective, it’s interesting to note that Newcastle have created more big chances than Arsenal this season (60 as opposed to 54). The respective xG values of these teams are also similar (48.2 vs 50.2), while Eddie Howe’s side have scored a league high 0.14 goals per shot and showcased genuine efficiency in the opponent’s penalty area.
While I expect Newcastle to score at the Emirates, however, it’s hard to see their defence keeping Arsenal at bay, while the Gunners average 60.6% possession per 90 minutes and will look to dominate the ball from the outset in North London. This will allow their in-form attacking players to take centre stage, ensuring the Gunners record a sixth consecutive league win.
My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 3 – 1 Newcastle ⚽
💯 Arsenal vs Newcastle Utd EPL Match Odds
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Betinireland’s leading sportsbooks have already published their pre-game odds ahead of Arsenal vs Newcastle United, enabling you to bet on everything from the match winner and BTTS to the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game. But how are these popular football betting markets currently being priced?
🏅 Arsenal vs Newcastle: Match Winner
Arsenal are the overwhelming favourites to defeat Newcastle, with both teams’ recent form having shortened the Gunners odds. They’re now priced at around 1.40 to prevail at the Emirates, which implies a 71.42% probability of a home win. Alternatively, you can back Newcastle at an average price of 7.50, suggesting that they have just a 13.33% chance of winning in North London.
| Team | .png) | .png) | .png) | .png) | .png) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to Win | 1.33 | 1.40 | 1.34 | 1.50 | 1.36 |
| Newcastle to Win | 7.50 | 6.50 | 7.10 | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.25 |
⚽ Arsenal vs Newcastle: Both Teams To Score
Both teams have scored in seven of Arsenal’s 12 home league matches this season (58%), with the Gunners keeping four clean sheets and failing to score only once. Interestingly, both sides have also found the net in seven of Newcastle’s away games, although they’ve drawn four blanks on the road and kept just a single clean sheet (in the 8-0 win over Sheffield United on September 24th).
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.62 | 1.70 | 1.65 | 1.65 | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.12 | 2.00 | 2.10 |
🥅 Arsenal vs Newcastle: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Arsenal’s 12 home games in the 2023/24 Premier League have produced a total of 41 goals, at a rate of 3.41 per 90 minutes. The Gunners have scored an impressive 30 of these goals at a rate of exactly 2.5 per game. As for Newcastle, their 12 away matches have seen 47 goals scored at a rate of 3.91 per game, so the bookies are anticipating a relatively high scoring contest at the Emirates.
| Over/Under | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.40 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.44 | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.63 | 2.70 | 2.65 | 2.70 | 2.63 |
✔️ Arsenal vs Newcastle - Betting Tips
It can be argued that Arsenal’s price is a little short given the quality that Newcastle possess, but the respective form of both teams and the Magpies’ defensive frailties have increased the likelihood of a Gunners’ win. So, how can you create value when betting on Arsenal vs Newcastle and make the most of your starting bankroll?
- Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: Just as the win market heavily favours an Arsenal win at the weekend, the BTTS odds also imply a 61% chance of both sides scoring at the Emirates. So, you may want to consider combining these markets in a single wager, at the competitive price of 2.63 with LegendPlay. After all, Arsenal have only failed to score once at home all season and are in a rich vein of goalscoring form, while Newcastle have found the net in four of their last five matches on the road.
- Tip 2: Back Bukayo Saka as an Anytime Goalscorer: Bukayo Saka’s return to top form has been key to Arsenal’s recent goal glut, with the talented 22-year-old scoring seven goals in his previous six matches and netting consecutive braces against West Ham and Burnley. He’s now scored in four successive EPL games, while he has produced three goal involvements (two goals and one assist) in seven encounters with the Magpies. So, get on Saka as an anytime goalscorer at the price of 2.65 with PalmSlots Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win With a Handicap of -1.75 Goals: If you have one or more free bets available, you could consider backing the Gunners to win with a small handicap of -1.75 goals. Remember, Arsenal have won by a margin of two goals or more in four of their last five Premier League matches, while five of Newcastle’s seven away defeats in 2023/24 have been by a similar margin. You can get on this at the competitive price of 2.30 with 1Bet Sports.
1️⃣ Arsenal Update
Arsenal have taken 19 points from the last 30 available to them in the Premier League, having followed up a run of just one win in five over the festive period with five consecutive victories since the beginning of 2024. This winning streak has included 5-0 victories at home against Crystal Palace and away at Burnley, while they also thrashed London rivals West Ham 6-0 at the London Stadium on February 11th. Both Saka and Gabriel Martinelli have also hit top form during this run, contributing 10 goal involvements (nine goals and one assist) between them and accounting for almost half of Arsenal’s 21 goals scored.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Burnley 0 Arsenal 5 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
| West Ham 0 Arsenal 6 | 11.02.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 3 Liverpool 1 | 04.02.24 Premier League |
| Nottingham Forest 1 Arsenal 2 | 30.01.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 5 Crystal Palace 0 | 20.01.24 Premier League |
Arsenal may also be boosted by the return of striker Gabriel Jesus, as he nears a complete recovery from a groin injury. Fabio Viera may also be involved in the matchday squad after recovering from a hip complaint, while Thomas Partey (thigh injury) is closing in on a return too. However, Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf) remains a doubt, while Jurrien Timber remains a long-term absentee as he continues his rehabilitation following a serious knee injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Jesus | Groin Injury |
| Fabio Viera | Hip Injury |
| Thomas Partey | Thigh Injury |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | Calf Injury |
| Jurrien Timber | Knee Injury |
2️⃣ Newcastle Update
Newcastle have endured a slight upturn in form recently, going unbeaten in four EPL matches since January 30th. However, this followed a harrowing run of one win in seven top flight games, with this sequence including four successive defeats on the road at Everton, Tottenham, Luton Town and Liverpool. The Magpies’ defensive issues have been particularly destabilising this season, with Eddie Howe’s men having shipped 20 goals in their last eight league matches and conceded 25 in 12 away games since the beginning of the season (at a rate of 2.08 goals per 90). Make no mistake; Newcastle win need to tighten up if they’re to get anything at the Emirates.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Newcastle 2 Bournemouth 2 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
| Nottingham Forest 2 Newcastle 3 | 10.02.24 Premier League |
| Newcastle 4 Luton Town 4 | 03.02.24 Premier League |
| Aston Villa 1 Newcastle 3 | 30.01.23 Premier League |
| Fulham 0 Newcastle 2 | 27.01.23 FA Cup |
Newcastle remain without a huge selection of players against Arsenal, although there is some good news in that Joe Willock (calf injury) and Alexander Isak (groin) could be poised to return. However, Callum Wilson (chest), Joelinton (thigh) and Nick Pope (shoulder) are long-term absentees for Eddie Howe, while young midfielder Elliot Anderson (lower back) and full back Matt Targett (hamstring) won’t return until March. Fabian Schar is a doubt with a wrist injury too, while Sandro Tonali continues to serve his season-long suspension for breaching betting rules.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Callum Wilson | Chest Injury |
| Joelinton | Thigh Injury |
| Nick Pope | Shoulder Injury |
| Elliot Anderson | Lower Back Injury |
| Matt Targett | Hamstring Injury |
| Fabian Schar | Wrist Injury |
| Sandro Tonali | Suspended |
👕 Arsenal vs Newcastle - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Arsenal 4-3-3 | Newcastle 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | D. Raya | M. Dúbravka | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | B. White | K. Trippier | Right Back |
| Centre Back | W. Saliba | J. Lascelles | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Gabriel | S. Botman | Centre Back |
| Left Back | J. Kiwior | T. Livramento | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Ødegaard | S. Longstaff | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | D. Rice | B. Guimarães | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | K. Havertz | L. Miley | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | B. Saka | M. Almirón | Wide Forward |
| Striker | L. Trossard | A. Isak | Striker |
| Striker | G. Martinelli | A. Gordon | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
