Arsenal vs Luton Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

arsenal-v-luton-logo arsenal-v-luton-logo
TournamentPremier League
Timetable19:30 GMT, 3rd April 24
PredictionArsenal to win!
Odds1.11
BookmakerPalmslots Sport
Arsenal to win!
The best odds
1.
Palm​slots Sport
Odds : 1.11
Bet €100 and win €111 if Arsenal win.
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2.
betway
Odds : 1.10
Bet €100 and win €110 if Arsenal win.
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€50+ 50 Free Spins
3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.09
Bet €100 and win €109 if Arsenal win.
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arsenal-v-luton-logo arsenal-v-luton-logo

Arsenal showcased immense resilience and defensive organisation during their 0-0 draw at Man City last time out, leaving them second in the Premier League and just two points off top spot. However, they’ll expect to return to their free-flowing attacking best against Luton in midweek, especially with the Hatters having gone winless in nine matches and seen their threadbare squad stretched to breaking point. It’s certainly hard to look past a convincing win for the Gunners here, but how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing a home victory and what are the chances of a shock Luton triumph?

🏆 Arsenal vs Luton EPL Prediction

These two teams contested a seven-goal thriller back on December 5th, with the Gunners emerging with a 4-3 win thanks to Declan Rice’s stoppage time goal. Of course, Arsenal dominated much of the match, boasting 67% possession and creating an xG of 2.59 during the 90 minutes. Conversely, Luton managed to score their three goals from a collective xG of just 0.53 and four shots on target.

This game showcased Arsenal’s quality in the attacking third, with the team having produced 4.03 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes through 2023/24 so far. They’ve also outperformed their collective xG by a whopping +9.7 goals in the Premier League, highlighting incredible efficiency in front of goal despite the Gunners’ perceived lack of a world-class centre forward.

While Luton has an average of 2.23 goal-creating actions per 90 and has surprised many with their level of competitiveness in the Premier League, this success has been built on the intensity and aggression of Rob Edwards' team. To this end, they’ve completed 1,534 ball recoveries in this season’s EPL, with only Liverpool, Bournemouth and Everton recording more.

The Hatters’ intensity has dropped of late, however, against the backdrop of an injury crisis that could leave them without 13 first-team players for the trip to North London. This will make it significantly easier for Arsenal to sustain attacks and feed their creative players throughout, so I’m tipping a comfortable victory for the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 4 – 0 Luton Town ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Luton EPL Match Odds

Football betting always unlocks a significant number of wagering markets, such as the match winner and result, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during a 90-minute game. But how are these markets priced ahead of the clash between Arsenal and Luton?

🏅 Arsenal vs Luton: Match Winner

The pre-game odds make Arsenal the 1.09 favourites to defeat Luton in North London, implying a 91.74% probability of a home win. Conversely, the Hatters can be backed at around 21.00 to spring a surprise at the Emirates, suggesting that they have just a 4.76% chance of recording an away win. The draw has an average price of 10.00 and a 10% probability of occurring.

Team
Arsenal to Win 1.09 1.10 1.09 1.11 1.09
Luton Town to Win 23.00 19.00 21.25 21.00 19.00
Draw 10.00 10.00 10.40 10.00 10.00

⚽ Arsenal vs Luton: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have scored in 64% of Arsenal’s home EPL matches this season, with Mikel Arteta’s men keeping four clean sheets and drawing just a single blank (during a 2-0 defeat to West Ham on December 28th). Interestingly, both sides have found the net in a whopping 80% of Luton’s 15 away matches so far this season, with Rob Edwards’ men failing to score on three occasions and yet to keep a single clean sheet.

Yes/No
Yes 2.00 2.05 2.17 2.00 2.00
No 1.73 1.75 1.64 1.73 1.73

🥅 Arsenal vs Luton: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal have played 14 home matches in this season’s Premier League, yielding 49 goals at a rate of 3.50 per game. The Gunners have struck 36 of these goals at a rate of 2.57 per 90 minutes, with only Liverpool, Newcastle and Aston Villa scoring more in front of their own fans. These 15 away matches contested by Luton have produced 57 goals at a rate of 3.8 per game, with the Hatters conceding 36 times at a rate of 2.40 per 90.

Over/Under
Over 2.5 Goals 1.22 1.25 1.22 1.25 1.25
Under 2.5 Goals 3.60 3.80 3.85 4.00 3.75

✔️ Arsenal vs Luton - Betting Tips

According to the pre-game odds, there’s a heightened probability of both Arsenal winning and and over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. But how should this inform your selections ahead of this EPL clash? Here are some betting tips to keep in mind.

  • Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win With Over 3.5 Goals Scored: There’s minimal value in backing Arsenal to beat Luton outright, but combination betting may enable you to wager on the Gunners at enhanced odds. For example, wagering on Arsenal to win with over 3.5 goals scored unlocks the enhanced price of 1.80 with 1Bet Sports, while this reflects the Gunners’ firepower and potential impact of Luton’s defensive absentees. The odds also imply a 58.82% probability of over 3.5 goals being scored in this game, so it’s a statistically likely outcome that’s worthy of consideration.
  • Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win With a Handicap of -3.5 Goals: When deploying one of your available free bets, it may be worth backing Arsenal to win with a sizable handicap. After all, Luton’s competitiveness has dwindled during a nine-game winless run that has seen them incur multiple injuries, while Arsenal remain in a rich vein of form and are unbeaten in the league in 2024. You can bet on the Gunners to prevail with a handicap of -3.5 goals at the enhanced price of 2.80 with LegendPlay.

  • Tip 3: Back Arsenal to Win by Four or More Goals: Similarly, you can get on Arsenal to win by four or more goals at the highly competitive price of 3.10 with PalmSlots Sports. Certainly, the Gunners have won eight of their previous nine EPL games since December 31st, scoring 33 goals during this sequence and conceding just four. Five of these victories have been achieved by three clear goals or more, too, and Arteta’s men will be confident of recording another big Premier League win here.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

While Arsenal’s 0-0 draw at the Etihad last weekend may have arrested their impressive eight-match winning run, they’re now unbeaten in nine league games since the beginning of 2024. This means they’ve taken 25 points from the last 27 available to them in the Premier League, while their eight victories this calendar year have been achieved by an aggregate score of 33-4. The only good news for Luton is that the Gunners have scored less and conceded more at home than they have on the road during this run, but they remain a formidable outfit in peak form at the time of writing.

Last 5 Games
Man City 0
Arsenal 0
31.03.24
Premier League
Arsenal 1
FC Porto 0
12.03.24
Champions League
Arsenal 2
Brentford 1
09.03.24
Premier League
Sheffield United0
Arsenal 6
04.03.24
Premier League
Arsenal 4
Newcastle United1
24.02.24
Premier League

Unlike their opponents, the Gunners are virtually at full strength for the visit of Luton, with Gabriel Martinelli (foot injury) having made his return off the bench during the goalless draw at the Etihad. In fact, Arsenal’s only confirmed absentee remains Dutch utility man Jurrien Timber, who’s continuing his recovery from an ACL injury and is scheduled to return in early May.

Player Reason
Jurrien Timber ACL Injury

2️⃣ Luton Update

Luton are now winless in nine Premier League matches, since the Hatters 4-0 thrashing of Brighton at Kenilworth Road on January 30th. This sequence has seen them incur some incredibly damaging defeats, including a 4-3 loss at Bournemouth (after they’d led 3-0 at half-time) and a 3-1 reversal at home to Sheffield United. This run has left Luton in the relegation zone on goal difference, despite the decision to deduct rivals Nottingham Forest four points for profit and sustainability rule breaches. With as many as 13 players potentially unavailable for the trip to North London, too, the Hatters will have to fight more tenaciously than ever to preserve their top-flight status.

Last 5 Games
Tottenham 2
Luton 1
30.03.24
Premier League
Luton 1
Nottm Forest 1
16.03.24
Premier League
Bournemouth 4
Luton 3
13.03.24
Premier League
Crystal Palace1
Luton 1
09.03.24
Premier League
Luton 2
Aston Villa3
02.03.24
Premier League

Three more players reported knocks in the recent defeat at Spurs, namely Reece Burke, Tahith Chong and influential wing-back Alfie Doughty. They’ll be assessed ahead of kick-off against Arsenal. Jacob Brown is definitely out, having undergone knee surgery, while the trip to the Emirates may come a little too soon for defender Gabriel Osho (knee). Chiedozie Ogbene (thigh), Mads Anderson (calf), Dan Potts (thigh), Albert Sambi Lokonga (hamstring) and Elijah Adebayo (hamstring) are all confirmed absentees, while Marvelous Nakamba (knee) isn’t expected to return until May. Both Amari'i Bell (hamstring) and skipper Thomas Lockyer (chest) have been ruled out for the season.

Player Reason
Reece Burke Knock
Tahith Chong Knock
Alfie Doughty Knock
Jacob Brown Knee Surgery
Gabriel Osho Knee Injury
Chiedozie Ogbene Thigh Injury
Mads Anderson Calf Injury
Dan Potts Thigh Injury
Albert Sambi Lokonga Hamstring Injury
Elijah Adebayo Hamstring Injury
Marvelous Nakamba Knee Injury
Amari'i Bell Hamstring Injury
Thomas Lockyer Chest Injury

👕 Arsenal vs Luton Town - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-3-3
Luton Town
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya T. Kaminski Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White D. Hashioka Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba T. Mengi Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel R. Burke Centre Back
Left Back P. Kiwior I. Kaboré Left Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard L. Berry Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice R. Barkley Midfielder
Midfielder K. Havertz P. Ruddock Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka A. Townsend Wide Forward
Striker G. Jesus C. Woodrow Striker
Wide Forward G. Martinelli C. Morris Wide Forward

Arsenal to win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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