Arsenal vs Liverpool Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentPremier League
Timetable16:30 GMT, 4th Feb 24
PredictionLiverpool to Win!
Odds2.90
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Liverpool to Win!
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Odds : 2.90
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Odds : 2.90
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Odds : 3.00
Bet €100 and win €300 if Liverpool win.
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This is a huge match in the context of the Premier League title race, with Liverpool and Arsenal occupying the top two places in the EPL table at the time of writing. They’ve also done battle twice in the last five weeks, with the sides sharing the points in a 1-1 draw at Anfield in December, before Liverpool knocked the Gunners out of the FA Cup at the beginning of the year. As you can imagine, Betinireland’s best betting sites are split on which side will prevail here, but Arsenal will hope that home advantage will prove given that they’ve lost just once at the Emirates in 2023/24.

🏆 Arsenal vs Liverpool EPL Prediction

Liverpool have won 95 of their 241 matches against Arsenal since their first meeting in October 1893. More recently, the Reds have been defeated just once in nine matches against their historic rivals, since the Gunners edged a penalty shootout in a League Cup fourth-round game in October 2020.

The Gunners also continue to struggle for fluency this season, while their tally of 45 big chances created this season bettered by Newcastle, Liverpool, Manchester City, Spurs and Aston Villa. Their average of 29.95 shot-creating actions per 90 is also lower than Liverpool’s (32.90), with Arsenal clearly missing Granit Xhaka’s progressive passing from midfield.

The Reds have also been at their counter-pressing best so far this season, with only Everton having produced more than Liverpool’s 1172 ball recoveries in 2023/24. They’ve also completed 61 tackles in the attacking third, so they’ll look to press Arsenal high and create chances through rapid attacking transitions.

Of course, Arsenal also created plenty of chances in the recent FA Cup tie against the Reds, once again through aggressive counter-pressing. However, Liverpool have far greater options in attack (even in the absence of Salah), while Luiz Diaz could prove key against a Gunners side that often lacks defensive width.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 1 – 2 Liverpool ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Liverpool EPL Match Odds

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All the sportsbooks featured in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews will offer an exceptional range of Arsenal vs Liverpool betting markets. These include the match winner and BTTS, along with the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game. Here’s a more detailed analysis of each one!

🏅 Arsenal vs Liverpool: Match Winner

You can back Arsenal to beat Liverpool at an average price of 2.00, which implies a 50.00% probability of a home win. As for the Reds, they’re priced at around 3.20 to prevail, suggesting that they have a 31.25% chance of winning. So, the pre-game odds clearly make the Gunners favourites, but this may simply create additional value when backing Liverpool to triumph.

Team
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Arsenal to Win2.152.152.282.252.22
Liverpool to Win2.902.902.903.002.89
Draw3.453.453.603.503.50

⚽ Arsenal vs Liverpool: Both Teams To Score

While both teams have found the net in 55% of Arsenal’s home matches this season, the Gunners have only prevailed in 36% of these games. A similar trend applies to the Reds on the road, with both sides scoring in 73% of Liverpool’s away games and Jurgen Klopp’s side winning just 27% of these encounters.

Yes/No
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Yes1.541.541.501.521.52
No2.212.212.354.252.36

🥅 Arsenal vs Liverpool: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 59% of their Premier League matches this season, while this has occurred in 73% of their home games. Interestingly, 62% of Liverpool’s league matches have yielded more than 2.5 goals in 2023/24, although this figure drops to 55% when the Reds venture away from Anfield.

Under/Over
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Over 2.5 Goals1.651.651.661.651.63
Under 2.5 Goals2.132.132.162.202.13

✔️ Arsenal vs Liverpool - Betting Tips

Regardless of whether you intend to wager your hard-earned cash or any free bets that you have on your sportsbook account, you may find it hard to pick a winner in the clash between Arsenal and Liverpool. So, I’ve prepared some expert football betting tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Liverpool to Win and Both Teams to Score: Liverpool have only lost once in their last nine matches against the Gunners while recording just a single defeat in open play in 12 head-to-head encounters since the summer of 2020. Klopp’s side have also only lost one of their previous 32 Premier League matches, since a 4-1 thumping at Manchester City on April 1st, 2023. However, these sides also adopt high defensive lines and leave space in the wide areas, so there’s value in backing a Liverpool win and both teams to score at a price of 5.25 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Liverpool in the Draw No Bet: Despite the odds favouring an Arsenal win, Liverpool’s form, pedigree and recent head-to-head record against the Gunners affords them an excellent chance of victory. However, the odds also imply a 27.77% probability of the game ending in a draw, while the two sides tied 1-1 at Anfield as recently as February. So, consider backing Liverpool with a ‘Draw No Bet’ wager at a price of 2.10 with Betway, as this provides some insurance and will refund your stake if the game ends in a stalemate.
  • Tip 3: Back Luis Diaz as an Anytime Goalscorer: Arsenal regularly play with at least one inverted full-back, which can create a lack of defensive width in transition. Liverpool exploited this through Darwin Nunez and Luis Diaz in the 2-0 FA Cup win at the Emirates, with the latter scoring the second goal in stoppage time. Interestingly, Diaz has also provided two goal contributions in four matches against the Gunners, so get on him as an anytime scorer at a price of 4.33 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal have now won two games in a row in the Premier League, after a run of just one win in five outings over the festive period. However, they’re still struggling to convert possession (they’ve averaged 60.9% possession per 90 minutes this season) into chances, while they lack the potent and varied goal threat that they had last season. Bukayo Saka is their leading EPL scorer with seven goals in 21 appearances, but Gabriel Jesus has just four (from an xG value of 5.4) and Gabriel Martinelli has also struggled with his end product. This will have to change against a Liverpool side that always gives the opposition chances.

Last 5 Games
Nottingham Forest 1
Arsenal 2
30.01.24
Premier League
Arsenal 5
Crystal Palace 0
20.01.24
Premier League
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 2
07.01.24
FA Cup
Fulham 2
Arsenal 1
31.12.23
Premier League
Arsenal 0
West Ham 2
28.12.23
Premier League

Arsenal are largely at full strength for the visit of Liverpool, although Jurrien Timber remains a long-term absentee with a knee injury. Thomas Partey is also sidelined with a thigh injury, while this game may have come a little too soon for Fabio Viera (groin). Mohamed Elneny may be available after returning from AFCON duty, although Takehiro Tomiyasu remains away with Japan in the AFC Asia Cup.

PlayerReason
Jurrien Timber Knee Injury
Thomas Partey Thigh Injury
Fabio Viera Groin Injury
Takehiro Tomiyasu International Duty

2️⃣ Liverpool Update

Liverpool’s sole EPL defeat this season came against Spurs, after they’d played for more than 30 minutes with nine men and conceded a 95th-minute own goal. As I’ve touched on, they’ve lost just once in their last 32 Premier League encounters too, so they remain enduringly difficult to beat despite their occasional lapses in defence. The news of Jurgen Klopp’s summer departure may also galvanise the Reds even more, while forwards Luis Diaz, Diogo Jota and Darwin Nunez have all stepped up in the absence of the talismanic Mo Salah.

Last 5 Games
Liverpool 5
Norwich 2
28.01.24
FA Cup
Fulham 1
Liverpool 1
24.01.24
EFL Cup
Bournemouth 0
Liverpool 4
21.01.24
Premier League
Liverpool 2
Fulham 1
10.01.24
EFL Cup
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 2
07.01.24
FA Cup

Both Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson are back in training, which has come as a huge boost to Liverpool. However, the absence of Salah is a setback, with the prolific forward having injured his hamstring while on international duty at the African Cup of Nations. Wataru Endo is still away with Japan at the AFC Asia Cup too, while the Arsenal game will come too soon for Konstantinos Tsimikas (shoulder). Thiago (groin) and Stefan Bajcetic (unknown) are out until the end of February, while Joel Matip is a long-term absentee having ruptured his ACL.

PlayerReason
Mohamed Salah Hamstring Injury
Wataru Endo International Duty
Konstantinos Tsimikas Shoulder Injury
Thiago Groin Injury
Stefan Bajcetic Unknown Injury
Joel Matip Ruptured ACL

👕 Arsenal v Liverpool - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
4-2-3-1
Liverpool
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper D. Raya Alisson Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White T. Alexander-Arnold Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba I. Konate Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel V. van Dijk Centre Back
Left Back O. Zinchenko A. Robertson Left Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard D. Szoboszlai Midfielder
Midfielder Jorginho A. Mac Allister Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice C. Jones Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka L. Diaz Wide Forward
Striker G. Jesus D. Jota Striker
Wide Forward G. Martinelli D. Nunez Wide Forward

Liverpool to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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