Arsenal vs Brentford Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Arsenal vs Brentford EPL Prediction

These two teams contested an incredibly close match at the Gtech Community Stadium in November, with Kai Havertz securing a 1-0 win for the Gunners with an 88th-minute header. These two teams had respective xG values of 1.66 and 1.83 that day, while the Bees were ultimately unfortunate not to secure a point.

However, Brentford have since won just three of 14 Premier League matches, and only one on the road at Wolves on February 10th. At the heart of their issues is a failure to take their chances, with the Bees having underperformed their xG value of 43.0 by -5.8 goals. They’ve also struggled defensively, conceding 50 goals in total this season and winning just 45.40% of their tackles.

They’ve also conceded two or more goals in nine of their previous 11 EPL matches, so a visit to face free-scoring Arsenal at the Emirates has arguably come at the worst possible time. The Gunners now average 4.19 goal-creating actions per 90 in the Premier League (a league high!), while the 31 goals that they’ve scored in their last seven matches have come from an xG of just 19.03.

So, it’s hard to look past a Gunners win here or count against Mikel Arteta’s side creating ample chances in front of goal. However, Brentford are always competitive and tenacious in their approach and I expect them to maintain a respectable scoreline while also finding the back of the net themselves in North London.

💯 Arsenal vs Brentford EPL Match Odds

This match unlocks a number of enticing football betting markets, including the match winner or result, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored in the game.

🏅 Arsenal vs Brentford: Match Winner

As I’ve touched on, Arsenal are the overwhelming and justifiable favourites to defeat Brentford at the Emirates, with their average price of 1.20 implying an 83.33% probability of a home win. As for the Bees, they can be backed at around 11.00 to shock the Gunners in North London, suggesting that they have just a 9.09% chance of winning.

Team
Arsenal to Win	1.20	1.25	1.18	1.22	1.20
Brentford to Win	12.00	10.00	11.30	12.00	11.00
Draw	6.50	6.00	6.45	6.50	7.00

⚽ Arsenal vs Brentford: Both Teams To Score

Both teams have found the net in 48% of Arsenal’s league games this season, but this percentage increases to 62% at the Emirates. The Gunners have kept just four clean sheets at home, while drawing a single blank against West Ham on December 28th. As for the Bees, they have found the net in 46% of their away games in the EPL but have also failed to score on four occasions while keeping three clean sheets on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.91	1.95	1.97	1.88	1.91
No	1.80	1.83	1.72	1.85	1.80

🥅 Arsenal vs Brentford: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Arsenal’s 13 EPL home matches in 2023/24 have produced 46 goals in total at a rate of 3.53 per 90 games (the Gunners have scored 34 of these goals). Brentford have also contested 13 matches on the road, with these yielding 36 goals at a rate of 2.76 per 90 minutes. The Bees have conceded 21 goals away from home so far, at a rate of 1.61 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.40	1.43	1.40	1.44	1.40
Under 2.5 Goals	2.70	2.70	2.66	2.60	2.75

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Arsenal’s first-half demolition of Sheffield United was arguably the most one-sided 45 minutes of football in Premier League history, as Arsenal struck five times without reply, attempted 16 shots on goal (compared to one) and boasted nearly 80% possession. This saw the Gunners rack up a seventh consecutive win in 2024, while Arteta’s in-form charges have taken 22 points from the previous 30 available to them in the EPL. Arsenal have scored 33 goals during this sequence (at a rate of 3.30 per 90) and conceded just eight times, while 10 different Gunners’ players have found the net across these 10 games.

Both Gabriel Jesus and Thomas Partey made their return from injury against Sheffield United, while Takehiro Tomiyasu (knock) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf injury) will also be assessed before the visit of Brentford. Bukayo Saka (illness) is also expected to be fit after being withdrawn at half time against the Blades, although Gabriel Martinelli could miss out after suffering a cut on his foot. Jurrien Timber (knee) remains some weeks away from contention despite recovering from an ACL injury, but Aaron Ramsdale will play as David Raya is ineligible to face his parent club.

2️⃣ Brentford Update

Ultimately, Brentford showcased immense fight and character in the second half against Chelsea last time out, scoring twice to eventually secure a 2-2 draw. This ended a run of three consecutive defeats for the Bees, but Brentford have still won just three of their previous 16 matches (both home and away) since November 4th. During their previous 10 games, they’ve taken just seven points from the 30 available to them, while shipping 26 goals at a rate of 2.60 per 90. Only Everton, Burnley and Sheffield United have collected fewer points during this period, and the Bees remain on the fringes of an unexpected relegation battle.

Ben Mee has now been ruled out for the season with an ankle injury, and he joins Josh Dasilva and Ric Henry (both knee) as a long-term absentee. Aaron Hickey (thigh) has also been ruled out until May, while young forward Kevin Schade isn’t expected to recover from a groin injury until late April. Centre-back Ethan Pinnock won’t travel to North London as he recovers from a foot injury, while Bryan Mbeumo (ankle) is on course for a comeback towards the end of March.

👕 Arsenal vs Brentford - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.