Real Sociedad vs PSG: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

real-sociedad-v-psg-prediction real-sociedad-v-psg-prediction
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 5th Mar 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.40
Bet €100 and win €340 if the match ends in a draw.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 3.40
Bet €100 and win €340 if the match ends in a draw.

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Odds : 3.30
Bet €100 and win €330 if the match ends in a draw.
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PSG ground out an excellent 2-0 first-leg win over Real Sociedad at the Parc des Princes, enabling them to put one foot into the last eight of the UEFA Champions League. They had to be patient against the resilient Spaniards, who were competitive and defensively resilient in the French capital despite not registering a single shot on target. However, Sociedad will have to take risks in the second leg if they’re to have a chance of progressing, and this could offer space for PSG to exploit in transition. Read on to see my prediction and analysis of the odds from the best betting sites.

🏆Real Sociedad vs PSG Prediction

The first leg clash in Paris was the first-ever competitive match between these two teams, although Luis Enrique’s side are veritable veterans in the Champions League from competing in their 12th successive UCL campaign. Conversely, Sociedad have only contested 107 matches in all European competitions since their formation in September 1909.

This iteration of PSG are also proving incredibly tough to beat, having lost two of their previous 27 matches in all competitions since a 3-2 defeat to Nice on September 15th. They’re also unbeaten in 19 games since their last defeat, which was administered by AC Milan at the San Siro during the group stages.

Sociedad’s form is at the other end of the spectrum, with the team having won just once in their previous eight matches since January 23rd. Four of these matches have ended in draws, however, while 15 of Sociedad’s 40 games in all competitions have also finished all square in 2023/24 (37.50%). This reflects the La Liga sides’ defensive resilience, with Sociedad having won an impressive 54.50% of their tackles in the UCL and made just a single error leading to an opponent’s shot on goal.

The issue for Sociedad will be retaining the ball, with PSG averaging 66.10% possession across their seven Champions League games so far. PSG’s ball-carrying abilities will also serve them well in transition, with the team having completed 222 progressive carries during the tournament (only Man City have made more). While I don’t see Sociedad winning here or progressing in the tie, I do think they’ll escape with a respectable draw.

My Prediction: 🏆 Real Sociedad 1 – 1 PSG ⚽

💯 Real Sociedad v PSG Match Odds

There are several betting markets available when wagering on the second leg clash between Real Sociedad and PSG, including the match winner and the team that will progress in the tie. You can also wager on BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in Spain, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Real Sociedad v PSG: Match Winner

Real Sociedad are priced at around 2.63 to defeat PSG, implying a 38.02% chance of a home win. They are the narrow favourites to prevail in the second leg, with PSG’s odds of 2.75 suggesting that they have a 36.36% of emerging victorious. Unsurprisingly, PSG are the overwhelming favourites to qualify for the quarterfinals at a price of 1.10.

betway-logo betway-logo
Real Sociedad to Win2.632.602.532.602.55
PSG to Win2.502.602.492.752.55

⚽ Real Sociedad v PSG: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in eight of Sociedad’s 17 home games in all competitions (47.00%), with the La Liga side keeping five clean sheets and failing to score on five occasions. As for PSG, both sides have found the net in 10 of their 16 away matches (62.50%), with the Parisians keeping six clean sheets in total. Clermont Foot are the only side to stop PSG from scoring on the road this season, during a 0-0 draw on September 30th.

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🥅 Real Sociedad v PSG: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

In 2023/24, Real Sociedad’s 17 matches at the Reale Arena have produced a total of 42 goals at a rate of 2.47 per 90. PSG’s 16 away matches have seen a little more action in the attacking third, with these encounters yielding 52 goals at a rate of 3.25 per game. So, the odds imply a slightly higher probability of this match producing under 2.5 goals during the 90 minutes.

betway-logo betway-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.871.911.891.911.91
Under 2.5 Goals1.831.801.751.821.80

✔️ Real Sociedad vs PSG - Betting Tips

I’m not sure that this encounter is a suitable candidate for matched betting, so you may need to find an alternative use for any free bets that you have on your account. Here are some betting tips to keep in mind.

  • Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The bookies are broadly split on the over/under market for this game, with both teams tough to beat and well organised in defence. Overall, there’s probably more value to be found in backing under 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes, especially when you consider PSG’s ability to dominate possession and the fact that Sociedad have only scored eight goals in their previous 10 home matches in all competitions. You can get on this market at a price of 1.83 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back the Draw: While the draw is statistically the least likely outcome in this match, an average price of 3.40 still implies a 29.41% chance of the score being level after 90 minutes. Remember, 15 of Sociedad’s 40 matches in all competitions this season have ended in draws, with the team struggling to score enough goals to secure decisive results. A draw would also be a good result for PSG given their hard-fought first-leg win, so consider backing this outcome at a price of 3.40 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score: Once again, the bookies are relatively split on the BTTS market ahead of the clash between Sociedad and PSG, although the odds imply a slightly higher probability of both sides scoring at the Reale Arena. There’s good reason for this too, with Sociedad scoring in 12 of their 17 home matches this season (71.00%) and PSG drawing just a single blank in 16 outings on the road. Get on both teams to score at a price of 1.78 with Betway.

1️⃣ Real Sociedad Update

Sociedad’s form has continued to worsen as the season has progressed, as while the team remains technically proficient and defensively well-organised, it has become burdened by a distinct lack of goals and cutting edge. In fact, they’ve only scored eight times in 10 home matches in all competitions, since a 1-0 win over Mallorca on October 21st. They’ve only won one of their previous eight matches too, while their tally of just four goals during this sequence is indicative of a team lacking confidence and fluency. The recent absence of top scorer Mikel Oyarzabal through injury has hardly helped matters, although he may be fit to start in San Sebastián.

Last 5 Games
Real Sociedad (4) 1
Mallorca (5) 1
Copa del Rey
Real Sociedad 1
Villareal 3
La Liga
Mallorca 1
Real Sociedad 2
La Liga
Real Sociedad 0
Champions League
Real Sociedad 0
Osasuna 1
La Liga

Oyarzabal made an appearance from the bench in the second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final against Mallorca, which ultimately saw Sociedad eliminated on penalties. However, he’ll face a late fitness test before the visit of PSG. Fellow forward Carlos Fernandez will definitely miss out with a knee injury, while defender Aritz Elustonodo (muscle injury) is also a significant doubt. Álvaro Odriozola (knee) is out until April, while Aihen Munoz has seen his season ended prematurely by an ACL injury. However, Martin Merquelanz could be fit to start as he continues his recovery from a knee complaint.

Player Reason
Mikel Oyarzabal Muscle Contusion
Martin Merquelanz Knee Injury
Álvaro Odriozola Knee Injury
Aritz Elustondo Muscle Injury
Aihen Muñoz Cruciate Ligament Tear
Carlos Fernandez Knee Injury

2️⃣ PSG Update

PSG are unbeaten in 2024 and their last 19 matches overall, while they’ve only lost two of their previous 27 games since Nice prevailed 3-2 at the Parc des Princes back on September 15th. However, both of these defeats came on the road in the UCL, with Newcastle thumping the Parisians 4-1 in October and Milan recording a narrow 2-1 victory barely one month later. Doubt also remains about the participation of star striker and 32-goal top-scorer Kylian Mbappe, after he announced his intention to sign with Real Madrid in the summer. The good news, however, is that PSG boast plenty of depth and quality in attack whether Mbappe starts or not.

Last 5 Games
Rennes 1
Ligue 1
Nantes 0
Ligue 1
Real Sociedad 0
Champions League
LOSC Lille 1
Ligue 1
Brest 1
Coupe de France

Brazilian centre-back Marquinhos is in doubt ahead of the trip to Sociedad as he continues to struggle with a calf injury. Fellow defender Layvin Kurzawa may miss out with a back complaint, while this round of 16 second leg clash may also come a little too soon for Milan Škriniar (ankle injury). Reserve keeper Sergio Rico continues his rehabilitation following a serious head injury, while Presnel Kimpembe remains a long-term absentee following his Achilles tendon rupture.

Player Reason
Marquinhos Calf Injury
Layvin Kurzawa Back Injury
Sergio Rico Head Injury
Milan Skriniar Ankle Injury
Presnel Kimpembe Achilles Tendon Rupture

👕 Real Sociedad vs PSG- Potential Lineups

Pos. Real Sociedad
Goalkeeper A. Remiro G. Donnarumma Goalkeeper
Right Back H. Traore A. Hakimi Right Back
Centre Back I. Zubeldia D. Pereira Centre Back
Centre Back R. Le Normand L. Beraldo Centre Back
Left Back J. Galan L. Hernandez Left Back
Midfielder B. Mendez W. Zaïre-Emery Midfielder
Midfielder M. Zubimendi Vitinha Midfielder
Midfielder M. Merino F. Ruiz Midfielder
Wide Forward T. Kubo O. Dembele Wide Forward
Striker A. Silva K. Mbappe Striker
Wide Forward M. Oyarzabal B. Barcola Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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