Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich-->Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 8th May 24
PredictionReal Madrid to Win!
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Real Madrid to Win!
The best odds
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.88
Bet €100 and win €188 if Real Madrid win.

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Odds : 1.81
Bet €100 and win €181 if Real Madrid win.
Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 1.81
Bet €100 and win €181 if Real Madrid win.

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This heavyweight Champions League semi-final tie between Real Madrid and Bayern Munich is on a knife-edge after the first leg, with a late Vinicius Junior penalty helping Los Blancos to leave the Allianz Arena with a 2-2 draw. This affords the La Liga outfit a huge advantage in the tie, as Madrid are unbeaten at the Santiago Bernabéu this season and haven’t lost here in the UCL since April 12th, 2022. However, the Champions League remains Bayern’s only chance of silverware in 2023/24, while their manager Thomas Tuchel won the competition impressively with Chelsea in 2021. But can he deliver a coaching masterclass in the second leg, and how have Ireland’s best betting sites priced the potential match outcomes?

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich UCL Prediction

The 2-2 draw in the first leg extended Real Madrid’s unbeaten run against Bayern to eight Champions League matches, although it also highlighted the evenly matched nature of both sides. Although the Bavarians had more attempts on goal (14 to 10) and recorded 52% possession at the Allianz, Real Madrid produced a slightly higher xG of 2.03 and were a constant threat in transition.

Overall, Bayern have averaged 55.5% possession per 90 in this season’s UCL, compared to 52.4% for Real Madrid. While the Bavarians may see slightly more of the ball in Spain, however, this may suit Los Blancos, who have scored a tournament high six goals from counterattacks this season and boast one of the world’s deadliest transitional players in Vinicius Junior (who struck a brace during the first leg).

Then there’s Madrid's record at the Bernabéu, where Carlo Ancelotti’s side haven’t lost in 29 matches in all competitions since Villareal defeated them 3-2 on April 8th 2023. Conversely, Bayern have lost seven times on the road during the 2023/24 campaign, while their total tally of 10 defeats this season is the club’s highest since 2011/12.

Of course, Munich boast the tournament’s joint-top scorer Harry Kane, who has struck eight tournament goals from 30 shots and an xG of just 6.6. Despite this, however, Bayern have still underperformed their xG by -1.38 goals, with Los Blancos a little more efficient and composed in the attacking third. Make no mistake; all roads point to a Real win at the Bernabéu, although Munich will be competitive throughout and could well contribute to a high-scoring game.

My Prediction: ⚡ Real Madrid 3 – 2 Bayern Munich ⚡

💯 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Match Odds

When wagering on the second leg clash between Real Madrid and Bayern, you should note that all bets will be settled within 90 minutes. This applies to popular markets such as the match winner, BTTS and the over/under and how many goals will be scored in total. But how are each of these betting markets currently being priced?

🏅 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly given Madrid’s long unbeaten run at home, Los Blancos are the pre-game betting favourites and priced at around 1.81 to defeat Munich. These odds imply a 55.24% probability of a Real victory at the Bernabéu. As for Bayern, they can be backed at an average price of 3.80 in the win market, suggesting that they have just a 26.31% chance of beating their hosts. You can also bet on Real Madrid to win the tie overall at odds of 1.50, implying a 66.66% probability of them reaching the final.

Real Madrid to Win1.881.801.811.811.80
Bayern Munich to Win4.003.803.753.754.00

⚽ Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Real have contested 22 matches at home in the 2023/24 season, with both teams finding the net on just 10 occasions (45%). Los Blancos have kept 10 clean sheets at the Bernabéu and failed to score just once. Both teams have scored in 16 of Bayern’s 23 matches in all competitions (70%). Bayern have drawn two blanks on the road and kept five clean sheets, although they haven’t stopped their opponents from scoring on their travels for 11 matches.


🥅 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Real Madrid’s 22 home matches have also yielded 70 goals at a rate of 3.18 per game. Los Blancos have scored 55 of these goals, at an impressive average of exactly 2.50 per 90 minutes. Bayern’s 23 away contests have seen even more action in the attacking third, producing 80 goals in total at a rate of 3.82 per 90. However, the Bavarians have been porous on the road and conceded 36 goals at an average of 1.56 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.551.601.531.531.60
Under 2.5 Goals2.302.302.322.322.25

✔️ Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich - Betting Tips

There are some intriguingly priced markets associated with the clash between Real and Bayern, as two of the Champions League’s heaviest hitters go toe-to-toe in Madrid. But how can you identify the best value markets or successfully leverage combination betting to your advantage? Here are some tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 3.5 Goals to be Scored: Although most over/under betting activity takes place around the 2.5 goals line in the Champions League, Real alone have scored an average of 2.5 goals per 90 minutes at the Bernabéu this season. Bayern’s defence is also vulnerable on the road, with Tuchel’s men having failed to keep a clean sheet away from home since a 1-0 win over Manchester United on December 12th. The last eight meetings between these two teams have also produced 28 goals at a rate of 3.5 per 90, so we’d recommend backing over 3.5 goals being scored here at a price of 2.31 with Betiton Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back Real Madrid to win and Both Teams to Score: Madrid haven’t lost at home in any competition since April 2023, so they’re justifiability odds-on favourites to win the second leg. The pre-game odds also imply a 67% probability of both teams scoring at the Bernabéu, with this outcome occurring in 70% of Bayern’s away matches this season. Although Madrid have kept 10 clean sheets at home this season, they’ve conceded in each of their last three UCL matches in front of their own fans. So, get on Madrid to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.30 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Harry Kane as an Anytime Goalscorer: I’ve already touched on Harry Kane’s record in this season’s Champions League, with his eight-goal haul including Bayern’s second during the first leg. He’s also averaging 0.45 goals-per-shot in the tournament and has recorded two-goal involvements in three career appearances against Los Blancos. As Bayern’s designated penalty taker, he remains the team’s most potent and reliable goal threat, so consider backing Kane as an anytime scorer at the competitive price of 2.70 with LegendPlay Sports. This is a great use of any free bets that you may have.

1️⃣ Real Madrid Update

Real Madrid sealed the La Liga title at the weekend, following Barcelona’s 4-2 defeat to Girona at the Estadi Montilivi. Their sights are now set on completing a coveted league and Champions League double, which would be just a reward for a team that has lost just two of the 49 matches they’ve contested in all competitions this season. City rivals Atletico are the only side to defeat Los Blancos in 2023/24, with Real’s 4-2 loss at the Cívitas Metropolitano in the Copa del Rey their sole reversal in 42 matches since September 24th. What’s more, Real Madrid haven’t lost at home in the UCL for more than two years since a 3-2 defeat to Chelsea in April 2022.

Last 5 Games
Real Madrid 3
Cadiz 0
La Liga
Bayern 2
Real Madrid 2
UEFA Champions League
Real Sociedad 0
Real Madrid 1
La Liga
Real Madrid 3
Barcelona 2
La Liga
Manchester City 1
Real Madrid 1
UEFA Champions League

Real Madrid are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Munich, with Éder Militão and Thibaut Courtois having both recently returned from long-term injuries. Dani Carvajal is also available again after serving a one-game ban. So, Real’s only absentee remains centre back David Alaba, who continues to recover from a cruciate ligament tear.

David Alaba Cruciate Ligament Tear

2️⃣ Bayern Update

Bayern’s season has been largely disappointing, with Leverkusen ending their domestic dominance and the side having lost 10 matches in a single campaign for the first time since 2011/12. They’ve also conceded a worrying 57 goals in 46 matches in all competitions this season, including 36 in just 23 away games at a rate of 1.56 per 90 minutes. Seven of their 10 defeats have also come on the road, including a chastening 3-1 defeat to VfB Stuttgart at the weekend. The good news for Bayern is that they’ve scored 115 goals in all competitions this season, with the aforementioned Harry Kane contributing 44 of these in just 44 appearances.

Last 5 Games
VfB Stuttgart 3
Bayern 1
Bayern 2
Real Madrid 2
UEFA Champions League
Bayern 2
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
Union Berlin 1
Bayern Munich 5
Bayern Munich 1
Arsenal 0
UEFA Champions League

English centre back Eric Dier (head injury) is a doubt for the trip to Madrid, while fellow defender Matthijs de Ligt will continue to be assessed as he struggles with a knee injury. Kingsley Coman (groin) and Sacha Boey (hip) have definitely been ruled out of the second leg, and they’ll join Raphael Guerreiro (ligament) on the sidelines. Otherwise, Bouna Sarr (ACL) and young centre back Tarek Buchmann (hamstring) have been ruled out for the season and won’t return until 2024/25.

Player Reason
Eric Dier Head injury
Matthijs de Ligt Knee injury
Kingsley Coman Groin injury
Raphael Guerreiro Ligament Injury
Sacha Boey Hip Injury
Tarek Buchmann Muscle Injury
Bouna Sarr ACL Injury

👕 Real Madrid vs Bayern - Potential Lineups

Pos. Real Madrid
Goalkeeper A. Lunin M. Neuer Goalkeeper
Right Back D. Carvajal J. Kimmich Right Back
Centre Back Éder Militão Kim Min-jae Centre Back
Centre Back A. Rudiger D. Upamecano Centre Back
Left Back F. Mendy A. Davies Left Back
Midfielder F. Valverde L. Goretzka Midfielder
Midfielder A. Tchouaméni K. Laimer Midfielder
Midfielder T. Kroos T. Muller Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder J. Bellingham L. Sane Wide Forward
Striker Rodrygo H. Kane Striker
Striker Vinicius Junior J. Musiala Wide Forward

Real Madrid to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.


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