Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich UCL Prediction

The 2-2 draw in the first leg extended Real Madrid’s unbeaten run against Bayern to eight Champions League matches, although it also highlighted the evenly matched nature of both sides. Although the Bavarians had more attempts on goal (14 to 10) and recorded 52% possession at the Allianz, Real Madrid produced a slightly higher xG of 2.03 and were a constant threat in transition.

Overall, Bayern have averaged 55.5% possession per 90 in this season’s UCL, compared to 52.4% for Real Madrid. While the Bavarians may see slightly more of the ball in Spain, however, this may suit Los Blancos, who have scored a tournament high six goals from counterattacks this season and boast one of the world’s deadliest transitional players in Vinicius Junior (who struck a brace during the first leg).

Then there’s Madrid's record at the Bernabéu, where Carlo Ancelotti’s side haven’t lost in 29 matches in all competitions since Villareal defeated them 3-2 on April 8th 2023. Conversely, Bayern have lost seven times on the road during the 2023/24 campaign, while their total tally of 10 defeats this season is the club’s highest since 2011/12.

Of course, Munich boast the tournament’s joint-top scorer Harry Kane, who has struck eight tournament goals from 30 shots and an xG of just 6.6. Despite this, however, Bayern have still underperformed their xG by -1.38 goals, with Los Blancos a little more efficient and composed in the attacking third. Make no mistake; all roads point to a Real win at the Bernabéu, although Munich will be competitive throughout and could well contribute to a high-scoring game.

💯 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich Match Odds

When wagering on the second leg clash between Real Madrid and Bayern, you should note that all bets will be settled within 90 minutes. This applies to popular markets such as the match winner, BTTS and the over/under and how many goals will be scored in total. But how are each of these betting markets currently being priced?

🏅 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Match Winner

Unsurprisingly given Madrid’s long unbeaten run at home, Los Blancos are the pre-game betting favourites and priced at around 1.81 to defeat Munich. These odds imply a 55.24% probability of a Real victory at the Bernabéu. As for Bayern, they can be backed at an average price of 3.80 in the win market, suggesting that they have just a 26.31% chance of beating their hosts. You can also bet on Real Madrid to win the tie overall at odds of 1.50, implying a 66.66% probability of them reaching the final.

Team
Real Madrid to Win	1.88	1.80	1.81	1.81	1.80
Bayern Munich to Win	4.00	3.80	3.75	3.75	4.00
Draw	3.60	3.75	3.80	3.80	3.75

⚽ Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Real have contested 22 matches at home in the 2023/24 season, with both teams finding the net on just 10 occasions (45%). Los Blancos have kept 10 clean sheets at the Bernabéu and failed to score just once. Both teams have scored in 16 of Bayern’s 23 matches in all competitions (70%). Bayern have drawn two blanks on the road and kept five clean sheets, although they haven’t stopped their opponents from scoring on their travels for 11 matches.

Yes/No
Yes	1.50	1.55	1.49	1.50	1.50
No	2.40	2.40	2.45	2.40	2.38

🥅 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Real Madrid’s 22 home matches have also yielded 70 goals at a rate of 3.18 per game. Los Blancos have scored 55 of these goals, at an impressive average of exactly 2.50 per 90 minutes. Bayern’s 23 away contests have seen even more action in the attacking third, producing 80 goals in total at a rate of 3.82 per 90. However, the Bavarians have been porous on the road and conceded 36 goals at an average of 1.56 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.55	1.60	1.53	1.53	1.60
Under 2.5 Goals	2.30	2.30	2.32	2.32	2.25

1️⃣ Real Madrid Update

Real Madrid sealed the La Liga title at the weekend, following Barcelona’s 4-2 defeat to Girona at the Estadi Montilivi. Their sights are now set on completing a coveted league and Champions League double, which would be just a reward for a team that has lost just two of the 49 matches they’ve contested in all competitions this season. City rivals Atletico are the only side to defeat Los Blancos in 2023/24, with Real’s 4-2 loss at the Cívitas Metropolitano in the Copa del Rey their sole reversal in 42 matches since September 24th. What’s more, Real Madrid haven’t lost at home in the UCL for more than two years since a 3-2 defeat to Chelsea in April 2022.

Real Madrid are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Munich, with Éder Militão and Thibaut Courtois having both recently returned from long-term injuries. Dani Carvajal is also available again after serving a one-game ban. So, Real’s only absentee remains centre back David Alaba, who continues to recover from a cruciate ligament tear.

2️⃣ Bayern Update

Bayern’s season has been largely disappointing, with Leverkusen ending their domestic dominance and the side having lost 10 matches in a single campaign for the first time since 2011/12. They’ve also conceded a worrying 57 goals in 46 matches in all competitions this season, including 36 in just 23 away games at a rate of 1.56 per 90 minutes. Seven of their 10 defeats have also come on the road, including a chastening 3-1 defeat to VfB Stuttgart at the weekend. The good news for Bayern is that they’ve scored 115 goals in all competitions this season, with the aforementioned Harry Kane contributing 44 of these in just 44 appearances.

English centre back Eric Dier (head injury) is a doubt for the trip to Madrid, while fellow defender Matthijs de Ligt will continue to be assessed as he struggles with a knee injury. Kingsley Coman (groin) and Sacha Boey (hip) have definitely been ruled out of the second leg, and they’ll join Raphael Guerreiro (ligament) on the sidelines. Otherwise, Bouna Sarr (ACL) and young centre back Tarek Buchmann (hamstring) have been ruled out for the season and won’t return until 2024/25.

👕 Real Madrid vs Bayern - Potential Lineups