PSG vs Dortmund-->PSG vs Dortmund: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

psg-v-dortmund-logo psg-v-dortmund-logo
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 7th May 24
PredictionPSG To Win!
OddsCote @1.48
BookmakerRoyalistplay Sports
The best odds
Bet €100 and win €148 if PSG win.
Odds : 1.47
Bet €100 and win €147 if PSG win.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.47
Bet €100 and win €147 if PSG win.
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The Champions League semi-final tie between PSG and Borussia Dortmund remains evenly poised after the first leg, with the Bundesliga outfit holding a slender one-goal lead courtesy of a thunderous strike by Niclas Füllkrug. However, PSG will feel confident that they can overturn this deficit at the Parc des Princes, where Luis Enrique’s team have only lost twice at home in all competitions this season. They’ve only been defeated twice in their previous 33 games since November 7th too, including their loss at the Westfalenstadion. But which side will prevail in Paris, and who will progress in the tie overall?

🏆 PSG vs Dortmund Prediction

Dortmund benefitted from a fast start at the Westfalenstadion, with Füllkrug’s first-half strike ultimately proving decisive. However, PSG assumed control of proceedings in the second half and boasted a 57% possession share overall, while accumulating a slightly higher xG of 1.58 (compared to 1.42 for the hosts). However, both teams created four big chances during the 90 minutes.

Clearly, there’s very little to choose between these two sides, but it should be noted that PSG registered 14 attempts during the first leg. This is their most without scoring in a single Champions League game since the second leg of their 2020/21 semi-final against Manchester City, and I expect Luis Enrique’s to be far more potent in front of their home fans (where they’ve scored 60 goals in 25 matches in 2023/24).

The Parisians should also see more of the ball at the Parc des Princes, as they average 63.8% possession per 90 minutes in the Champions League. This will compel Dortmund to defend in a relatively low block at times and counter at pace, but this should suit a team that has won 135 of its 233 tackles this season (57.9%) and attempted 134 tackles in the defensive third alone (a tournament high).

If PSG do dominate possession and territory, it’s hard to see star forward and joint UCL top scorer Kylian Mbappe not having his say. He has scored in six of PSG’s 11 Champions League matches this season, while contributing eight goals in total from an xG of just 7.5. He certainly has the potential to make the difference in what’s sure to be a cat-and-mouse game in the French capital, and I’m tipping PSG to win narrowly in 90 minutes before edging the tie after extra-time.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSG 2 - 1 Dortmund⚽

💯 PSG vs Dortmund Match Odds

If you browse Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll find a huge array of markets ahead of the clash between PSG and Dortmund. While betting on the match winner within 90 minutes remains the most popular market, you can also back both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the game. But how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 PSG vs Dortmund: Match Winner

PSG are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Dortmund at the Parc des Princes, with their average pre-game odds of 1.44 implying a 69.44% probability of a home win. Conversely, Dortmund are priced at a distant 6.00 in the win market, so Edin Terzić’s side have just a 16.66% of prevailing during 90 minutes. Interestingly, PSG can be backed at around 1.75 to qualify for the final, implying a 57.14% probability of this outcome occurring.

Betiton-sports-logo Betiton-sports-logo
PSG to Win 1.44 1.48 1.47 1.40 1.47
Borussia Dortmund to Win 6.00 5.75 5.85 6.00 6.00
Draw 4.50 4.75 4.70 4.50 4.60

⚽ PSG vs Dortmund: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 16 of PSG’s 25 matches at the Parc des Princes in all competitions this season (64%), with Enrique’s outfit keeping a total of nine clean sheets and failing to score only once. They’ve also scored in 24 consecutive home games since a 0-0 draw with Lorient on August 12th. As for Dortmund, 15 of their 23 away matches have seen both sides find the net in 2023/24 (65.21%). The ‘Black and Yellow’ have kept six clean sheets and drawn three blanks on the road.

Betiton-sports-logo Betiton-sports-logo
Yes 1.57 1.65 1.58 1.58 1.57
No 2.25 2.20 2.30 2.30 2.25

🥅 PSG vs Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 25 home matches contested by PSG have produced 80 goals in total, at a rate of 3.40 per game. The Parisians have scored 60 of these at an impressive average of 2.40 per 90 minutes. Dortmund’s 25 away matches have yielded 70 goals at the slightly lower rate of 3.04 per 90, while the Bundesliga side have conceded 27 times on the road at an average of 1.17 per game.

Betiton-sports-logo Betiton-sports-logo
Over 2.5 Goals 1.44 1.48 1.46 1.46 1.44
Under 2.5 Goals 2.60 2.60 2.54 2.54 2.50

✔️ PSG vs Dortmund - Betting Tips

The bets that you place on this second leg clash will only apply during 90 minutes, so backing PSG to win the match doesn’t mean that you’re picking them to qualify for the final. It’s also important that you consider the full range of betting markets available, while leveraging combination wagers to create value wherever possible. Here are some tips and insights to keep in mind.

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: Although PSG have kept a total of nine clean sheets at the Parc des Princes this season, both sides have found the net here in seven of their previous eight matches since February 14th. Both teams have scored in more than 65% of Dortmund’s away games in all competitions through 2023/24 too, while the Bundesliga side have scored in four of their five ULC encounters on the road. Given that PSG are also behind in the tie and may have to chase the game aggressively at some point, there’s genuine value in backing both teams to score at a price of 1.65 with Royalist Play.
  • Tip 2: Back Jadon Sancho to Score or Assist: Jadon Sancho has contributed three goals and two assists since his return to Dortmund on loan, while he stole the show in the first leg at the Westfalenstadion. His total of 12 completed dribbles against PSG was more than he produced in 58 Manchester United matches combined, and the most of any player in the competition since Lionel Messi (16) for Barcelona vs Manchester United in April 2008. He consistently had the better of PSG left back Nuno Mendes in Germany, so get on Sancho to score or assist in the second leg at the competitive price of 3.60 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back PSG to Win with Over 2.5 Goals Scored: If you want to leverage one of your available free bets, you many want to consider combination wagering. For example, PSG are the odds-on favourite to beat Dortmund in the second leg, while the odds also imply a 69.44% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. Remember, PSG’s 25 home games this season have seen an average of 3.40 goals scored, with the Parisians particularly prolific in front of their own fans. So, get on PSG to win with over 2.5 goals scored at a price of 1.95 with Mr Mega Sports.

1️⃣ PSG Update

The Parisians have been typically strong at home this season, losing only twice in 25 matches at the Parc des Princes in all competitions. Barcelona inflicted PSG’s only home defeat in the Champions League this term, and this remans their sole loss in 22 outings in front of their own fans since Nice prevailed 3-2 on September 15th. In addition to the aforementioned Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele has also been central to PSG’s impressive offensive play this season, as he averages 4.92 shot-creating actions per 90 and has contributed two assists in the UCL. Overall, he has produced 14 assists in just 39 appearances for PSG in 2023/24.

Last 5 Games
Dortmund 1 PSG 0 01.05.24 UEFA Champions League
PSG 3 Le Havre 3 27.04.24 Ligue 1
Lorient 1 PSG 4 24.04.24 Ligue 1
PSG 4 Lyon 1 21.04.24 Ligue 1
Barcelona 1 PSG 4 16.04.24 UEFA Champions League

Lucas Hernandez limped off during the first half of last week’s match against Dortmund and has subsequently been ruled out of contention with an ACL injury. Like Sergio Rico (head injury), he won’t feature again for PSG this season. The second leg will also come a little too soon for Layvin Kurzawa (back) and Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon), who are expected to return to the first-team fold in mid-May.

Player Reason
Lucas Hernandez ACL Injury
Layvin Kurzawa Back Injury
Sergio Rico Head Injury
Presnel Kimpembe Achilles Tendon Injury

2️⃣ Dortmund Update

While Dortmund may be struggling in fifth place in the Bundesliga, they’ve only lost four of the 20 matches they’ve contested in all competitions since the turn of the year. Just two of these defeats have come on the road too, including a 2-1 reversal at Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal. They remain among the most competitive and hardest running teams in the Champions League, having completed 593 ball recoveries (no side has registered more) and won 56.3% of their aerial duels. Because of this and their obvious threat in transition, they’ll prove a tough nut for PSG to crack in the French capital.

Last 5 Games
Dortmund 5 Augsburg 1 04.05.24 Bundesliga
Dortmund 1 PSG 0 01.05.24 UEFA Champions League
RB Leipzig 4 Dortmund 1 27.04.24 Bundesliga
Dortmund 1 Bayer Leverkusen 1 21.04.24 Bundesliga
Dortmund 4 Atletico Madrid 2 16.04.24 UEFA Champions League

Karim Adeyemi (knock) is a doubt for Dortmund ahead of the second leg in Paris, and will continue to be assessed prior to kick-off. However, Julien Duranville (muscle) has been ruled out and won’t make his return until the middle of May. Both Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament injury) and Abdoulaye Kamara (muscle) remain sidelined and may not play again in 2023/24, but Sebastien Haller has recovered from an ankle injury and could play a part in the second leg.

👕 PSG vs Dortmund Potential Lineups

Pos. PSG
Goalkeeper G. Donnarumma G. Kobel Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Hakimi J. Ryerson Right Back
Centre Back Marquinhos M. Hummels Centre Back
Centre Back Lopes Beraldo N. Schlotterbeck Centre Back
Left Back N. Mendes I. Maatsen Left Back
Midfielder W. Zaire-Emery E. Can Midfielder
Midfielder Vitinha M. Sabitzer Midfielder
Midfielder F. Ruiz F. Nmecha Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Dembele J. Sancho Wide Forward
Striker K. Mbappe N. Füllkrug Striker
Wide Forward B. Barcola D. Malen Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.


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