PSG vs Dortmund-->PSG vs Dortmund: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 PSG vs Dortmund Prediction

Dortmund benefitted from a fast start at the Westfalenstadion, with Füllkrug’s first-half strike ultimately proving decisive. However, PSG assumed control of proceedings in the second half and boasted a 57% possession share overall, while accumulating a slightly higher xG of 1.58 (compared to 1.42 for the hosts). However, both teams created four big chances during the 90 minutes.

Clearly, there’s very little to choose between these two sides, but it should be noted that PSG registered 14 attempts during the first leg. This is their most without scoring in a single Champions League game since the second leg of their 2020/21 semi-final against Manchester City, and I expect Luis Enrique’s to be far more potent in front of their home fans (where they’ve scored 60 goals in 25 matches in 2023/24).

The Parisians should also see more of the ball at the Parc des Princes, as they average 63.8% possession per 90 minutes in the Champions League. This will compel Dortmund to defend in a relatively low block at times and counter at pace, but this should suit a team that has won 135 of its 233 tackles this season (57.9%) and attempted 134 tackles in the defensive third alone (a tournament high).

If PSG do dominate possession and territory, it’s hard to see star forward and joint UCL top scorer Kylian Mbappe not having his say. He has scored in six of PSG’s 11 Champions League matches this season, while contributing eight goals in total from an xG of just 7.5. He certainly has the potential to make the difference in what’s sure to be a cat-and-mouse game in the French capital, and I’m tipping PSG to win narrowly in 90 minutes before edging the tie after extra-time.

💯 PSG vs Dortmund Match Odds

If you browse Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll find a huge array of markets ahead of the clash between PSG and Dortmund. While betting on the match winner within 90 minutes remains the most popular market, you can also back both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the game. But how are each of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 PSG vs Dortmund: Match Winner

PSG are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Dortmund at the Parc des Princes, with their average pre-game odds of 1.44 implying a 69.44% probability of a home win. Conversely, Dortmund are priced at a distant 6.00 in the win market, so Edin Terzić’s side have just a 16.66% of prevailing during 90 minutes. Interestingly, PSG can be backed at around 1.75 to qualify for the final, implying a 57.14% probability of this outcome occurring.

Team
PSG to Win	1.44	1.48	1.47	1.40	1.47
Borussia Dortmund to Win	6.00	5.75	5.85	6.00	6.00
Draw	4.50	4.75	4.70	4.50	4.60

⚽ PSG vs Dortmund: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 16 of PSG’s 25 matches at the Parc des Princes in all competitions this season (64%), with Enrique’s outfit keeping a total of nine clean sheets and failing to score only once. They’ve also scored in 24 consecutive home games since a 0-0 draw with Lorient on August 12th. As for Dortmund, 15 of their 23 away matches have seen both sides find the net in 2023/24 (65.21%). The ‘Black and Yellow’ have kept six clean sheets and drawn three blanks on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.57	1.65	1.58	1.58	1.57
No	2.25	2.20	2.30	2.30	2.25

🥅 PSG vs Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 25 home matches contested by PSG have produced 80 goals in total, at a rate of 3.40 per game. The Parisians have scored 60 of these at an impressive average of 2.40 per 90 minutes. Dortmund’s 25 away matches have yielded 70 goals at the slightly lower rate of 3.04 per 90, while the Bundesliga side have conceded 27 times on the road at an average of 1.17 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.44	1.48	1.46	1.46	1.44
Under 2.5 Goals	2.60	2.60	2.54	2.54	2.50

1️⃣ PSG Update

The Parisians have been typically strong at home this season, losing only twice in 25 matches at the Parc des Princes in all competitions. Barcelona inflicted PSG’s only home defeat in the Champions League this term, and this remans their sole loss in 22 outings in front of their own fans since Nice prevailed 3-2 on September 15th. In addition to the aforementioned Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele has also been central to PSG’s impressive offensive play this season, as he averages 4.92 shot-creating actions per 90 and has contributed two assists in the UCL. Overall, he has produced 14 assists in just 39 appearances for PSG in 2023/24.

Lucas Hernandez limped off during the first half of last week’s match against Dortmund and has subsequently been ruled out of contention with an ACL injury. Like Sergio Rico (head injury), he won’t feature again for PSG this season. The second leg will also come a little too soon for Layvin Kurzawa (back) and Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon), who are expected to return to the first-team fold in mid-May.

2️⃣ Dortmund Update

While Dortmund may be struggling in fifth place in the Bundesliga, they’ve only lost four of the 20 matches they’ve contested in all competitions since the turn of the year. Just two of these defeats have come on the road too, including a 2-1 reversal at Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League quarterfinal. They remain among the most competitive and hardest running teams in the Champions League, having completed 593 ball recoveries (no side has registered more) and won 56.3% of their aerial duels. Because of this and their obvious threat in transition, they’ll prove a tough nut for PSG to crack in the French capital.

Karim Adeyemi (knock) is a doubt for Dortmund ahead of the second leg in Paris, and will continue to be assessed prior to kick-off. However, Julien Duranville (muscle) has been ruled out and won’t make his return until the middle of May. Both Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament injury) and Abdoulaye Kamara (muscle) remain sidelined and may not play again in 2023/24, but Sebastien Haller has recovered from an ankle injury and could play a part in the second leg.

👕 PSG vs Dortmund Potential Lineups