PSG vs Barcelona: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 10th April 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds@3.80
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 3.80
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Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 3.75
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The 2023/24 Champions League quarterfinal draw has blown the tournament wide open, with four of the five most fancied outright winners drawn against each other in the last eight. So, both PSG and Barcelona know that a relatively favourable clash against either Borussia Dortmund or Atletico Madrid awaits them in the last four, ahead of the showpiece final at Wembley on June 1st. But will PSG be able to make home advantage count in the first leg at the Parc des Princes, or can Barca eke out an advantage as they go in search of their first UCL title since 2015? Here’s my take and what Ireland’s best betting sites have to say!

🏆 PSG vs Barcelona Prediction

These two teams have battled 12 times in the UEFA Champions League, sharing four wins apiece and four draws during this run of fixtures. Their most famous two-legged tie came in the round of 16 during the 2016/17 campaign when the Catalan giants famously overturned a 4-0 first-leg deficit by thrashing PSG 6-1 in the return match.

Both sides are used to dominating the ball in this season’s Champions League, with PSG averaging 64.9% possession per 90 in their eight matches so far (only Man City fare better according to this metric). Barcelona have averaged 58.5% possession per game during the competition, although they have a slightly higher short pass completion rate (90.8% vs 90.0%). So, I expect both PSG and Barca to have extended control periods in the French capital.

In terms of utilising possession, PSG and Barca average 28.87 and 28.75 shot-creating actions per 90, respectively, in this season’s UCL. However, Xavi’s team have been far more efficient in front of goal, outperforming their xG of 13.9 by +1.1 goals and achieving a goals-to-shot ratio of 0.11. Although PSG have accumulated a higher xG of 16.0, they’ve underperformed this by -3.0 goals and have one of the lowest shot conversion rates in the competition.

This relative profligacy could cost PSG in Paris, while it will certainly make it hard for them to achieve a win in the first leg. However, they’ve only lost one of 22 home matches in all competitions this season, so I expect a tense and close encounter that ultimately ends in a score draw.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSG 1 - 1 Barcelona ⚽

💯 PSG vs Barcelona Match Odds

Like most Champions League last eight encounters, this is an incredibly tough match to call. There’s certainly little difference between the two teams, so betting markets such as BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored are likely to be particularly popular. Of course, you can also wager on the first leg result, but how do sportsbooks currently price these markets?

🏅 PSG vs Barcelona: Match Winner

PSG are the pre-game favourites to defeat Barcelona at the Parc des Princes, with their average odds of 1.95 implying a 51.28% probability of a home win. Conversely, you can back Barcelona to prevail at around 3.50, suggesting that they have just a 28.57% chance of achieving this objective. The draw is priced at 3.75, which implies a 26.66% chance of the first leg ending in a tie.

Team
PSG to Win 1.95 1.95 1.93 1.93 2.00
Barcelona to Win 3.50 3.50 3.55 3.55 3.50
Draw 3.60 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.80

⚽ PSG vs Barcelona: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 13 of PSG’s 22 home matches in 2023/24 (59%), with Luis Enrique’s side keeping an impressive nine clean sheets and drawing just a single blank (against Lorient on the opening day of the season). They’ve also kept three clean sheets in four UCL home games during the campaign. Both sides have found the net in 15 of Barca’s 21 away matches this season (71%), with the Catalan side keeping five clean sheets and failing to score on three occasions.

Yes/No
Yes 1.57 1.60 1.57 1.57 1.57
No 2.25 2.30 2.32 2.32 2.30

🥅 PSG vs Barcelona: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 22 home matches contested by PSG in all competitions have produced 69 goals in total, at a rate of 3.13 per 90 minutes. The Parisians have scored 51 of these goals at a rate of 2.31 per 90. As for Barca, their 21 away matches have yielded 66 goals at the slightly lower rate of 3.14 per game, although the La Liga side has scored just 39 of these goals and conceded 27.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals 1.62 1.67 1.63 1.63 1.66
Under 2.5 Goals 2.15 2.15 2.14 2.14 2.22

✔️ PSG vs Barcelona - Betting Tips

The evenly matched nature of these two teams makes it hard to create a viable betting strategy, despite the pre-game odds making PSG the clear favourites to prevail during the first leg. So, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips and insights to help you make the most of your real money bankroll and any available free bets on your account!

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: The draw is the least statistically likely outcome according to the pre-game odds, which imply just a 26.66% probability of the first leg ending in a tie. However, there’s very little to choose between these two teams, and neither side will want to overcommit in the pursuit of victory at the Parc des Princes. PSG are also undefeated in 19 home matches since a 3-2 defeat to Nice on September 15th, and Barca have lost just three of their 21 away matches in all competitions (and none in La Liga). So, consider backing the draw here at the competitive price of 3.80 with LegendPlay-Sports.
  • Tip 2: Bet on There Being Under 2.5 Goals Scored: The odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this first-leg clash, based on the respective home and away performances of PSG and Barcelona through 2023/24. However, PSG’s four home Champions League games have produced just nine goals at the much lower rate of 2.25 per 90, while Barca’s four away matches in the UCL have yielded the exact same number of goals. Given this and the magnitude of the game, there’s value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.22 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Kylian Mbappe as an Anytime Goalscorer: While Luis Enrique has used Kylian Mbappe sparingly ahead of his impending summer move to Real Madrid, he’s likely to start in a match of this magnitude. What’s more, the pacy forward already has six UCL goals this season from 31 attempts and an xG of just 5.5. Mbappe scored four goals in just two Champions League appearances against Barcelona, too, including a hattrick at the Nou Camp in February 2021. So, why not back Mbappe as an anytime score at the competitive price of 2.10 with 1Bet Sports?

1️⃣ PSG Update

PSG continue to canter towards their 10th Ligue 1 title in just 12 years, despite a stuttering run of form that has seen them draw four of their previous six matches in the competition. This sequence has included three successive draws at home, with the Parisians held to a 1-1 stalemate at the Parc des Princes by bottom club Clermont Foot last time out. However, they’ve only been beaten once in 22 home matches in all competitions this season, with Nice the previous team to prevail in the French capital on September 15th. Enrique’s side are unbeaten in all four UCL home matches this season, too, and have conceded just once during these fixtures.

Last 5 Games
PSG 1 Clermont Foot 1 06.04.24 Ligue 1
PSG 1 Rennes 0 03.04.24 French Cup
Marseille 0 PSG 2 31.03.24 Ligue 1
Montpellier 2 PSG 6 17.03.24 Ligue 1
PSG 3 Nice 1 13.03.24 French Cup

Both Nuno Mendes (hamstring injury) and precocious young midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery (thigh) are doubts ahead of the visit of Barcelona. Bradley Barcola (hamstring) and Layvin Kurzawa (back) have both been ruled out and won’t return until mid-April, although they will continue to be assessed ahead of the quarterfinal second leg. Goalkeeper Sergio Rico (head injury) and seasoned centre-back Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon) are longer-term absentees, with the former definitely out for the remainder of the season.

Player Reason
Nuno Mendes Hamstring Injury
Warren Zaire-Emery Thigh Injury
Bradley Barcola Hamstring Injury
Layvin Kurzawa Back Injury
Sergio Rico Head Injury
Presnel Kimpembe Achilles Tendon Injury

2️⃣ Barcelona Update

Barcelona are now unbeaten in 11 matches in all competitions since Villareal thrashed them 5-3 at the Nou Camp on January 27th. This sequence has seen them rise to second in La Liga and close the gap on bitter rivals Real Madrid to eight points, while it has also seen Barca eliminate Napoli 4-2 on aggregate in the UCL round of 16. This run of form has seen the team recover its defensive solidity too, with the Catalan side having kept four clean sheets in their previous six matches since February 24th. However, they’ve still conceded 53 goals in just 43 matches so far this season, having only shipped 46 in total during the entire 2022/23 campaign.

Last 5 Games
Barcelona 1 Las Palmas 0 30.03.24 La Liga
Atletico Madrid 0 Barcelona 3 17.03.24 La Liga
Barcelona 3 Napoli 1 12.03.24 UEFA Champions League
Barcelona 1 Mallorca 0 08.03.24 La Liga
Athletic Bilbao 0 Barcelona 0 03.03.24 La Liga

Barcelona have been buoyed by the recent return to training of Frenkie de Jong (ankle injury) and Pedri (thigh), with both expected to play some role in the first leg against PSG. Otherwise, Barca remain without a number of long-term absentees, including Andreas Christensen (Achilles tendon) and Alejandro Balde (who are unlikely to return until late May). Young midfielder Gavi has been ruled out for the season with a cruciate ligament tear.

Player Reason
Frenkie de Jong Ankle Injury
Pedri Thigh Injury
Andreas Christensen Achilles Tendon Injury
Alejandro Balde Tendon Rupture
Gavi Cruciate Ligament Tear

👕 PSG vs Barcelona - Potential Lineups

Pos. PSG 4-3-3 Barcelona 4-3-3 Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Donnarumma M. ter Stegen Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Hakimi J. Koundé Right Back
Centre Back Marquinhos R. Araújo Centre Back
Centre Back M. Škriniar I. Martínez Centre Back
Left Back L. Hernandez J. Cancelo Left Back
Midfielder Vitinha F. de Jong Midfielder
Midfielder F. Ruiz Pedri Midfielder
Midfielder M. Ugarte I. Gündoğan Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Dembele Raphinha Wide Forward
Striker K. Kolo Muani R. Lewandowski Striker
Wide Forward K. Mbappe L. Yamal Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

**/whitebg**

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