PSG v Real Sociedad: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 14 Feb 24
PredictionPSG To Win!
Odds@1.62
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PSG To Win!
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Odds : 1.62
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Odds : 1.60
Bet €100 and win €160 if PSG win.
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Ligue 1 giants PSG will resume their quest for a maiden Champions League crown on February 14th, when they entertain Real Sociedad in the first leg of their round of 16 tie. However, Luis Enrique’s side only qualified for the knockout stages on head-to-head goal difference, having finished second and level on eight points with AC Milan. As for underdogs Real Sociedad, they qualified with ease from Group D, but currently find themselves embarked on a relatively poor run of domestic form. But will PSG make experience and home advantage count here, and how are the best betting sites pricing a home win?

🏆PSG v Real Sociedad Prediction

Interestingly, PSG and Real Sociedad have never met in official UEFA competition, although it should be noted that the hosts weren’t founded until 1970. However, PSG are currently appearing in the Champions League for the 12th consecutive year, whereas the current UCL campaign is only Sociedad’s second since 2004.

The Parisians have also proved tough to beat under the tutelage of Luis Enrique, losing just three of their 29 matches in all competitions through 2023/24. They’ve only failed to win three of their previous 11 UCL home games at the Parc des Princes too, with Enrique insisting on a possession based approach that has helped the side to control matches in front of their own fans.

In fact, PSG have averaged 66.8% possession per 90 minutes in the 2023/24 Champions League to date, with only City bossing more of the ball (70.5%). However, Imanol Alguacil’s Sociedad side is also technically adept and averaged 56.0% possession across their six Group D matches, so this will be an open game in which both sides will look to get on the ball and create chances.

However, PSG undoubtedly boast the superior firepower, with star forward Kylian Mbappe having already scored 29 goals in 28 appearances (and three in six UCL outings) in 2023/24. Winger Ousmane Dembele has also recorded 5.23 shot-creating actions per 90 in the Champions League, so I expect the home side to carve out the best opportunities and secure a narrow lead in the first leg.

My Prediction: 🏆 PSG 2 – 1 Real Sociedad ⚽

💯 PSG v Real Sociedad Match Odds

Betiton-free-bet-bannerBetiton-free-bet-banner

There are plenty of ways in which you can bet on the UCL first leg clash between PSG and Real Sociedad, from backing the match winner and BTTS (or not) to the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the game. But how are these markets being priced, and what do the odds reveal about the most likely match outcomes?

🏅 PSG v Real Sociedad: Match Winner

Given their pedigree and home form, it’s no surprise that PSG are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Sociedad. In fact, PSG can be backed at around 1.60 to prevail in the first leg, with these odds implying a 62.5% probability of a home win. As for Sociedad, they’re priced as high as 5.25 to triumph, suggesting that they have only a 19.04% chance of winning at the Parc des Princes.

Team
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betway-logobetway-logo
Betiton-logoBetiton-logo
Mr-Mega-logoMr-Mega-logo
LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
PSG to Win1.571.621.601.551.60
Real Sociedad to Win5.004.755.255.005.25
Draw3.604.004.004.003.80

⚽ PSG v Real Sociedad: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 17 of PSG’s 29 matches in 2023/24 (58.62%), with PSG only failing to find the net on two occasions. While 15 of the 35 matches (42.85%) contested by Real Sociedad have seen both sides score, this outcome has only occurred in three of their previous 12 outings since December 9th. This sequence has included six 0-0 draws, although it should be noted that the Spaniards have only lost one of these matches.

Yes/No
1bet-logo1bet-logo
betway-logobetway-logo
Betiton-logoBetiton-logo
Mr-Mega-logoMr-Mega-logo
LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Yes1.731.781.741.801.73
No2.002.002.022.052.00

🥅 PSG v Real Sociedad: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

These two teams have contested a combined 64 matches in all competitions this season, with these encounters yielding 168 goals at a rate of 2.62 per game. So, the bookies are split on whether there will be over or under 2.5 goals scored in the first leg, especially with Sociedad having kept a staggering 19 clean sheets in 35 matches in 2023/24 (albeit rarely against the quality of attack boasted by PSG).

Under/Over
1bet-logo1bet-logo
betway-logobetway-logo
Betiton-logoBetiton-logo
Mr-Mega-logoMr-Mega-logo
LegendPlay-logoLegendPlay-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.731.731.721.671.73
Under 2.5 Goals2.002.002.012.102.00

✔️ PSG v Real Sociedad - Betting Tips

This game may be a candidate for a matched betting strategy, as you could lay a back wager on PSG to win and cover all potential results. Of course, you’ll may prefer to deploy any free bets that you have on alternative markets, so here are some additional tips to keep in mind.

  • Tip 1: Back Both Teams to Score: Sociedad’s struggles in front of goal aren’t being helped by a mounting injury crisis, with the La Liga outfit having scored just eight times in their previous 12 games. They only scored seven in their six group stage games too, but their top Champions League scorer Brais Méndez and key creator Takefusa Kubo (who has recorded 6.65 shot-creating actions per 90 in the UCL) will be available to start in Paris. PSG retain a goal threat whenever and wherever they play, so get on both sides to score at the competitive price of 1.80 with Mr Mega Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Paris to win with Over 2.5 Goals Scored: The sportsbooks detailed in Betinireland’s bookmaker reviews all allow you to place combination bets, which may help you to unlock additional value when wagering on PSG vs Real Sociedad. For example, you could back PSG to win with over 2.5 goals scored at a price of 2.40 with Betway, with this reflecting the French side’s superiority and the threat that both teams pose in the attacking third.
  • Tip 3: Back PSG to win by a Single Goal: While PSG have proved tough to beat this season, Real Sociedad have also only been defeated four times in 35 matches in 2023/24. All of Sociedad’s losses have been by a single goal too, so any PSG victory is likely to be hard-fought and incredibly close. Given this and the La Liga side’s outstanding defensive record, I think there’s value to be found in backing PSG to prevail by the odd goal at a price of 3.40 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ PSG Update

PSG have only lost two of their last 24 matches since September 15th, with both defeats coming in the Champions League group stages (at Newcastle on October 4th and Milan on November 7th). However, the 3-2 reversal to Nice in September remains the last time that PSG lost at home, and their sole defeat in 14 outings at the Parc des Princes in 2023/24. Since their last UCL game at Dortmund on December 13th, PSG are also unbeaten in eight matches domestically, with this run having seen them move eight points clear at the top of Ligue 1 and reach the Coupe de France round of 16.

Last 5 Games
Strasbourg 1
PSG 2
02.02.24
Ligue 1
PSG 2
Brest 2
28.01.24
Ligue 1
US Orleans 1
PSG 4
20.01.24
Coupe de France
Lens 0
PSG 2
14.01.24
Ligue 1
Revel 0
PSG 9
07.01.24
Coupe de France

PSG will be boosted by the return of Achraf Hakimi for the clash against Real Sociedad, with Morocco having been eliminated from the African Cup of Nations in the round of 16. Kang-in Lee will also have returned from the AFC Asian Cup, although whether he’s ready to start has yet to be seen. This match may also come a little too soon for keeper Sergio Rico (head injury), while Milan Skriniar remains a doubt with an ankle complaint. Presnel Kimpembe has also been ruled out as he recovers from an Achilles tendon rupture.

Player Reason
Kang-in Lee International Duty
Sergio Rico Head Injury
Milan Skriniar Ankle Injury
Presnel Kimpembe Achilles Tendon Rupture

2️⃣ Real Sociedad Update

Sociedad’s recent form has been puzzling, as their run of just one defeat in 12 matches has also seen them win on just four occasions. They’ve drawn the other seven games, while six of these stalemates have ended goalless. Sociedad’s last three domestic games have all ended in 0-0 draws, with the Spanish side having now failed to score for 294 minutes. So, although they remain tough to beat, they’re also struggling to convert chances and win games, while the potential absence of top scorer Mikel Oyarzabal may make it even harder for Sociedad to exploit the space in behind the PSG backline in Paris.

Last 5 Games
Mallorca 0
Real Sociedad 0
06.02.24
Copa del Rey
Girona 0
Real Sociedad 0
03.02.24
La Liga
Real Sociedad 0
Rayo Vallecano 0
27.01.24
La Liga
Celta Vigo 1
Real Sociedad 2
23.01.24
Copa del Rey
Celta Vigo 0
Real Sociedad 1
20.01.24
La Liga

The good news for Sociedad is that Oyarzabal may be fit enough for the trip to Paris, despite the forward reporting to training with a muscle contusion. Fellow striker Sheraldo Becker (adductor pain) may also miss out against PSG, while Álvaro Odriozola (knee), Aritz Elustondo (toe) and on-loan Arsenal full back Kieran Tierney (hamstring) are doubts too. Sociedad will also remain without Aihen Muñoz (cruciate ligament tear) and striker Carlos Fernandez (meniscus damage), with these two having been ruled out for the remainder of the campaign.

Player Reason
Mikel Oyarzabal Muscle Contusion
Sheraldo Becker Adductor Pain
Álvaro Odriozola Knee Injury
Aritz Elustondo Toe Injury
Kieran Tierney Hamstring Injury
Aihen Muñoz Cruciate Ligament Tear
Carlos Fernandez Meniscus Damage

👕 PSG vs Real Sociedad - Potential Lineups

Pos. PSG
4-3-3
Real Sociedad
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper G. Donnarumma A. Remiro Goalkeeper
Right Back A. Hakimi H. Traore Right Back
Centre Back Marquinhos I. Zubeldia Centre Back
Centre Back L. Beraldo R. Le Normand Centre Back
Left Back L. Hernandez J. Galan Left Back
Midfielder Vitinha B. Mendez Midfielder
Midfielder M. Ugarte M. Zubimendi Midfielder
Midfielder W. Zaïre-Emery M. Merino Midfielder
Wide Forward O. Dembele T. Kubo Wide Forward
Striker R. Kolo Muani A. Silva Striker
Wide Forward K. Mbappe A. Barrenetxea Wide Forward

PSG To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

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Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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