Napoli v Barcelona-->Napoli v Barcelona: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

napoli-v-barcelona-prediction napoli-v-barcelona-prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 21 Feb 24
PredictionBack the Draw
Odds@3.50
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Back the Draw
The best odds
1.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 3.50
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2.
Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 3.50
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3.
betway
Odds : 3.40
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napoli-vs-barcelona-ucl napoli-vs-barcelona-ucl

Napoli have endured a difficult campaign in 2023/24, slipping to ninth in defence of the historic Serie A title that they won last season and only qualifying for the Champions League round of 16 on matchday six. However, there’s also considerable vulnerability around Barcelona at present, with the team having kept just two clean sheets in their previous 15 matches in all competitions and slipped 10 points off the pace in La Liga. So, this should be an intriguing tie that could see plenty of goals, but which side will prevail in Naples and what have the best betting sites had to say?

🏆 Napoli v Barcelona Prediction

These two European giants have met twice before in the UEFA Champions League, during another round of 16 tie in the 2019/20 season. This tie saw Napoli and Barcelona contest a hard-fought 1-1 draw in the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona before the Catalan side flexed their muscles in the return leg and secured a 3-1 win (progressing 4-2 on aggregate).

In this campaign, however, both sides have struggled significantly in the defensive third. In the case of Napoli, they’ve shipped 41 goals in just 32 games in all competitions through 2023/24 so far, which is already higher than the 38 they conceded in the whole of last season. Barcelona have conceded an incredible 50 goals in just 35 matches since the beginning of the campaign, and once again, this is more than the 46 goals they shipped in 53 games in 2022/23.

In La Liga alone, Barca have let in 33 goals in 24 games so far, after conceding a paltry 20 times in 38 league matches last season. In the Champions League, they’ve also made three mistakes leading to an opponent’s shot on goal this season, while injuries to full-backs Alejandro Balde and Marcos Alonso have created a particular weakness on the left-hand side of the defence.

Both teams are far better going forward and relatively evenly matched in the attacking third. Napoli and Barcelona have recorded 3.17 and 2.33 goal-creating actions per 90 in the UCL, while they have similar xG values of 8.4 and 10.5 respectively. So, I’m expecting an exciting game with plenty of chances, while the final result could well be a high-scoring draw.

My Prediction: 🏆 Napoli 2 – 2 Barcelona ⚽

💯 Napoli v Barcelona Match Odds

Whether you want to wager on Napoli vs Barcelona using your hard-earned bankroll or some free bets that you have on your account, there are plenty of markets available. Here’s my take on the three most popular betting markets and their very latest odds.

🏅 Napoli v Barcelona: Match Winner

The bookies are largely split on which team will prevail in Naples. For example, you can back Napoli at around 2.60 triumph, with these odds implying a 38.46% of a home win. Barca’s average price of 2.55 suggests that they’re the marginal favourites here and have a 39.21% chance of winning on the road. The draw is priced at 3.50, which implies a 28.57% of the first leg ending in a tie.

Team
betway-logo betway-logo
Napoli to Win2.602.652.612.602.60
Barcelona to Win2.652.602.462.552.55
Draw3.503.403.353.503.40

⚽ Napoli v Barcelona: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 15 of Napoli’s 32 matches this season (47%), with the Azzurri failing to score on 11 occasions in all competitions. They’ve also kept nine clean sheets. As for Barca, both sides have found the net in 23 of their 35 games in 2023/24 (66%), including 13 of their previous 15 outings. Overall, the team has kept 11 clean sheets and failed to score on just two occasions.

Team
betway-logo betway-logo
Yes1.531.601.501.571.53
No2.382.302.302.302.38

🥅 Napoli v Barcelona: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Between them, Napoli and Barcelona have contested 67 matches in all competitions this season. These games have yielded 209 goals at a rate of 3.11 per 90 minutes, so the odds unsurprisingly imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the first leg. Remember, these sides have also conceded a combined total of 91 goals so far this season.

Team
betway-logo betway-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.621.671.631.701.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.102.102.062.152.10

✔️ Napoli v Barcelona - Betting Tips

The first leg clash between Napoli and Barcelona is arguably tailor-made for matched betting, which enables you lay a back bet on either side to win at a reputable exchange. This allows you to cover all potential match outcomes while using one or free bets can guarantee at least a nominal profit. Here are some additional match betting tips to keep in mind:

  • Tip 1: Back the Draw: While the draw is the least statistically likely outcome with an implied probability of 28.57%, there’s no clear favourite according to the pre-game odds. Both teams are also struggling to control games and prevent counterattacks, with Barca regularly failing to stop the opposition from scoring and Napoli having kept just four clean sheets in their previous 12 matches in all competitions. This should lead to an even and open contest in which both sides are vulnerable, so there’s value in backing the draw at a price of price of 3.50 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Bet on There Being Over 3.5 Goals Scored: The matches contested by Napoli and Barcelona this season have seen 209 goals scored at a rate of 3.11 per game, thanks to a combination of enduring defensive vulnerabilities and some exceptional individual quality in the attacking third. Since December 10th, Barca have also conceded two or more goals in nine out of 15 matches, and it’s hard to imagine either team keeping a clean sheet in Naples. So, consider getting on over 3.5 goals being scored here at a price of 2.60 with Betiton.
  • Tip 3: Back Napoli to Score Over 1.5 Goals: While Napoli may once again be without their talismanic hitman Victor Osimhen against Barcelona, the Catalans’ apparent inability to keep clean sheets at the moment will afford the Neapolitans plenty of chances. Remember, the visitors have also shipped two or more goals in nine of their last 15 games, including four against Girona, five at home to Villareal and three against struggling Granada last time out. So, there’s value in backing the home side alone to score over 1.5 goals in the game at a price of 2.20 with LegendPlay.

1️⃣ Napoli Update

Napoli’s faltering campaign has continued into the New Year, with Walter Mazzarri’s team having won just three (and lost five) of their previous 10 matches since December 23rd. Interestingly, they’ve only scored seven goals during this run, while conceding on 12 occasions and enduring a chastening 4-0 home defeat to Frosinone in the Coppa Italia round of 16. While may cast doubt on their current form and ability to score against Barca, they continue to create chances in the attacking third and have produced 27.33 shot-creating actions in the UCL so far (the seventh-highest tally in the competition).

Last 5 Games
Milan 1
Napoli 0
11.02.24
Serie A
Napoli 2
Verona 1
04.02.24
Serie A
Lazio 0
Napoli Ankaragücü 0
28.01.24
Serie A
Napoli 0
Inter 1
22.01.24
Supercoppa Italiana
Napoli 3
Fiorentina 0
18.01.24
Supercoppa Italiana

Napoli have a virtually fully fit squad to choose from ahead of the visit of Barcelona, with Juan Jesus available for selection despite serving a domestic ban. Victor Osimhen also remains a doubt ahead of this UCL round of 16 first leg match, although he has now returned to Naples following his exploits in the African Cup of Nations. The question that remains is whether he’s fit enough to start against Barca next week.

PlayerReason
Victor OsimhenFitness

2️⃣ Barcelona Update

Barca’s defensive issues have become endemic of late, with the Catalan giants having conceded an incredible 33 goals in their previous 15 matches in all competitions at a rate of 2.20 per 90 minutes. This sequence alone has cost them 10 points in the last nine La Liga matches, as they’ve slipped into third place in the table and 10 points behind bitter rivals Real Madrid. From an offensive perspective, Barca will also be without their two top Champions League goalscorers (João Félix and Ferran Torres) in Naples, and while they boast more than enough quality and strength in depth in the final third, such absences are likely to be keenly felt.

Last 5 Games
Barcelona 3
Granada 3
11.02.24
La Liga
Alaves 1
Barcelona 3
03.02.24
La Liga
Barcelona 1
Osasuna 0
31.01.24
La Liga
Barcelona 3
Villarreal 5
27.01.24
La Liga
Athletic Bilbao 4
Barcelona 2
24.01.24
Copa del Rey

Torres (hamstring injury) and João Félix (ankle) are unlikely to return until early March and late February respectively, so both will definitely miss out in Naples. Left-back Marcos Alonso (back) has also been ruled out until March, while fellow full-back Alejandro Balde continues his recovery from a tendon rupture. Precocious midfielder Gavi is also out for the season with a cruciate ligament tear, but club captain Sergio Roberto should be available for selection having recovered from a muscular complaint.

PlayerReason
Ferran TorresHamstring Injury
João FélixAnkle Injury
Marcos AlonsoBack Injury
Alejandro BaldeTendon Rupture
GaviCruciate Ligament Tear

👕 Napoli vs Barcelona - Potential Lineups

Pos. Napoli
3-4-3
Barcelona
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper P. Gollini M. ter Stegen Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back L. Skiri Østigård J. Koundé Right Back
Centre Back A. Rrahmani R. Araújo Centre Back
Left Centre Back Juan Jesus I. Martínez Centre Back
Right Wing Back G. Di Lorenzo J. Cancelo Left Back
Midfielder A. Zambo Anguissa F. de Jong Midfielder
Midfielder S. Lobotka A. Christensen Midfielder
Left Wing Back P. Mazzocchi I. Gündoğan Midfielder
Wide Forward M. Politano L. Yamal Wide Forward
Striker V. Osimhen R. Lewandowski Striker
Wide Forward K. Kvaratskhelia Pedri Wide Forward

Back the Draw

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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