Manchester City vs Copenhagen: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

man-city-v-copenhagen-logo man-city-v-copenhagen-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 6th Mar 24
PredictionMan City to Win!
Odds1.13
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Man City to Win!
The best odds
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1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.13
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Odds : 1.13
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Odds : 1.11
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Manchester City already have one foot in the Champions League quarterfinals, having secured a relatively comfortable 3-1 win over Copenhagen at the Parken Stadium in the first leg. They’ve also embarked on a 17-match unbeaten run in all competitions too, while they haven’t been beaten at the Etihad Stadium since November 2022. It should therefore come as no surprise that City are the overwhelming favourites at the best betting sites to win the second leg and qualify for the last eight, and Copenhagen would have to produce arguably the biggest shock in UCL history to prevail.

🏆 Manchester City vs Copenhagen Prediction

City are now unbeaten in five matches against Copenhagen in official UEFA competition, while their 3-1 victory at the Parken Stadium on February 13th was their third against this opposition. The defending European Champions were thoroughly dominant in Denmark too, boasting 79.00% possession during the 90 minutes and attempting 27 shots on goal (13 of which were on target).

Incredibly, Copenhagen are still within reach of City, although the idea of them winning by three clear goals at the Etihad is fanciful at best. After all, they’re averaging just 18.29 shot-creating actions per 90 in this season’s UCL (compared to 41.71 for Man City), while their xG of 7.9 is lower than any side that remains in the tournament in 2023/24.

Of course, Copehagen’s first challenge will be retrieving and retaining the ball in Manchester. They average just 39.70% possession per 90 minutes in the UCL (only Union Berlin have seen less of the ball), whereas City have had the ball 71.70% of the time in their seven matches so far. So, I expect them to dominate the ball again here despite their comfortable first-leg lead, and this will enable their superior creativity and firepower to take centre stage.

The good news for Copenhagen is that they’re tenacious and have completed 335 ball recoveries in the Champions League, while City haven’t been at their best defensively at home or abroad. While they may well score at the Etihad, however, they’ll struggle to contain a Man City team and should be comfortably beaten in the second leg.

My Prediction: 🏆 Man City 4 – 1 Copenhagen ⚽

💯 Manchester City vs Copenhagen Match Odds

Given City’s status as the overwhelming favourites to defeat Copenhagen, you’ll want to compare prices across several betting markets before committing your hard-earned cash. These include the match winner and result, BTTS and the over/under on the total number of goals scored, but how are these markets currently priced?

🏅 Manchester City vs Copenhagen: Match Winner

City are priced at around 1.10 to defeat Copenhagen at the Etihad, implying a whopping 90.90% probability of a home win. Conversely, you back the Danes as high as 20.00 to leave Manchester victorious, suggesting that they have just a 5% chance of victory. City are also priced as low as 1.00 to prevail in the tie overall, while Copenhagen can be backed at 81.00 to qualify.

Team
Man City to Win1.131.131.081.101.11
Copenhagen to Win19.0015.0017.1020.0015.00
Draw8.008.008.608.008.50

⚽ Manchester City vs Copenhagen: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 10 of City’s 17 home matches this season (59%), highlighting their occasional defensive vulnerability. However, they’ve kept seven clean sheets in all competitions, and no opponent has stopped them from scoring at the Etihad. Both sides have also found the net in 10 of Copenhagen’s 17 away matches, with the Danes keeping six clean sheets and failing to score once (at Old Trafford against Manchester United on October 24th).

Yes/No
Yes2.202.202.272.202.20
No1.601.651.521.671.62

🥅 Manchester City vs Copenhagen: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

City’s 17 home games in all competitions have produced 59 goals in total, at a rate of 3.47 per 90. Copenhagen’s 17 away matches have been even more goal-laden, yielding 60 goals at a rate of 3.52 per game. So, the smart money here is clearly on over 2.5 goals being scored in the second leg at the Etihad Stadium.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.361.361.301.331.30
Under 2.5 Goals2.882.903.023.003.25

✔️ Manchester City vs Copenhagen - Betting Tips

This match certainly isn’t a candidate for matched betting, with City far superior to their opponents and the overwhelming favourites. So, here are some alternative wagering tips to help you make the most of your bankroll and available free bets.

  • Tip 1: Back City to Win With Over 4.5 Goals: While most over/under betting activity usually takes place around the 2.5 goals line, City’s home games have seen an average of 3.47 goals scored in all competitions this season. Their xG during the first leg in Denmark was also an impressive 3.4, while Copenhagen also had chances in transition in front of their home fans. Remember, City are also unbeaten in 29 home UCL matches, since a 2-1 defeat to Lyon on September 19th, 2018. So, get on City to win with over 4.5 goals scored at a price of 3.30 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back City to Win With a Handicap of -2.75 Goals: City have won seven of their previous eight home Champions League matches by two goals or more, including a 7-0 thrashing of RB Leipzig in their round of 16 second leg last season. The xG data also suggests that they should have defeated Copenhagen by at least three goals during the first leg, while Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne are now back to full fitness after their recent injury absences. So, there may be some value in backing City to win with a handicap of -2.75 goals at a price of 2.25 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Both Teams to Score: Interestingly, the odds imply a higher probability of both teams not scoring at the Etihad. However, this fails to take into account City’s increased defensive frailty this season, or the fact that the Danes have only failed to score once on the road all season. City have also found the net in all of their 17 home matches in 2023/24, so consider backing both teams to score at price of 2.27 with Betiton.

1️⃣ Man City Update

City’s remarkable 17-game unbeaten run has covered four different competitions, namely the Premier League, FA Cup, Champions League and the FIFA Club World Cup (which they won in Saudi Arabia). They’ve won 15 of these matches while scoring 45 goals at exactly 3.00 per game and conceding just 12. They also boast the Champions League’s joint-top scorer Erling Haaland, who has struck five times from an xG of 6.1 and 32 shots in total. He also scored a remarkable five goals in the recent FA Cup victory at Luton, with Kevin De Bruyne laying on four assists in the same match.

Last 5 Games
Luton 2
Man City 6
27.02.24
FA Cup
Bournemouth 0
Man City 1
24.02.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Brentford 0
20.02.24
Premier League
Man City 1
Chelsea 1
17.02.24
Premier League
Copenhagen 1
Man City 3
13.02.24
Champions League

Jack Grealish limped off early during the 6-2 thrashing of Luton at Kenilworth Road, with Pep Guardiola suggesting that he may have aggravated the groin injury he initially incurred in the first leg win over Copenhagen. However, defender Josko Gvardiol may have recovered from his ankle knock in time for the second leg clash, although whether he starts or not has yet to be seen.

Player Reason
Jack Grealish Groin Injury
Josko Gvardiol Ankle Injury

2️⃣ FC Copenhagen Update

Copenhagen’s first-leg defeat at the Parken Stadium was their first competitive match after the Danish winter break, but they have since rebounded with two successive victories in the Danish Superliga. This has moved them into second place in the table and just a point behind league leaders Brondby, while they’ve already guaranteed qualification for the competition’s Championship round. In all competitions this season, Copenhagen have won 20 of their 36 matches (56%), while they’ve incurred eight defeats (including three in the Champions League). Interestingly, only two of these defeats have come on the road, at Viborg and Manchester United.

Last 5 Games
Copenhagen 2
FC Nordsjælland 0
26.02.24
Danish Superliga
Silkeborg 0
Copenhagen 3
18.02.24
Danish Superliga
Copenhagen 1
Man City 3
13.02.24
Champions League
Copenhagen 3
Molde1
08.02.24
The Atlantic Cup
Copenhagen 1
Brøndby2
05.02.24
The Atlantic Cup

Centre-back Davit Khocholava will miss the trip to Manchester with a knee injury, while influential midfielder Lukas Lerager (muscle injury) is also expected to be unavailable. Goalkeeper Theo Sander is out for the season after undergoing knee surgery, although Nicolai Boilesen has recently returned to training after a knock. Emil Højlund (the brother of Man United striker Rasmus) is also a doubt with an unspecified injury concern.

Player Reason
Davit Khocholava Knee Injury
Lukas Lerager Muscle Injury
Theo Sander Knee Surgery
Nicolai Boilesen Knock
Emil Højlund Unknown Injury

👕 Man City vs FC Copenhagen- Potential Lineups

Pos. Man City
3-2-4-1
Copenhagen
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper Ederson K. Grabara Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back K. Walker E. Jelert Right Back
Centre Back R. Dias D. Vavro Centre Back
Left Centre Back N. Ake S. McKenna Centre Back
Defensive Midfielder J. Stones K. Diks Left Back
Defensive Midfielder Rodri D. Gonçalves Midfielder
Right Midfielder P. Foden R. Falk Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder K. De Bruyne M. Mattsson Midfielder
Attacking Midfielder B. Silva M. Elyounoussi Wide Forward
Left Midfielder J. Doku V. Claesson Striker
Striker E. Haaland E. Achouri Wide Forward

Man City to Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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