Inter Milan v Real Sociedad Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

inter-milan-v-real-sociodad-logo inter-milan-v-real-sociodad-logo
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 12th Dec 23
PredictionInter to Win!
BookmakerDachbet Sports
The best odds
Dach​bet Sports
Odds : 1.60
Bet €100 and win €160 if Inter win.
Odds : 1.60
Bet €100 and win €160 if Inter win.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Tony​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.60
Bet €100 and win €160 if Inter win.
inter-milan-v-real-sociodad inter-milan-v-real-sociodad

This Group D Champions League clash will determine whether Inter Milan or Real Sociedad finish in first place, with both sides having accrued 11 points from five matches. The La Liga side currently top the group on goal difference, with the teams having drawn 1-1 at the Reale Arena in San Sebastián in Gameweek one. Another draw at the San Siro will see Sociedad claim first place, while a victory for either side will also prove decisive. But how do I think this match will pan out, and which side have the best betting sites made their favourites?

🏆 Inter Milan v Real Sociedad UCL Prediction

The game in San Sebastián on September 20th was the first-ever Champions League meeting between these two sides, although they did contest a two-legged first-round UEFA Cup game in the 1979/80 season. This encounter was also incredibly close, with both teams defensively well-organised and highly efficient in terms of their counter-pressing.

Sociedad alone have completed 294 ball recoveries in the 2023/24 UCL (only Galatasaray have recorded more), while Inter (263) are also in the top 10 for this metric. However, the La Liga outfit has won a tournament-high 16 tackles in the attacking third (compared to just eight for Inter), suggesting that they tend to adopt a higher defensive line and slightly more aggressive press.

So, although I expect Sociedad and Inter to have a relatively even share of possession (they’ve averaged 56.20% and 53.40% across the competition so far), the home side will also drop into their defensive shape at times and look to counterattack in numbers. Their xG value of 11.60 is also the third highest in the UCL, so they’re more than capable of creating chances however they play.

Inter boast impressive experience and pedigree too, while last season’s beaten finalists have won seven (and lost just one) of their nine home games in all competitions in 2023/24. They have also kept five clean sheets at the San Siro, so I’m tipping them to edge a close and relatively low-scoring game.

My Prediction: 🏆 Inter Milan 2 – 0 Real Sociedad ⚽

💯 Inter Milan v Real Sociedad UCL Match Odds

In some ways, the game between Inter and Real Sociedad is tailor-made for matched betting. This means that you could lay a back bet on Inter to win at a reputable exchange, in order to cover all potential match outcomes (including the draw). However, you can only secure a guaranteed profit if you have one or more free bets available, and if not, you may want to consider the following tips and markets.

🏅 Inter Milan v Real Sociedad: Match Winner

Inter are the unsurprising favourites to win this game, with their average price of 1.60 implying a 62.50% probability of them prevailing in front of their own fans. Interestingly, Sociedad can be backed as high as 5.15 to beat Inter and top of the group, which suggests that they only have a 19.41% chance of winning. All things considered, there’s little value in backing Inter to win outright, even if you pick one of the best rated operators from Betinireland’s comprehensive bookmaker reviews!

Inter Milan to Win1.601.601.551.601.55
Real Sociedad to Win5.

⚽ Inter Milan v Real Sociedad: Both Teams To Score

Inter have scored in every single match that they’ve played this season, while they’ve kept a clean sheet in 11 of their 19 games (57.89%). Conversely, Sociedad have drawn three blanks so far and kept eight clean sheets in 20 outings, while both sides have found the net in 12 encounters across all competitions.


🥅 Inter Milan v Real Sociedad: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

These two sides have contested 39 matches between them in all competitions this season. These encounters have seen 103 goals scored at both ends at a rate of 2.64 per game, so the odds imply a slightly higher probability of over 2.5 goals scored in the contest. However, Inter have only conceded 12 goals in their 19 games, while Sociedad are averaging just 1.55 goals per 90 at present.

Over 2.5 Goals1.751.731.721.731.75
Under 2.5 Goals1.952.001.981.952.00

✔️ Inter Milan v Real Sociedad - Betting Tips

As you can see, the way in which some of these markets are being priced offers instant value to bettors. You can also create value through strategies such as combination wagering, so I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you on your way!

  • Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals to be Scored: While the over/under odds imply a slightly lower probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in this game, this pricing doesn’t accurately reflect Inter’s defensive strength and organisation. Sociedad aren’t the most prolific of sides either, while they’re only averaging 0.9 goals per shot in the Champions League. So, I think there’s excellent value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored in the game at a price of 2.00 with Betway.
  • Tip 2: Back Inter to Win and Both Sides Not to Score: On a similar note, you can create combination bets to help leverage Inter’s exceptional defensive strength to your own advantage. For example, you can back Inter to win and both sides not to score at the enhanced price of price of 2.75 with Dachbet Sports, with Inter having kept five clean sheets in just nine home matches so far in 2023/24.
  • Tip 3: Back Inter to Win With a Small Handicap of -1.5 Goals Scored: Few UCL sides are as well drilled and durable as Inter, while I think their superior quality will shine as they look to top Champions League Group B. I certainly expect them to keep a clean sheet, while striker Lautaro Martínez has struck 15 goals in 19 matches for Inter so far this season. So, you could consider backing Inter to win with a small handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 2.65 with LegendPlay Sports.

1️⃣ Inter Update

Inter have won an impressive 73.68% of their matches in all competitions this season, recording 14 victories and just a single defeat in 19 games. They’re also unbeaten in 12 matches since a shock 2-1 defeat at home to Sassuolo on September 27th, while they’ve managed to score 41 goals overall and conceded a paltry 12 (at a rate of just 0.63 per 90). In midfielder Nicolo Barella, they also have one of the competition’s most-rounded performers, with the Italian international having completed 5.35 shot-creating actions per 90, nine tackles and 85.20% of his attempted short passes so far.

Last 5 Games
Napoli 0
Inter 3
Serie A
Benfica 3
Inter 3
Champions League
Juventus 1
Inter 1
Serie A
Inter 2
Frosinone 0
Serie A
RB Salzburg 0
Inter 1
Champions League

Inter will be without several defensive reinforcements for the visit of Sociedad. Versatile French defender Benjamin Pavard will definitely miss out with a patellar tendon dislocation and he isn’t expected to return until December 17th. Wing-back Denzel Dumfries has been ruled out with an unknown injury complaint, while experienced Dutch centre-back Stefan de Vrij is absent with an adductor issue.

Benjamin Pavard Patellar Tendon Dislocation
Denzel Dumfries Unknown Injury
Stefan de Vrij Adductor Injury

2️⃣ Real Sociedad Update

Sociedad’s form has been a little patchy of late, but they’ve still managed to win three of their last five La Liga games. They were also held to a goalless draw by RB Salzburg in UCL Gameweek five, while it should be noted that they’re considerably less impressive on the road than they are at the Reale Arena. In fact, they have won five of their 10 away matches in all competitions, losing twice and drawing on three occasions. However, it should be noted that those defeats have been administered by Real and Atletico Madrid, so Sociedad remain a durable and defensively proactive side that’s always difficult to beat.

Last 5 Games
Osasuna 1
Real Sociedad 1
La Liga
Real Sociedad 0
RB Salzburg 0
Champions League
Real Sociedad 2
Sevilla 1
La Liga
Almeira 1
Real Sociedad 3
La Liga
Real Sociedad 3
Benfica 1
Champions League

Star striker Mikel Oyarzabal is fit again and likely to start at the San Siro, but fellow forward Carlos Fernandez is still sidelined with a knee injury. Otherwise, winger Martín Merquelanz remains Sociedad’s only long-term absentee, as he continues his recovery from the knee injury he incurred in September.

Carlos Fernandez Knee Injury
Martín Merquelanz Knee Injury

👕 Inter Milan v Real Sociedad- Potential Lineups

Pos. Inter
Real Sociedad
Goalkeeper Y. Sommer A. Remiro Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back M. Darmian H. Traore Right Back
Centre Back F. Acerbi I. Zubeldia Centre Back
Left Centre Back C. Augusto R. Le Normand Centre Back
Right Wing Back J. Cuadrado K. Tierney Left Back
Midfielder N. Barella B. Mendez Midfielder
Midfielder H. Çalhanoğlu M. Zubimendi Midfielder
Midfielder H. Mkhitaryan M. Merino Midfielder
Left Wing Back F. Dimarco T. Kubo Wide Forward
Striker M. Thuram M. Oyarzabal Striker
Striker L. Martinez A. Barrenetxea Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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