Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid-->Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 20 Feb 24 |
| Prediction | Inter to win |
| Odds | @1.88 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Last season’s beaten Champions League finalists Inter Milan qualified comfortably from Group D this time around, finishing unbeaten and tied on 12 points with Real Sociedad. They only finished second to the La Liga side by virtue of goal difference, while they’ve also opened up a seven-point lead at the top of Serie A. As for Atletico, their form has been patchy since the beginning of December, winning just two of their eight away games in all competitions since December 3rd. Unsurprisingly, the best betting sites have made Inter favourites to win at the San Siro, but can Diego Simeone’s men spring a surprise here?
🏆 Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid Prediction
Inter and Atletico have never met before in the UEFA Champions League, although ‘Los Colchoneros’ did defeat the Serie A side 2-0 in the 2010 Super Cup. However, they’ll face a formidable and in-form Inter outfit at the San Siro next week, with Simone Inzaghi’s men having won 24 of their 32 matches (75%) in all competitions this season and lost just twice.
They’ve certainly been effectively defensively, conceding just 19 times in 32 matches (at a rate of 1.68 per game) and five goals in six UCL contests. In Europe, they’ve made just a single error leading to an opponent’s shot too, while their tally of 309 ball recoveries is the 10th highest in the 2023/24 campaign so far.
Of course, Atletico can lay claim to having the most efficient attack in the Champions League, having outperformed their xG value by +5.7 goals while scoring 17 times during the group stages. Their goals-per-shot ratio of 0.18 is also the second highest in the tournament (behind Arsenal), but they haven’t yet faced a team with Inter’s level of experience, quality or defensive organisation.
This may prove key, as could Atletico’s most recent form. The Spanish side has won seven and lost five of their previous 14 matches since beating Lazio 2-0 in their last UCL group stage game on December 13th, while Inter have lost just once in 25 outings since a 2-1 defeat at home to Sassuolo on September 27th. So, I’m expecting a controlled Inter performance and a comfortable win for the Italian side.
My Prediction: 🏆 Inter 2 – 0 Atletico Madrid ⚽
💯 Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid Match Odds
Betinireland’s recommended betting sites have published odds across a huge selection of Inter v Atletico Madrid markets, including the match winner and result, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in this first-leg clash. But how are these markets currently being priced?
🏅 Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid: Match Winner
Inter are the clear pre-game favourites to prevail at the San Siro, with their average price of 1.84 implying a 54.34% probability of a home win. Conversely, Atletico can be backed at around 4.15, so the implied probability of an away win is considerably lower at just 24.09%. The draw is priced at 3.50, which has a 28.57% chance of occurring and is the second most likely result statistically speaking.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Milan to Win | 1.80 | 1.88 | 1.84 | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Atletico Madrid to Win | 4.33 | 3.80 | 4.15 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
⚽ Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in just 13 of Inter’s 32 competitive games this season (40.62%), although the Nerazzurri have only failed to score once and kept an impressive 19 clean sheets. Overall, 19 of Atletico’s 35 matches (54.28%) have seen both sides find the net, with Simeone’s mean drawing six blanks and keeping 11 clean sheets.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.87 | 1.91 | 1.89 | 1.83 | 1.83 |
| No | 1.83 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.77 | 1.83 |
🥅 Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
While the bookies appear to be split on whether both teams will score at the San Siro, their odds imply a higher probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in the game. However, the 67 matches contested by Inter and Atletico have produced 201 goals at a rate of 3.00 per game, with Los Colchoneros both scoring and conceding more than their rivals.
| Team | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.03 | 2.05 | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.73 |
✔️ Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid - Betting Tips
Matched betting may be a viable strategy here, especially if you have one or more free bets on your account. For example, you could lay a back bet on Inter to win at a betting exchange and cover all potential match outcomes, ensuring at least a nominal profit in the process. Here are some other Inter Milan v Atlético Madrid betting tips to keep in mind:
- Tip 1: Back Both Teams Not to Score: Inter have kept an astonishing 19 clean sheets in 32 matches so far this season, meaning that they’ve stopped their opponents from scoring 59.37% of the time. While Atletico are the second-highest scorers in this season’s UCL so far, they’ve struck just seven goals in their last seven matches in all competitions and have recently lost top scorer Alvaro Morata to a knee injury. So, I think there’s value in backing both teams not to score at a price of 1.85 with Betiton.
- Tip 2: Back Inter to Win With Under 2.5 Goals Scored: Atletico have also lost eight games on the road this season, while they’ve failed to score in five matches away from home. They also tend to adopt a more defensive outlook against elite-level opposition. Inter’s form at the San Siro has been formidable too, with the side having lost two of their 15 home matches in all competitions and conceded just nine goals. They’ve also kept nine clean sheets in front of their home fans, so get on Inter to win with under 2.5 goals scored at a price of 3.10 with Betway.
- Tip 3: Back the Draw at Half-Time: Despite their comfortable passage into the round of 16, Inter have been incredibly slow starters in this season’s Champions League games. In fact, they’ve scored just a single goal and conceded four during the opening 45 minutes of matches, but struck five goals without reply in the final 30 minutes. Given this and Atletico’s notoriously well-organised and stubborn defence, there may be some value in backing the draw at half-time at a price of 2.10 with Betway.
1️⃣ Inter Update
While Inter’s sole defeat in their last 25 matches was administered by Bologna at the San Siro (in a Coppa Italia round of 16 tie), the team has been enduringly consistent both home and away in 2023/24. Inzaghi’s men have also won all seven of their games in all competitions since the beginning of the year, as they’ve opened up a seven-point lead at the top of Serie A and retained the Supercoppa Italiana. Interestingly, they’ve also lost just one of their previous 13 Champions League matches since November 2022, with this coming in the 2022/23 final at the hands of treble winners Manchester City.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Roma 2 Inter 4 | 10.02.24 Serie A |
| Inter 1 Juventus 0 | 04.02.24 Serie A |
| Fiorentina 0 Inter 1 | 28.01.24 Serie A |
| Napoli 0 Inter 1 | 22.01.24 Supercoppa Italiana |
| Inter 3 Lazio 0 | 19.01.24 Supercoppa Italiana |
Inter may welcome back midfielder Davide Frattesi in time for the visit of Atletico, with the 24-year-old back in light training after suffering a knock. However, this first leg clash may come a little too soon for centre-back Francesco Acerbi, as he continues his recovery from a calf injury. Experienced wideman Juan Cuadrado remains Inter’s only long-term absentee, with the Colombian having recently undergone Achilles tendon surgery.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Davide Frattesi | Knock |
| Francesco Acerbi | Calf Injury |
| Juan Cuadrado | Achilles Tendon Surgery |
2️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update
Atletico have played 11 matches since the beginning of 2024, winning six and losing four of these encounters. While they’ve scored 20 times during this sequence, they’ve also shipped 16 goals, including four at Girona on January 3rd and five against bitter rivals Real in the Supercopa de España semi-finals. Their defensive vulnerabilities may be further compounded by the loss of Alvaro Morata to a knee injury, which he picked up during a 1-0 defeat against Sevilla and could keep him out for six weeks or more. Remember, Morata has scored 19 goals in 33 matches for Atléti in all competitions this season, including five UCL goals from an xG of just 3.2.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Sevilla 1 Atletico Madrid 0 | 11.02.24 La Liga |
| Atletico Madrid 0 Athletic Bilbao 1 | 07.02.24 Copa del Rey |
| Real Madrid 1 Atletico Madrid 1 | 04.02.24 La Liga |
| Atletico Madrid 2 Rayo Vallecano 1 | 31.01.24 La Liga |
| Atletico Madrid 2 Valencia 0 | 28.01.24 La Liga |
Morata’s injury has been confirmed as an inner knee ligament stretch, which it could keep him sidelined until the end of March. He joins Thomas Lemar (Achilles tendon rupture), Marcos Paulo (cruciate ligament surgery) and César Azpilicueta (meniscus tear) on Atletico’s injury list, with all of these players expected to remain unavailable until late March or early April. However, centre-back José María Giménez may be fit again after recovering from a hamstring strain, although the trip to Inter may come a little too soon for him.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Alvaro Morata | Knee Injury |
| Thomas Lemar | Achilles Tendon Rupture |
| Marcos Paulo | Cruciate Ligament Surgery |
| César Azpilicueta | Meniscus Tear |
| José María Giménez | Hamstring Injury |
👕 Inter vs Atletico Madrid - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Inter Milan 3-5-2 | Atletico Madrid 3-5-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | J. Oblak | Y. Sommer | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | A. Witsel | B. Pavard | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Gabriel | S. de Vrij | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | M. Hermoso | A. Bastoni | Left Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | M. Llorente | M. Darmian | Right Wing Back |
| Midfielder | R. De Paul | N. Barella | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Koke | H. Çalhanoğlu | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | P. Barrios | H. Mkhitaryan | Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | S. Lino | F. Dimarco | Left Wing Back |
| Striker | M. Depay | M. Thuram | Striker |
| Striker | A. Griezmann | L. Martinez | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
