FC Porto v Arsenal-->FC Porto v Arsenal: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Porto v Arsenal UCL Prediction

Arsenal and Porto have met six times in UEFA Champions League history, with the Gunners winning three of these matches and the Dragons prevailing twice. However, Arsenal have never beaten Porto at the Estádio do Dragão in the UCL, while they lost in their last visit there in the first leg of another round of 16 tie on 17th February 2010.

In terms of this year’s Champions League, both Arsenal and Porto have been formidable attacking forces. The Gunners’ tally of 16 goals is bettered only by Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid. They’ve also outperformed their xG value (10.7) by an impressive +5.3 goals while producing a tournament-high goal-to-shot ratio of 0.19.

As for Porto, they scored 15 goals during the group stages from an xG of just 9.8. However, they also conceded eight times in their Group stage games (compared to just four for the Gunners), while their penchant for playing out from the back contributed to a total of four errors that led to an opponent’s shot on goal.

Arsenal have also won 15 tackles in the final third in this season’s Champions League and are renowned for their counter-pressing, so Porto may be particularly vulnerable during defensive transitions. The Gunners are also in red-hot form having won four successive matches and scored 16 goals during this sequence, so I’m tipping them for the win here.

💯 Porto v Arsenal Match Odds

The sportsbooks featured at Betinireland have all made Arsenal favourites to win at the Estádio do Dragão, while pricing up a huge range of additional markets such as BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the first leg. So, let’s take a closer look at the latest Porto v Arsenal match odds!

🏅 Porto v Arsenal: Match Winner

The Gunners can be backed at around 1.68 to defeat Porto, implying a 59.52% probability of an away win in the first leg. Alternatively, you can bet on Porto to triumph at odds of 4.75, which suggests that they have just a 21.05% chance of taking a lead to the Emirates on Tuesday, 12th March.

Team
FC Porto to Win	5.00	4.75	4.55	5.00	4.75
Arsenal to Win	1.67	1.73	1.68	1.70	1.70
Draw	3.60	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.60

⚽ Porto v Arsenal: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 16 of Porto’s 33 matches in all competitions this season, with the Dragons drawing five blanks and keeping 12 clean sheets (including one in the Champions League). Both sides have also found the net in exactly half of the Gunners’ 34 matches this season, with Mikel Arteta’s men failing to score on just four occasions and keeping a total of 13 clean sheets.

Team
Yes	1.80	1.88	1.78	1.85	1.83
No	1.91	1.91	1.86	1.83	1.83

🥅 Porto v Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 67 matches contested by both Porto and Arsenal in 2023/24 have produced a total of 197 goals, at a rate of 2.94 per game. Remember, these sides also scored a combined 31 goals in 12 group stage matches, while they’re both among the top three performing teams in the UCL when it comes to the ratio of goals scored to shots attempted.

Team
Over 2.5 Goals	1.87	1.91	1.88	1.91	1.91
Under 2.5 Goals	1.83	1.88	1.76	1.80	1.80

1️⃣ FC Porto Update

While Porto have been defeated eight times in total through 2023/24, only two of these losses have come at home. One of these came during the group stage as they were defeated 1-0 by Barcelona, but the Dragons more than held their own against the Catalan giants and were unfortunate not to claim a point in the end. Since the beginning of 2024, Porto have lost just one of their seven matches too, while they’ve managed to score 17 goals and concede just five during this sequence. Brazilian forward Evanilson should also be fit to start in Portugal after a recent injury concern.

With Evanilson back in the fold, Porto are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Arsenal. However, Ivan Marcano remains a long-term absentee with an ACL injury, while winger Gabriel Veron is a significant doubt with an Achilles tendon complaint.

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

The Gunners have now fully recovered from their wobbles over the festive period, winning four consecutive Premier League matches while plundering an impressive 16 goals. This sequence included a pitch-perfect performance at West Ham last time out, which helped the Gunners to record a 6-0 win and move just two points off the top of the table. Arsenal’s recent run of form has also seen Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli return to their very best, with these two producing eight goal contributions (seven goals and one assist) in the last four games. They’ll certainly pose a direct threat at the Estádio do Dragão too.

Both Gabriel Jesus (persistent knee problems) and full-back Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf) could miss out in Portugal, while Fabio Viera is still sidelined after undergoing groin surgery. Thomas Partey is also expected to be unavailable with an ongoing hamstring injury, and while Jurrien Timber is nearing a return from a cruciate ligament tear, the trip to Porto will come too soon for the defender.

👕 FC Porto vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.