FC Porto v Arsenal-->FC Porto v Arsenal: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

porto-vs-arsenal-ucl-prediction porto-vs-arsenal-ucl-prediction
TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 21 Feb 24
PredictionArsenal to win
Arsenal to win
The best odds
Odds : 1.73
Bet €100 and win €173 if Arsenal win.
€50+ 50 Free Spins
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if Arsenal win.
Mr Mega Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if Arsenal win.

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porto-vs-arsenal-champions-league porto-vs-arsenal-champions-league

Porto’s qualification for the Champions League round of 16 was only achieved on matchday six, following a thrilling 5-3 over rivals Shakhtar Donetsk (who subsequently dropped into the Europa League). While Arsenal’s passage into the knockout stages was far more convincing, however, Porto have only lost twice at home in all competitions through 2023/24. The Gunners also dropped points in Lens and Eindhoven during the group stage and will be wary of what’s sure to be a hostile atmosphere at the Estádio do Dragão. But which team will win here, and how are the best betting sites pricing all potential match outcomes?

🏆 Porto v Arsenal UCL Prediction

Arsenal and Porto have met six times in UEFA Champions League history, with the Gunners winning three of these matches and the Dragons prevailing twice. However, Arsenal have never beaten Porto at the Estádio do Dragão in the UCL, while they lost in their last visit there in the first leg of another round of 16 tie on 17th February 2010.

In terms of this year’s Champions League, both Arsenal and Porto have been formidable attacking forces. The Gunners’ tally of 16 goals is bettered only by Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid. They’ve also outperformed their xG value (10.7) by an impressive +5.3 goals while producing a tournament-high goal-to-shot ratio of 0.19.

As for Porto, they scored 15 goals during the group stages from an xG of just 9.8. However, they also conceded eight times in their Group stage games (compared to just four for the Gunners), while their penchant for playing out from the back contributed to a total of four errors that led to an opponent’s shot on goal.

Arsenal have also won 15 tackles in the final third in this season’s Champions League and are renowned for their counter-pressing, so Porto may be particularly vulnerable during defensive transitions. The Gunners are also in red-hot form having won four successive matches and scored 16 goals during this sequence, so I’m tipping them for the win here.

My Prediction: 🏆 Porto 1 – 2 Arsenal ⚽

💯 Porto v Arsenal Match Odds

The sportsbooks featured at Betinireland have all made Arsenal favourites to win at the Estádio do Dragão, while pricing up a huge range of additional markets such as BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored in the first leg. So, let’s take a closer look at the latest Porto v Arsenal match odds!

🏅 Porto v Arsenal: Match Winner

The Gunners can be backed at around 1.68 to defeat Porto, implying a 59.52% probability of an away win in the first leg. Alternatively, you can bet on Porto to triumph at odds of 4.75, which suggests that they have just a 21.05% chance of taking a lead to the Emirates on Tuesday, 12th March.

betway-logo betway-logo
FC Porto to Win5.004.754.555.004.75
Arsenal to Win1.671.731.681.701.70

⚽ Porto v Arsenal: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 16 of Porto’s 33 matches in all competitions this season, with the Dragons drawing five blanks and keeping 12 clean sheets (including one in the Champions League). Both sides have also found the net in exactly half of the Gunners’ 34 matches this season, with Mikel Arteta’s men failing to score on just four occasions and keeping a total of 13 clean sheets.

betway-logo betway-logo

🥅 Porto v Arsenal: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 67 matches contested by both Porto and Arsenal in 2023/24 have produced a total of 197 goals, at a rate of 2.94 per game. Remember, these sides also scored a combined 31 goals in 12 group stage matches, while they’re both among the top three performing teams in the UCL when it comes to the ratio of goals scored to shots attempted.

betway-logo betway-logo
Over 2.5 Goals1.871.911.881.911.91
Under 2.5 Goals1.831.881.761.801.80

✔️ Porto v Arsenal - Betting Tips

While matched betting is a common use of free bets at this stage of the Champions League, Arsenal’s status as heavy betting favourites means that it’s less viable in this instance. So, here are some alternative wagering tips to keep in mind as a punter!

  • Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The over/under odds actually imply a slightly higher probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in the first leg between Porto and Arsenal. However, these two sides dramatically outperformed their respective xG values during the UCL group stage, while the matches they’ve contested have yielded an impressive 2.94 goals per 90 minutes. Both teams will virtually be at full strength too, so there’s value in backing over 2.5 being scored in the game at the competitive price of 1.91 with Mr Mega Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: While there’s little value to be found in backing the Gunners to win outright, strategic combination betting will unlock incrementally higher returns. For example, both sides have shown a ruthless cutting edge in attack in Europe this season, while the BTTS odds imply a 55.55% probability of Porto and Arsenal scoring at the Estádio do Dragão. So, get on Arsenal to win and both teams to score at a [price of 3.75 with Betway.
  • Tip 3: Back Bukayo Saka as an Anytime Goalscorer: Precocious winger Bukayo Saka remains Arsenal’s second-highest Champions League scorer so far in 2023/24 (three goals), while he also scored against all three Group B opponents. He’s also the Gunners’ top scorer in all competitions, hitting 13 goals in 31 appearances in total. Porto will also have to be particularly wary given their high defensive line and desire to control games in the opposition’s half, so there may be value in backing Saka as an anytime scorer at a price of 1.83 with 1Bet Sports.

1️⃣ FC Porto Update

While Porto have been defeated eight times in total through 2023/24, only two of these losses have come at home. One of these came during the group stage as they were defeated 1-0 by Barcelona, but the Dragons more than held their own against the Catalan giants and were unfortunate not to claim a point in the end. Since the beginning of 2024, Porto have lost just one of their seven matches too, while they’ve managed to score 17 goals and concede just five during this sequence. Brazilian forward Evanilson should also be fit to start in Portugal after a recent injury concern.

Last 5 Games
Arouca 3
Porto 2
Liga Portugal
Porto 0
Rio Ave 0
Liga Portugal
Farense 1
Portugal 3
Liga Portugal
Porto 5
Moreirense 0
Liga Portugal
Porto 2
Braga 0
Liga Portugal

With Evanilson back in the fold, Porto are virtually at full strength ahead of the visit of Arsenal. However, Ivan Marcano remains a long-term absentee with an ACL injury, while winger Gabriel Veron is a significant doubt with an Achilles tendon complaint.

Ivan MarcanoACL injury
Gabriel VeronAchilles Tendon Injury

2️⃣ Arsenal Update

The Gunners have now fully recovered from their wobbles over the festive period, winning four consecutive Premier League matches while plundering an impressive 16 goals. This sequence included a pitch-perfect performance at West Ham last time out, which helped the Gunners to record a 6-0 win and move just two points off the top of the table. Arsenal’s recent run of form has also seen Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli return to their very best, with these two producing eight goal contributions (seven goals and one assist) in the last four games. They’ll certainly pose a direct threat at the Estádio do Dragão too.

Last 5 Games
West Ham 0
Arsenal 6
Premier League
Arsenal 3
Liverpool 1
Premier League
Nottingham Forest 1
Arsenal 2
Premier League
Arsenal 5
Crystal Palace 0
Premier League
Arsenal 0
Liverpool 2
FA Cup

Both Gabriel Jesus (persistent knee problems) and full-back Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf) could miss out in Portugal, while Fabio Viera is still sidelined after undergoing groin surgery. Thomas Partey is also expected to be unavailable with an ongoing hamstring injury, and while Jurrien Timber is nearing a return from a cruciate ligament tear, the trip to Porto will come too soon for the defender.

Gabriel JesusKnee Injury
Oleksandr ZinchenkoCalf Injury
Fabio VieraGroin Surgery
Thomas ParteyHamstring Injury
Jurrien TimberCruciate Ligament Tear

👕 FC Porto vs Arsenal - Potential Lineups

Pos. FC Porto
Goalkeeper D. Costa D. Raya Goalkeeper
Right Back João Mário B. White Right Back
Centre Back Pepe Gabriel Centre Back
Centre Back F. Cardoso W. Saliba Centre Back
Left Back Wendell J. Kiwior Left Back
Midfielder A. Varela M. Ødegaard Midfielder
Midfielder N. Gonzalez Jorginho Midfielder
Midfielder Pepê D. Rice Midfielder
Wide Forward F. Conceição B. Saka Wide Forward
Striker Evanilson K. Havertz Striker
Wide Forward Galeno G. Martinelli Wide Forward

Arsenal to win

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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