Dortmund vs Real Madrid: Predictions & Tips

🏆 Dortmund vs Real Madrid Prediction

If Dortmund are to overcome Madrid at Wembley, they’ll have to rely on the same defensive organisation and resilience that they showcased against PSG in the last four. In fact, Dortmund have been defensively resolute throughout their UCL campaign, with no other team winning more tackles (142) or attempting more in the defensive third (149) than ‘die Schwarzgelben’.

They’ve also recovered a tournament high 529 balls in 2023/24, so Madrid will also have to contend with Dortmund’s high energy and aggressive counter-pressing. Undoubtedly, Dortmund will be set up to defend deep and counterattack against Los Blancos, but it’s interesting to note that Madrid themselves have favoured a mid-block and relied heavily on the break during the UCL knockout stages.

Madrid average just 52.8% possession per 90 in this season’s Champions League, for example, while they’ve produced five defensive actions that have led to an attempt on goal during the competition. So, we could well see a game of cat-and-mouse unfold at Wembley, as neither team look to overcommit when in possession of the ball and instead aim to exploit space in transition.

The bad news for Dortmund is that Madrid have superior individual quality in the attacking third and one of the best transitional players in the world in Vinicius Júnior. The Brazilian winger has successfully completed 29 take-ons in this season’s UCL (only three players have completed more), while also recording 62 progressive carries. Jude Bellingham is also a strong runner in transition and has covered a progressive carrying distance of 1,267 yards during the tournament.

Because of this, I’m tipping Madrid to produce a largely controlled and clinical performance that puts Dortmund to the sword and clinches an incredible 15th Champions League crown.

💯 Dortmund vs Real Madrid Match Odds

The Champions League final unlocks a diverse selection of betting markets, including widely available team and player props. In addition to picking the winner here, you can also wager on both teams to score (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during 90 minutes. But how are each of these betting markets being priced at the time of writing?

🏅 Dortmund vs Real Madrid: Match Winner

It should come as no surprise that Madrid are the heavy betting favourites to defeat Dortmund at Wembley. In fact, Los Blancos can be backed at an average price of 1.57, implying a 63.69% probability of a win for the La Liga side. Conversely, Dortmund are priced at around 5.00 to win just their second UEFA Champions League title, suggesting that they have a 20% chance of triumphing. The draw is statistically more likely than a Dortmund win, with a price of 4.15 implying a 24.09% probability of the match being tied after 90 minutes.

Team
Dortmund to Win	4.75	4.80	5.00	5.00	5.33
Real Madrid to Win	1.62	1.62	1.56	1.56	1.57
Draw	4.00	3.90	4.15	4.15	4.25

⚽ Dortmund vs Real Madrid: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in nine of Real Madrid’s 12 Champions League matches in 2023/24 (75%), with Los Blancos keeping three clean sheets and finding the net in every single game during the tournament. Conversely, both sides have scored in just five of Dortmund’s 12 UCL contests (42%), with Edin Terzić’s side keeping an impressive six clean sheets and failing to score twice.

Yes/No
Yes	1.75	1.70	1.69	1.69	1.75
No	2.05	2.05	2.01	2.01	2.05

🥅 Dortmund vs Real Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 12 UCL matches contested by Los Blancos have yielded a total of 41 goals, at the impressive rate of 3.41 per game. Madrid have scored 26 of these goals at a rate of 2.16 per 90 minutes. As for Dortmund, their 12 matches have produced just 26 goals at an average of 2.16 per 90. The Bundesliga side have scored 17 times and conceded on nine occasions at a rate of 0.75 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.67	1.67	1.66	1.66	1.66
Under 2.5 Goals	2.10	2.20	2.06	2.06	2.16

1️⃣ Dortmund Update

Dortmund ultimately clinched fifth place in this season’s Bundesliga, which was enough to clinch Champions League football in 2024/25 due to Germany’s UEFA co-efficient ranking. However, they only won three of their final seven league matches during the campaign, losing against VfB Stuttgart, RB Leipzig and even Mainz 05 as part of this sequence. Although Dortmund were undoubtedly focused on their two-legged semi-final tie against PSG earlier this month and may have seen their league form suffer as a result, they’ve struggled defensively of late and shipped 11 goals since April 6th. They’ll need to improve on this when they take on Madrid.

Dortmund are sweating on the fitness of towering forward Sebastien Haller ahead of the UCL final, as he continues to struggle with an ankle injury. Even if he’s passed fit, Niclas Füllkrug may lead the line from the start at Wembley. Julien Duranville (muscle injury) and Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament) are both expected to miss out in London, while Abdoulaye Kamara remains absent with a knock. However, full back Mateu Morey should be available as he recovers from a cold.

2️⃣ Real Madrid Update

Madrid have enjoyed an incredible season both at home and abroad, winning won 40 of the 53 matches they’ve contested in all competitions (76%). They’ve lost just twice too, with bitter rivals Atletico the only team to defeat them in the 2023/24 campaign so far. The club remain unbeaten in their 12 Champions League encounters, although they’ve drawn four of their six knockout matches and required penalties to eliminate 2023 winners Manchester City. English midfielder Jude Bellingham has stared for Los Blancos in the UCL this season, scoring four goals (from an xG of just 2.8) and contributing four assists in 10 appearances.

The return of the aforementioned Militao and keeper Courtois means that Madrid are virtually at full strength ahead of the UCL final. However, Los Blancos have been rocked slightly by a foot injury to French midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni, with the former Monaco man having been ruled out of contention. Madrid’s only other absentee remains experienced defender David Alaba, who has only just returned to training after a serious ACL injury.

👕 Dortmund vs Real Madrid Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.