Borussia Dortmund vs PSG: Prediction & Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 1st May 24 |
| Prediction | PSG To Win! |
| Odds | @2.38 |
| Bookmaker | 1Bet Sports |
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This is perhaps the most fascinating Champions League semi-final tie in 2023/24, with Borussia Dortmund having not progressed beyond the last four since 2012/13. Although PSG made a more recent final appearance in the 2019/20 season, this is only the third time the Parisians have advanced beyond the quarterfinal stage in 11 attempts. So, both sides will spy a unique opportunity to qualify for a UCL final this season and will be desperate to leave the Westfalenstadion with a first-leg lead. But which team do I think will win here, and how are Ireland’s best betting sites pricing the potential match outcomes?
🏆 Dortmund vs PSG Prediction
These two sides have now met four times in UEFA Champions League history, including two group-stage encounters earlier this season. PSG recorded a 2-0 win at the Parc des Princes on matchday one and have two historical head-to-head victories over Dortmund, with the Bundesliga outfit winning once and holding the Parisians to a 1-1 draw in December.
In terms of playing styles, PSG like to dominate the ball and have averaged 64.5% possession per 90 minutes in this season’s Champions League. Conversely, Dortmund have averaged just 47.5% possession per 90 during the campaign and are a little more direct in their attacking transitions. ‘The BVB’ have also won a tournament-high 125 tackles and attempted 122 in the defensive third alone, highlighting their tenacity and propensity to recover the ball deep before launching counterattacks.
So, although Dortmund averaged 59.5% possession during their two-legged quarterfinal against Atletico Madrid, they were chasing the game for much of the tie, while Los Colchoneros often sit back against high-calibre opposition. I, therefore, expect PSG to take control of the ball and dominate proceedings just as they did at the Westfalenstadion in December when Luis Enrique’s team claimed a 60% share of possession and struck 18 attempts at goal (compared to 10 for Dortmund).
This will suit a PSG side that has produced 30.40 shot-creating actions per 90 and accumulated an xG of 19.5. The Parisians also boast the tournament’s top scorer in Kylian Mbappe, while winger Ousmane Dembele has contributed two assists and seven goal-creating actions in the tournament so far. So, I’m tipping PSG to edge this match and take a lead into the second leg, although Dortmund will score in front of their own fans.
My Prediction: 🏆 Dortmund 1 – 2 PSG ⚽
💯 Dortmund vs PSG Match Odds
Both Dortmund and PSG will fancy their chances of winning this semi-final tie, despite the Parisians’ superior individual quality and the fact that Luis Enrique’s men have only lost twice on the road all season. The good news is that you can access a number of different betting markets when wagering on the first leg, including the match winner or result, both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored.
🏅 Dortmund vs PSG: Match Winner
Despite Dortmund having a home advantage in the first leg, they’re the betting underdogs to defeat PSG. In fact, their pre-game odds of 2.66 imply just a 37.59% probability of Edin Terzić’s side prevailing. Conversely, you can back PSG to win at around 2.38, so they have a 42.01% chance of winning the game and taking a lead back to the Parc des Princes.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund to Win | 2.70 | 2.63 | 2.66 | 2.66 | 2.70 |
| PSG to Win | 2.38 | 2.38 | 2.32 | 2.30 | 2.38 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.60 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
⚽ Dortmund vs PSG: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in 11 of Dortmund’s 21 home matches in all competitions this season (52%), with the Bundesliga team keeping eight clean sheets at the Westfalenstadion and drawing three blanks. Both sides have found the net in 14 of PSG’s 22 away matches in 2023/24 (64%). Enrique’s men have kept eight clean sheets on the road in total, while failing to score on two separate occasions.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.36 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.40 |
| No | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.75 |
🥅 Dortmund vs PSG: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Dortmund’s 21 home matches have yielded 60 goals in total this season, at a rate of 2.85 per game. Worryingly for the Bundesliga side, they’ve conceded 24 of these goals at a rate of 1.14 per 90 minutes. As for PSG, their 22 matches on the road have produced a whopping 77 goals at the much higher rate of 3.50 per 90. They’ve also scored 57 times away from home at a rate of 2.59 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.44 | 1.50 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.50 | 2.40 | 2.42 | 2.42 | 2.50 |
✔️ Dortmund vs PSG - Betting Tips
You can draw a great deal of insight from the pre-game odds, which imply a high probability of both teams scoring at the Westfalenstadion and over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes. But how can you navigate these markets and make the most of your starting bankroll or free bets? Here are some betting tips to keep in mind.
- Tip 1: Back PSG to Win Outright: Although PSG are the narrow favourites to defeat Dortmund and their odds imply a 42.01% probability of an away victory, the bookies are hedging their bets slightly when it comes to the win market. This has much to do with the fact that Dortmund are unbeaten in 10 UCL home matches since November 2021, but the Parisians have only lost twice away all season and are unbeaten in 15 on the road since November 7th. So, there’s value in backing PSG to win outright, especially at the competitive price of 2.38 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Dortmund to Score First: Interestingly, PSG have fallen behind in three of their five Champions League away matches in 2023/24, while they’ve conceded more goals (six) than they’ve scored (four) during the first 45 minutes of games. Conversely, Dortmund are much stronger starters in the UCL and have scored seven goals while conceding just three during the same period. The impassioned Westfalenstadion crowd will also encourage them to pressurise their opponents from the start, so there’s value in backing Dortmund to score first here at a price of 2.05 with Royalist Play.
- Tip 3: Back PSG to Win and Both Teams to Score: While PSG are only the narrow favourites to win in Dortmund, the odds imply a 71.42% of both teams scoring during the 90 minutes. It’s incredible to think that PSG have only draw two blanks on the road this season, while they’ve scored in 19 consecutive away matches since September 30th. Dortmund have also scored in 18 of their 21 home games in all competitions (85.71%), including their previous four in the Champions League. Interestingly, you can back PSG to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.90 with Mr Mega Sports.
1️⃣ Dortmund Update
Dortmund were superb in their 4-2 win over Atletico in the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal, with midfielder Marcel Sabitzer contributing two assists and the decisive goal at the Westfalenstadion. In doing so, he became the first Austrian to produce three direct goal involvements in a UCL knockout game since 2004, while he took his total tally of tournament assists for the season to five. Overall, the BVB have lost just two of their last 10 matches in all competitions since February 25th, winning seven of these games and holding Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen to a draw last time out.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Dortmund 1 Bayer Leverkusen 1 | 21.04.24 Bundesliga |
| Dortmund 4 Atletico Madrid 2 | 16.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Mönchengladbach 1 Dortmund 2 | 13.04.24 Bundesliga |
| Atletico 2 Dortmund 1 | 10.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Dortmund 0 VfB Stuttgart 1 | 06.04.24 Bundesliga |
Full-back Ian Maatsen (who scored superbly in the 4-2 over Atletico) is currently a doubt with a hip injury, but he’s expected to be fit for the visit of PSG. However, Donyell Malen (thigh injury) and fellow forward Sebastien Haller (ankle) have been ruled out, while Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament injury) and Abdoulaye Kamara (muscle) remain longer-term absentees.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Sebastien Haller | Ankle Injury |
| Ian Maatsen | Hip Injury |
| Ramy Bensebaini | Inner Ligament Injury |
| Donyell Malen | Thigh Injury |
| Abdoulaye Kamara | Knock |
2️⃣ PSG Update
As usual, PSG are coasting to the title in Ligue 1, with Luis Enrique’s side currently 11 points clear with only 12 left to play for. This will enable them to focus intently on their Champions League efforts, while simultaneously rotating key players such as Kylian Mbappe, Ousmane Dembele and influential captain Marquinhos. The Parisians were also imperious when defeating Barcelona 4-1 at the Nou Camp in the quarterfinals, which extended their unbeaten run on the road to 14 in all competitions (this now stands at 15). Remember, they’ve already faced Dortmund at the Westfalenstadion this season too, dominating for much of the 90 minutes and accumulating an xG of 2.63 in a 1-1 draw.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Lorient 1 PSG 4 | 24.04.24 Ligue 1 |
| PSG 4 Lyon 1 | 21.04.24 Ligue 1 |
| Barcelona 1 PSG 4 | 16.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| PSG 2 Barcelona 3 | 10.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| PSG 1 Clermont Foot 1 | 06.04.24 Ligue 1 |
PSG may be without full-back Layvin Kurzawa in Dortmund, as he completes his recovery from a back injury. However, he’s widely expected to be fit in time for the second leg. Defender Presnel Kimpembe is also nearing his return after a serious Achilles tendon injury, but this match will come a little too soon for him. Keeper Sergio Rice remains a long-term absentee after suffering a serious head injury earlier in the season.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Layvin Kurzawa | Back Injury |
| Sergio Rico | Head Injury |
| Presnel Kimpembe | Achilles Tendon Injury |
👕 Dortmund vs PSG Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Dortmund 4-3-3 | PSG 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | G. Kobel | G. Donnarumma | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Ryerson | A. Hakimi | Right Back |
| Centre Back | M. Hummels | Marquinhos | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | N. Schlotterbeck | L. Hernandez | Centre Back |
| Left Back | I. Maatsen | N. Mendes | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Sabitzer | W. Zaire-Emery | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | E. Can | Vitinha | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | J. Brandt | F. Ruiz | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | J. Sancho | O. Dembele | Wide Forward |
| Striker | N. Füllkrug | K. Mbappe | Striker |
| Wide Forward | K. Adeyemi | B. Barcola | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
