Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

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TournamentChampions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 16th April 24
PredictionAtletico To Win!
Bookmaker1Bet Sports
Atletico To Win!
The best odds
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 3.00
Bet €100 and win €300 if Atletico win.

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Bet €100 and win €300 if Atletico win.
Odds : 3.00
Bet €100 and win €300 if Atletico win.
borussia-v-atletico-logo borussia-v-atletico-logo

Atletico made the most of a blistering start and Dortmund’s benevolence in the first leg of this quarter-final contest, but the Bundesliga side’s strong second-half showing has left the tie evenly poised. However, Atletico will take a potentially pivotal 2-1 advantage to the Westfalenstadion, as they look to reach the Champions League last four for the fourth time in 11 seasons. The good news for Dortmund is that Atletico have struggled on the road in 2023/24, while Dortmund have won 11 of their 19 home games in all competitions. But which side will prevail here and book a semi-final clash with either Barcelona or PSG?

🏆 Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Atletico made a typically bullish start at the Estadio Metropolitano in the first leg, scoring twice in the first 32 minutes to open up a commanding lead. Despite Dortmund’s subsequent improvement and Sebastian Haller’s late goal, Diego Simeone’s men remained dangerous throughout, accumulating an xG of 2.16 (compared to just 0.95) from just 33% possession.

This is typical of Atletico’s UCL campaign, which has seen them average just 49.2% possession per 90 minutes and rank 14th in the competition by this metric. However, their tally of 49 shots on target is the fourth highest in the 2023/24 Champions League, while only Man United and Arsenal have bettered their goals-per-shot ratio of 0.15.

Antoine Griezmann (six) and Alvaro Morata (five) have also scored 11 UCL goals for Atletico from a combined xG of just 8.1 this season. This has helped ‘Colchoneros’ to outperform their collective xG 14.8 by +4.2 goals, so they won’t need too many chances to secure a second-leg win in Germany. This ruthlessness could help to negate Dortmund’s excellent defence, which has made a tournament-high 203 tackles and won 57.9% of these.

Atletico are also defensively well-organised and incredibly experienced, while they’ve only lost one of their previous nine Champions League matches. So, despite their struggles on the road, I expect them to edge another close game in Germany and ultimately book their place in the final four.

My Prediction: 🏆 Dortmund 1 – 2 Atletico Madrid ⚽

💯 Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid Match Odds

Ireland’s best betting sites have already published odds across a broad range of markets ahead of this game, including the match winner, both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. So, let’s take a closer look at these markets and the level of value that they offer.

🏅 Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid: Match Winner

Home advantage has helped to make Dortmund favourites to defeat Atletico in the second leg, at least during the 90 minutes. You can back Edin Terzić’s team to prevail at around 2.20, implying a 45.45% probability of a home win. Conversely, you can back Atletico to triumph at odds of 3.00, so they have a 33.33% chance of recording a decisive away victory. However, Atletico are the overwhelming favourites to reach the last four, with their odds of 1.43 affording them a 69.93% chance of winning this quarterfinal tie.

Borussia Dortmund to Win2.
Atletico Madrid to Win3.

⚽ Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in just nine of Dortmund’s 19 home matches in all competitions this season (47%), with the Bundesliga outfit keeping eight clean sheets and drawing three blanks at the Westfalenstadion. Both sides have found the net in nine of Atletico’s 21 away games in 2023/24 (43%), although Simeone’s men have only kept five clean sheets and failed to score on eight occasions.


🥅 Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Dortmund’s 19 home matches this season have also yielded a total of 54 goals, at a rate of 2.84 per game. ‘Die Schwarzgelben’ have scored 33 of these goals at a rate of 1.73 per 90 minutes. Interestingly, Atletico’s 21 games on the road have produced 59 goals at the slightly lower rate of 2.80 per 90. However, they’ve conceded 28 goals away from home at a rate of 1.33 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.621.621.611.611.67
Under 2.5 Goals2.

✔️Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid - Betting Tips

Although Dortmund are the narrow favourites to win the second leg, the bookmakers also think that Atletico will reach the last four. One thing’s for sure, this match is incredibly tight and difficult to call, so here are some key betting insights to help you identify value and make the most of your starting bankroll.

  • Tip 1: Back Atletico to Win Outright: Atletico have lost nine matches on the road in all competitions this season, so it’s no surprise to see them priced at 3.00 to win in Dortmund. While this implies just a 33.33% probability of an Atletico win, Simeone’s men have only lost one of their four UCL away games this season and often reserve their best performance for Europe’s premier club competition. Dortmund have also failed to progress beyond the last eight in their previous nine Champions League campaigns, falling at this stage on three separate occasions. So, consider backing Atletico to win outright at a price of 3.00 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Atletico to Win and Both Teams to Score: The odd also imply a 65.35% probability of both teams scoring at the Westfalenstadion, despite Dortmund keeping eight clean sheets here in all competitions. This may be because they’ve conceded in eight of their previous nine Bundesliga matches, whereas Atletico have found the net in four of their last five UCL away games. This contest could also become stretched as Dortmund chase the game, so get on Atletico to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 5.00 with Royalist Play.
  • Tip 3: Back the Second Half to See the Most Goals: If you’d like to utilise one of your available free bets, you could wager on the second 45 minutes to be the highest scoring half. Certainly, I expect Atletico to adopt a defensive approach relatively early on, as they encourage Dortmund to chase the game and leave space in which they can counter attack. There’s no doubt that the contest has the potential to become more open and stretched as it progresses, while you can get on this market at the competitive price of 2.10 with Mr Mega Sports.

1️⃣ Dortmund Update

Despite attempting and winning the most tackles in this season’s Champions League and completing a tournament-high 486 ball recoveries, Dortmund have only won four of their nine Champions League matches so far in 2023/24. However, they haven’t lost at home in nine UCL matches since a 3-1 defeat to Ajax on November 4th, 2021, so they’re clearly a difficult proposition at the Westfalenstadion. Overall, they’ve won six of their previous 10 games since February 20th, with Atletico one of the three teams to beat them during this period (along with 1899 Hoffenheim and VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga). So, they’re in relatively good form ahead of the visit of Atletico.

Last 5 Games
Mönchengladbach 1
Dortmund 2
Atletico 2
Dortmund 1
UEFA Champions League
Dortmund 0
VfB Stuttgart 1
Bayern 0
Dortmund 2
Dortmund 3
Eintracht Frankfurt 1

Dortmund’s first-leg goalscorer Sebastien Haller will miss the return match, having suffered a reoccurrence of the left ankle injury that has blighted his season in the weekend clash against Mönchengladbach. Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament injury) and Samuel Bamba (muscle) remain long-term absentees, as does Abdoulaye Kamara (knock). Dortmund will also assess the fitness of Jamie Bynoe-Gittens (back) and Jadon Sancho (illness) ahead of the visit of Atletico, although neither is expected to start even if they’re passed fit.

Player Reason
Sebastien Haller Ankle Injury
Jamie Bynoe-Gittens Back Injury
Jadon Sancho Illness
Ramy Bensebaini Inner Ligament Injury
Samuel Bamba Muscle Injury
Abdoulaye Kamara Knock

2️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update

Although Atletico have endured a difficult 2024 so far, they’ve only lost one of their previous five matches in all competitions. This run has seen them retain fourth place and open up a four-point lead over Athletic Bilbao in La Liga, while it has also featured consecutive Champions League wins over Inter Milan and Dortmund at the Estadio Metropolitano. However, Simeone’s men have won just one of their last seven matches on the road since January 22nd, losing at Sevilla, Cadiz, Bilbao and Inter during this troubling sequence. What’s more, they’ve conceded in every one of these matches and looked vulnerable defensively.

Last 5 Games
Atletico 3
Girona Madrid 1
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2
Dortmund 1
UEFA Champions League
Villareal 1
Atletico Madrid 2
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 0
Barcelona 3
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2
Inter Milan 1
UEFA Champions League

First-leg goalscorer Samuel Lino will miss the return match through suspension, having also picked up a booking at the Estadio Metropolitano. Dutch striker Memphis Depay was also ruled out until May with a muscle contusion, while Thomas Lemar (Achilles tendon rupture) and Vitolo (knee) are sidelined, too. However, defender José María Giménez is fit again and widely expected to start in Germany.

Player Reason
Samuel Lino Suspended
Thomas Lemar Achilles Tendon Rupture
Vitolo Knock
Memphis Depay Muscle Contusion

👕 Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid - Potential Lineups

Pos. Dortmund
Goalkeeper G. Kobel J. Oblak Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Ryerson A. Witsel Right Centre Back
Centre Back M. Hummels J. Giménez Centre Back
Centre Back N. Schlotterbeck S. Savic Left Centre Back
Left Back I. Maatsen M. Llorente Right Wing Back
Midfielder M. Sabitzer Koke Central Midfielder
Midfielder E. Can P. Barrios Central Midfielder
Midfielder F. Nmecha R. De Paul Central Midfielder
Wide Forward D. Malen R. Riquelme Left Wing Back
Striker N. Füllkrug A. Morata Striker
Wide Forward K. Adeyemi A. Griezmann Striker

Atletico To Win!

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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