Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid UCL Prediction

These two teams have contested 26 previous matches in the UEFA Champions League, with Real Madrid winning 12 of these encounters. Bayern have triumphed on 11 occasions, with a further three matches ending in draws. However, Los Blancos are unbeaten in seven UCL games against Bayern since April 17th, 2012, winning six of these fixtures (including three in Munich).

Despite their dogged defensive rearguard in the second leg of their quarterfinal victory Manchester City, Real Madrid have impressed offensively for much of their 2023/24 campaign. In fact, they’ve averaged 30.48 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes in this season’s UCL and completed 30 live passes that led to a goal. These are tournament highs among the teams left in the competition.

However, Bayern have averaged 55.90% possession per 90 in the Champions League (compared to 52.70% for Real Madrid), while the Bavarians adopt a higher press than their opponents and have attempted 23 tackles in the attacking third. So, I expect Tuchel’s team to have the majority of the ball and recover possession as high as they possibly can, as Madrid defend deeper and look to launch rapid counterattacks.

This should contribute to a classic game of cat-and-mouse, in which neither side will want to take too many risks ahead of the second leg in Madrid. Because of this, I expect Bayern and Madrid to produce a draw at the Allianz Arena, in what’s likely to be a tense and cagey tactical encounter.

💯 Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Match Odds

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🏅 Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Match Winner

Bayern haven’t lost at home in the Champions League for 15 matches since April 2021, so it’s no surprise that they’re the narrow favourites to beat Real in the first leg. You can back the Bavarians to prevail at around 2.33, implying a 42.91% probability of a home victory. Real are priced at 2.70 to triumph at the Allianz Arena, suggesting that they have a 37.03% of securing a crucial advantage ahead of the second leg. The draw is priced at 3.50 and has an implied probability of 28.57%, making it the least likely statistical outcome.

Team
Bayern Munich to Win	2.30	2.30	2.33	2.33	2.38
Arsenal to Win	2.70	2.75	2.66	2.66	2.70
Draw	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50	3.50

⚽ Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Bayern have played 21 home matches this season, with both teams finding the net in just eight of these fixtures (38%). The Bavarians have now kept 10 clean sheets in total and drawn four blanks at the Allianz Arena. Both teams have found the net in 15 of Real Madrid’s 23 away matches in 2023/24 (65%), with Los Blancos keeping eight clean sheets and scoring in every single game on the road.

Yes/No
Yes	1.55	1.55	1.50	1.50	1.50
No	2.30	2.40	2.37	2.37	2.50

🥅 Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bayern’s 21 home matches have also produced a total of 77 goals this season, at a rate of 3.66 per game. The Bavarian side have scored 59 of these goals at the impressive rate of 2.80 per 90 minutes. As for Real, their 23 away encounters have yielded 69 goals at the lower rate of exactly 3.00 per 90, while Los Blancos have conceded 24 goals at a rate of more than one per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.62	1.65	1.60	1.60	1.62
Under 2.5 Goals	2.15	2.10	2.15	2.15	2.10

1️⃣ Bayern Update

While Bayern’s Bundesliga dominance may have been decisively ended by Leverkusen, they’re firmly in the mix to win a seventh Champions League title in 2023/24. However, they’ve now lost nine of their 43 matches in all competitions this season (21%), which is more than any Bayern side since the 2014/15 campaign. However, Bayern are exceptional on their day and boast incredible individual quality, while their unbeaten run at home in the Champions League stretches back 15 matches to April 7th, 2021, when PSG prevailed 3-2 in a thrilling encounter. This will stand them in good stead when the mighty Real Madrid roll into town next week.

The precocious Jamal Musiala is a doubt with a knee injury at the time of writing, but he’s expected to be fit in time for the first leg against Madrid. Serge Gnabry (hamstring) is also back in training and is likely to be available next week. However, Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman (both groin) have been ruled out, while Sacha Boey (hip) and Gabriel Marusic (ACL) won’t return until the end of May. Both Bouna Sarr (knee) and Tarek Buchmann (hamstring) are out for the season.

2️⃣ Real Madrid Update

I’ve already touched on Real’s superb run of results this season, with Los Blancos suffering defeat just twice all season (on both occasions to bitter rivals Atletico) and only losing one of their previous 40 matches in all competitions since September 24th. This is a quite remarkable sequence, especially when considering that the team haven’t always been at their best either at home or abroad under Carlo Ancelotti. They’re also unbeaten in 10 Champions League matches in 2023/24, although they’ve drawn three of their previous four and played almost exclusively in transition during their knockout ties with both RB Leipzig and Manchester City.

Unlike Bayern, Real Madrid are virtually at full strength ahead of their visit to Munich. However, left back Ferland Mendy is a doubt with a muscle injury and is expected to miss out at the Allianz Arena, although he should be fit for the second leg. Thibaut Courtois (ACL injury) is also back in training after an extended absence, but he won’t be ready in time for the UCL semi-final first leg. Dani Carvajal will also miss out through suspension after his yellow card in the second leg against Man City.

👕 Bayern vs Real Madrid - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.