Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

bayern-vreal-madrid-logo bayern-vreal-madrid-logo
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT, 30th April 24
PredictionBack the Draw!
Odds3.50
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
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The Champions League semi-finals kick off with a heavyweight clash between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, who ended all English interest in this season’s competition by eliminating Arsenal and Manchester City respectively in the quarterfinals. Los Blancos remain on the hunt for their 15th UCL crown, while Bayern are desperate to win some silverware after Leverkusen denied them a 12th consecutive Bundesliga title. They haven’t endured a trophyless season since the 2011/12 season, which also saw the Bavarians defeated in the Champions League semi-finals by Real Madrid. But will history repeat itself in 2023/24, or can Thomas Tuchel’s men end a disappointing campaign on a high?

🏆Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid UCL Prediction

These two teams have contested 26 previous matches in the UEFA Champions League, with Real Madrid winning 12 of these encounters. Bayern have triumphed on 11 occasions, with a further three matches ending in draws. However, Los Blancos are unbeaten in seven UCL games against Bayern since April 17th, 2012, winning six of these fixtures (including three in Munich).

Despite their dogged defensive rearguard in the second leg of their quarterfinal victory Manchester City, Real Madrid have impressed offensively for much of their 2023/24 campaign. In fact, they’ve averaged 30.48 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes in this season’s UCL and completed 30 live passes that led to a goal. These are tournament highs among the teams left in the competition.

However, Bayern have averaged 55.90% possession per 90 in the Champions League (compared to 52.70% for Real Madrid), while the Bavarians adopt a higher press than their opponents and have attempted 23 tackles in the attacking third. So, I expect Tuchel’s team to have the majority of the ball and recover possession as high as they possibly can, as Madrid defend deeper and look to launch rapid counterattacks.

This should contribute to a classic game of cat-and-mouse, in which neither side will want to take too many risks ahead of the second leg in Madrid. Because of this, I expect Bayern and Madrid to produce a draw at the Allianz Arena, in what’s likely to be a tense and cagey tactical encounter.

My Prediction: 🏆 Bayern Munich 1 – 1 Real Madrid⚽

💯 Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid Match Odds

When you wager with one of Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll have access to a huge range of markets and wager types. Let’s explore these markets in more detail and analyse the latest pricing.

🏅 Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Match Winner

Bayern haven’t lost at home in the Champions League for 15 matches since April 2021, so it’s no surprise that they’re the narrow favourites to beat Real in the first leg. You can back the Bavarians to prevail at around 2.33, implying a 42.91% probability of a home victory. Real are priced at 2.70 to triumph at the Allianz Arena, suggesting that they have a 37.03% of securing a crucial advantage ahead of the second leg. The draw is priced at 3.50 and has an implied probability of 28.57%, making it the least likely statistical outcome.

Team
Bayern Munich to Win2.302.302.332.332.38
Arsenal to Win2.702.752.662.662.70
Draw3.503.503.503.503.50

⚽ Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Bayern have played 21 home matches this season, with both teams finding the net in just eight of these fixtures (38%). The Bavarians have now kept 10 clean sheets in total and drawn four blanks at the Allianz Arena. Both teams have found the net in 15 of Real Madrid’s 23 away matches in 2023/24 (65%), with Los Blancos keeping eight clean sheets and scoring in every single game on the road.

Yes/No
Yes1.551.551.501.501.50
No2.302.402.372.372.50

🥅 Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Bayern’s 21 home matches have also produced a total of 77 goals this season, at a rate of 3.66 per game. The Bavarian side have scored 59 of these goals at the impressive rate of 2.80 per 90 minutes. As for Real, their 23 away encounters have yielded 69 goals at the lower rate of exactly 3.00 per 90, while Los Blancos have conceded 24 goals at a rate of more than one per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.621.651.601.601.62
Under 2.5 Goals2.152.102.152.152.10

✔️ Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid - Betting Tips

There’s certainly a broad range of betting markets available ahead of the clash between Bayern and Arsenal, whether you want to wager using your real money balance or the available free bets on your account. So, here are some expert tips to help you select the right markets and leverage them successfully.

  • Tip 1: Back Under 2.5 Goals to be Scored: Despite the Allianz Arena seeing plenty of goals this season and the odds implying a 62.50% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes, Real Madrid have been noticeably defensive in their previous two UCL away matches. I expect them to adopt a similar approach in Munich, as they cede possession and territory to their opponents while looking to strike in transition. Bayern also looked tentative at home during their 1-0 win over Arsenal in the last eight, so I think there’s value in backing under 2.5 goals being scored at a price of 2.15 with Betiton Sport.
  • Tip 2: Back the Draw: While the draw is the statistically least likely outcome with an implied probability of just 28.57%, this doesn’t take into account the typically tight and tense nature of Champions League semi-finals. Madrid have also drawn three of their four UCL knockout matches so far in 2023/24, including their 1-1 draw at the Etihad last time out. Bayern also drew 2-2 with Arsenal in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie and haven’t been beaten at home in the Champions League in three years. Real have also lost just two of their 46 matches in all competitions this season, so consider backing the draw at the competitive price of 3.50 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back the Draw and Both Teams to Score: I also expect both teams to score at the Allianz Arena, especially as Real have found the net in every single one of their 23 away matches in all competitions this season. As for Thomas Tuchel’s men, they’ve scored in 17 of their 21 home games in 2023/24 (81%), while they boast the competition’s second-highest scorer in Harry Kane. The English striker has scored seven UCL goals from 26 attempts and an individual xG of 5.5, with only Kylian Mbappe proving more prolific. So, why not create a combination bet that backs the draw and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 4.50 with Royalist Sports.

1️⃣ Bayern Update

While Bayern’s Bundesliga dominance may have been decisively ended by Leverkusen, they’re firmly in the mix to win a seventh Champions League title in 2023/24. However, they’ve now lost nine of their 43 matches in all competitions this season (21%), which is more than any Bayern side since the 2014/15 campaign. However, Bayern are exceptional on their day and boast incredible individual quality, while their unbeaten run at home in the Champions League stretches back 15 matches to April 7th, 2021, when PSG prevailed 3-2 in a thrilling encounter. This will stand them in good stead when the mighty Real Madrid roll into town next week.

Last 5 Games
Union Berlin 1
Bayern Munich 5
20.04.24
Bundesliga
Bayern Munich 1
Arsenal 0
17.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Bayern Munich 2
Cologne 0
13.04.24
Bundesliga
Arsenal 2
Bayern Munich 2
09.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Heidenheim 3
Bayern Munich 2
06.04.24
Bundesliga

The precocious Jamal Musiala is a doubt with a knee injury at the time of writing, but he’s expected to be fit in time for the first leg against Madrid. Serge Gnabry (hamstring) is also back in training and is likely to be available next week. However, Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman (both groin) have been ruled out, while Sacha Boey (hip) and Gabriel Marusic (ACL) won’t return until the end of May. Both Bouna Sarr (knee) and Tarek Buchmann (hamstring) are out for the season.

Player Reason
Jamal Musiala Knee injury
Leroy Sane Groin injury
Kingsley Coman Groin injury
Serge Gnabry Hamstring Injury
Sacha Boey Hip Injury
Tarek Buchmann Muscle Injury
Gabriel Marusic ACL Injury
Bouna Sarr ACL Injury

2️⃣ Real Madrid Update

I’ve already touched on Real’s superb run of results this season, with Los Blancos suffering defeat just twice all season (on both occasions to bitter rivals Atletico) and only losing one of their previous 40 matches in all competitions since September 24th. This is a quite remarkable sequence, especially when considering that the team haven’t always been at their best either at home or abroad under Carlo Ancelotti. They’re also unbeaten in 10 Champions League matches in 2023/24, although they’ve drawn three of their previous four and played almost exclusively in transition during their knockout ties with both RB Leipzig and Manchester City.

Last 5 Games
Real Madrid 3
Barcelona 2
21.04.24
La Liga
Manchester City (3) 1
Real Madrid (4) 1
17.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Mallorca 0
Real Madrid 1
13.04.24
La Liga
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City 3
09.04.24
UEFA Champions League
Real Madrid 2
Athletic Bilbao 0
31.03.24
La Liga

Unlike Bayern, Real Madrid are virtually at full strength ahead of their visit to Munich. However, left back Ferland Mendy is a doubt with a muscle injury and is expected to miss out at the Allianz Arena, although he should be fit for the second leg. Thibaut Courtois (ACL injury) is also back in training after an extended absence, but he won’t be ready in time for the UCL semi-final first leg. Dani Carvajal will also miss out through suspension after his yellow card in the second leg against Man City.

PlayerReason
Dani Carvajal Suspended
Ferland Mendy Muscle Injury
Thibaut Courtois ACL Injury

👕 Bayern vs Real Madrid - Potential Lineups

Pos. Bayern
4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
4-3-1-2
Pos.
Goalkeeper M. Neuer A. Lunin Goalkeeper
Right Back J. Kimmich L. Vazquez Right Back
Centre Back M. de Ligt Éder Militão Centre Back
Centre Back E. Dier A. Rudiger Centre Back
Left Back A. Davies E. Camavinga Left Back
Midfielder K. Laimer F. Valverde Midfielder
Midfielder L. Goretzka A. Tchouaméni Midfielder
Midfielder T. Müller T. Kroos Midfielder
Wide Forward S. Gnabry J. Bellingham Attacking Midfielder
Striker H. Kane Rodrygo Striker
Wide Forward J. Musiala Vinicius Junior Striker

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

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