Barcelona vs PSG: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
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| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 16th April 24 |
| Prediction | Back Barcelona to Win! |
| Odds | @2.20 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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The first leg of this Champions League quarterfinal tie produced a see-saw encounter at the Parc des Princes, with a late Andreas Christensen goal securing a narrow 3-2 win for the Catalan side. Even without the advent of the away goals rule, this affords Barcelona a potentially crucial advantage in the tie, especially as PSG have only progressed beyond the last eight twice in their previous 11 UCL campaigns. Barca have only lost six of their last 45 home matches in all competitions since the beginning of the 2022/23 season too, so they’re clear favourites to progress among Ireland’s best betting sites. But which side do I think will prevail here?
🏆 Barcelona vs PSG Prediction
The first leg was a typically open and end-to-end affair, although Barcelona created a higher quality of chances during the 90 minutes. This was reflected by their superior xG (1.73 vs 1.24), while Xavi’s men also created three big chances during the match and mustered seven attempts on target.
Conversely, PSG were relatively wasteful at the Parc des Princes, as despite boasting 59% possession and taking 15 more touches in their opponent’s box, they only created two big chances against Barca. This is typical of PSG’s UCL campaign so far in 2023/24, as they’ve underperformed their collective xG of 17.2 by -2.2 goals.
Luis Enrique’s side also look vulnerable defensively and have now made six errors leading to an opponent’s shot on goal in the Champions League (no other team has made more). Barca have also attempted 27 tackles in the attacking third in the UCL (this tally is only bettered by Arsenal and Real Sociedad), so they’ll look to force defensive errors through high and aggressive pressing.
I also expect Barca to have more of the ball at the Nou Camp than they did during the first leg, despite PSG averaging 64.2% possession per 90 in the competition. So, although PSG will retain a significant attacking threat and may well score at the Nou Camp, I’m tipping Barca to edge the second leg and reach the last four for the first time since 2018/19.
My Prediction: 🏆 Barcelona 2 – 1 PSG ⚽
💯 Barcelona vs PSG Match Odds
This is an incredibly difficult contest to call, especially as both teams enjoyed periods in the ascendency during the first leg and boast numerous match-winners in their ranks. However, there are several markets that you can target instead of picking a winner, including both teams to score and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes. Let’s take a closer look at these markets!
🏅 Barcelona vs PSG: Match Winner
Barcelona are the pre-game favourites to defeat PSG at the Nou Camp, with their average price of 2.20 implying a 45.45% probability of a home win. As for PSG, they can be backed to win the second leg at around 2.90, suggesting that they have a 34.48% chance of triumphing in Spain. Barca are also priced at 1.29 to qualify for the semi-finals, implying a 77.51% probability of them winning the tie overall.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona to Win | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.17 | 2.17 | 2.20 |
| PSG to Win | 2.88 | 2.90 | 2.96 | 2.96 | 3.00 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.80 |
⚽ Barcelona vs PSG: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in 10 of Barcelona’s 20 home games in all competitions this season (50%). The Catalan giants have kept 10 clean sheets at the Nou Camp and scored in every single one of their home matches. Both sides have found the net in 12 of PSG’s 20 away matches in 2023/24 (60%), with Luis Enrique’s men keeping eight clean sheets on the road and failing to score just twice.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.36 | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.41 | 1.40 |
| No | 2.80 | 2.70 | 2.77 | 2.77 | 2.75 |
🥅 Barcelona vs PSG: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Barca’s 20 home matches have also yielded a total of 68 goals, at the impressive rate of 3.40 per game. Xavi’s men have scored 46 of these goals at a rate of 2.30 per 90 minutes. PSG’s 20 away contests have been similarly goal-laden, producing 67 goals at the slightly lower rate of 3.35 per 90. However, the Parisians have only conceded 18 goals on the road, at a rate of 0.90 per game.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.40 | 1.48 | 1.46 | 1.46 | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.60 | 2.60 | 2.54 | 2.54 | 2.63 |
✔️ Barcelona vs PSG - Betting Tips
Neither side is an overwhelming favourite to win the second leg, although home advantage appears to have afforded Barca a slight advantage in the eyes of bookmakers. But which Barcelona vs PSG betting markets offer the best value, and how can you leverage them successfully? Here are some expert betting tips to keep in mind!
- Tip 1: Back the Barcelona to Win and Both Teams to Score: I’ve already touched on how the pre-game odds imply a 45.45% probability of a Barcelona win in the second leg. At the same time, average odds of 1.40 imply a 71.42% probability of both teams scoring at the Nou Camp, which makes sense given that Barca have yet to draw a blank at home and PSG have failed to score just twice on the road this season. So, there’s value in placing a combination bet that backs Barcelona to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.50 with LegendPlay-Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Kylian Mbappe as an Anytime Goalscorer: Kylian Mbappe was strangely subdued during the first leg, with French defender Jules Koundé keeping the talismanic forward relatively quiet. However, he still has six UCL goals this season from just 15 shots on target and an xG of 5.7, while he scored a hattrick on his only previous appearance at the Nou Camp on February 16th, 2021. It seems likely that Mbappe will have his say at some point during the tie too, so I’d recommend backing him as an anytime goalscorer at a price of 2.10 with Mr-Mega-Sports.
- Tip 3: Bet on Barcelona to Score First: If you have one or more free bets on your sportsbook account, you may want to consider backing Barcelona to score first in the second leg. After all, they’ve scored 11 of their 19 UCL goals in the first 45 minutes of games this season, whereas PSG have only found the net three times during the same period (while conceding five times). If the Parisians chase the game early during the second leg, they may also be hit on the counterattack, so get on Barca to score first at a price of 1.83 with LegendPlay.
1️⃣ Barcelona Update
After Barcelona were thumped 5-3 at home by Villareal on January 27th, they had shipped 15 goals in their previous six league matches and slipped to third in La Liga. However, this was the catalyst for a 13-match unbeaten run, which has seen them reel off 10 wins both at home and abroad and keep a total of seven clean sheets. Interestingly, Barca haven’t conceded in 583 minutes of La Liga action since a 2-1 win at Celta Vigo on February 17th, but they’re now without a clean sheet in seven successive UCL games since prevailing 1-0 at Porto on October 4th.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Cadiz 0 Barcelona 1 | 13.04.24 La Liga |
| PSG 2 Barcelona 3 | 10.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| Barcelona 1 Las Palmas 0 | 30.03.24 La Liga |
| Atletico Madrid 0 Barcelona 3 | 17.03.24 La Liga |
| Barcelona 3 Napoli 1 | 12.03.24 UEFA Champions League |
Barcelona will be without Sergio Roberto and first-leg match winner Andreas Christensen for the visit of PSG, as both players are suspended after picking up yellow cards at the Parc des Princes. Otherwise, Barca remains without Alejandro Balde (tendon rupture) and Gavi (cruciate ligament tear), with both players unlikely to play again this season.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Sergio Roberto | Suspended |
| Andreas Christensen | Suspended |
| Alejandro Balde | Tendon Rupture |
| Gavi | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
2️⃣ PSG Update
Although PSG have only lost four of their 43 matches in all competitions this season, their recent form has stuttered against the backdrop of their domestic dominance. To this end, they’ve drawn four of their previous six Ligue 1 matches, while their 3-2 loss against Barca in the first leg saw them taste defeat at the Parc des Princes for the first time since September 15th. This ended an unbeaten run of 19 matches at home, and it should be noted that Luis Enrique’s team have only won once on the road in four Champions League outings in 2023/24. They’ve also conceded eight goals in these fixtures.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| PSG 2 Barcelona 3 | 10.04.24 UEFA Champions League |
| PSG 1 Clermont Foot 1 | 06.04.24 Ligue 1 |
| PSG 1 Rennes 0 | 03.04.24 French Cup |
| Marseille 0 PSG 2 | 31.03.24 Ligue 1 |
| Montpellier 2 PSG 6 | 17.03.24 Ligue 1 |
Nordi Mukiele has a concussion and will be assessed ahead of kick-off at the Nou Camp. Both Layvin Kurzawa (back injury) and seasoned centre-back Presnel Kimpembe (Achilles tendon) have been ruled out and aren’t expected to be fit until the end of April. Goalkeeper Sergio Rico won’t feature again this season for PSG, having incurred a serious head injury in a horse riding accident and spent some time in a coma.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Nordi Mukiele | Concussion |
| Layvin Kurzawa | Back Injury |
| Sergio Rico | Head Injury |
| Presnel Kimpembe | Achilles Tendon Injury |
👕 Barcelona vs PSG - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Barcelona 4-3-3 | PSG 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. ter Stegen | G. Donnarumma | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Koundé | A. Hakimi | Right Back |
| Centre Back | R. Araújo | Marquinhos | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | P. Cubarsí | Lopes Beraldo | Centre Back |
| Left Back | J. Cancelo | L. Hernandez | Left Back |
| Midfielder | Pedri | W. Zaïre-Emery | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | F. de Jong | M. Ugarte | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | I. Gündoğan | F. Ruiz | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | Raphinha | O. Dembele | Wide Forward |
| Striker | R. Lewandowski | G. Ramos | Striker |
| Wide Forward | L. Yamal | K. Mbappe | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.
