Barcelona vs Napoli: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 22:00 GMT 12th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Barcelona to win! |
| Odds | 1.80 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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Barca were left frustrated following their 1-1 draw in Naples during the first leg of this Champions League round of 16 tie, as despite dominating both possession and territory during the opening 45 minutes, they failed to build on Robert Lewandowski’s opener.
Napoli subsequently equalised through the returning Victor Osimhen and were much brighter in the second half. They'll look to punish the Catalan side in transition during the second leg. But which side will win here, and how are the game’s outcomes being priced by Ireland’s best betting sites?
🏆 Barcelona vs Napoli Prediction
The first leg was a relatively low-key affair, with Napoli and Barcelona producing modest xG values of 0.92 and 0.72 respectively. Clear-cut chances were certainly few and far between, with Lewandowski and Osimhen producing isolated moments of quality in the final third. Interestingly, the latter’s goal was Napoli’s only attempt on target in the whole of the first leg.
Neither side is in a consistent run of form but Barca’s penchant for controlling possession was evident for the first hour in Naples. They’ve averaged 60.00% possession per 90 minutes in this year’s Champions League too, while only Man City and PSG have had more than Barca’s 1560 touches in the attacking third.
Still, Barca have only produced 3.00 goal-creating actions per 90 in the UCL, with the side only ranking ninth according to this metric. So, they struggle to make the most of their possession and translate this into high-quality chances, so Napoli may be happy to cede possession in the Nou Camp and rely on their pace and power to strike in transition.
However, Napoli have only won 45.3 of their tackles in this season’s UCL, while they’ve shipped 46 goals in 37 matches in all competitions through 2023/24 (at a rate of 1.24 per 90). This may make them vulnerable if Barca are to sustain attacks and probe their defensive weaknesses, so I’m tipping Xavi’s men to edge the second leg and qualify for the quarterfinals.
My Prediction: 🏆 Barcelona 2 – 1 Napoli ⚽
💯 Barcelona v Napoli Match Odds
This tie is evenly poised after the first leg, although the removal of the away goals rule means that Barca don’t have the advantage that they would have done in previous seasons. This has a direct impact on the match winner and qualification odds, although it has less of an influence on the BTTS market and the over/under on how many goals will be scored.
🏅 Barcelona v Napoli: Match Winner
Barca are the clear favourites to win the second leg in Catalonia. Their average odds of 1.80 imply a 55.55% probability of a home victory. Conversely, Napoli can be backed at around 4.00 to record a famous continental victory on the road suggesting that they have a 25% chance of triumphing. Barcelona are also priced at 1.44 to qualify for the last eight, whereas the odds of Napoli winning the tie are much higher at 3.00.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona to Win | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.80 |
| Napoli to Win | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.90 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.65 | 3.65 | 3.75 |
⚽ Barcelona v Napoli: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
At the time of writing, both teams have scored in 25 of Barca’s 39 matches in all competitions this season (64%), including nine of their 17 encounters at the Nou Camp. They’ve kept eight clean sheets at home and have yet to draw a single blank. As for Napoli, both sides have found the net in 20 of their 37 games (54%), including eight out of 17 on the road. However, they’ve failed to score in six away matches and kept just four clean sheets.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 | 1.70 | 1.61 | 1.61 | 1.67 |
| No | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.13 | 2.13 | 2.10 |
🥅 Barcelona v Napoli: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Barcelona’s 17 matches at the Nou Camp have produced a total of 62 goals at a rate of 3.64 per game with the Catalan team scoring 41 of these goals. While Napoli’s 17 away clashes have seen a little less action in the final third, they’ve still yielded 47 goals at a rate of 2.76 per 90. So, the odds imply a higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in this contest.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.73 | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.69 | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
✔️ Barcelona v Napoli - Betting Tips
Given the keenly contested nature of the first leg, you may think there’s value in engaging in matched betting here. However, if you want to find alternative markets for your bankroll and free bets, here are some options to consider!
- Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals: While the first leg was relatively low-scoring and short on clear-cut chances, the return match is likely to be a little more open at times as both teams look to progress. Similarly, Barca’s home clashes have yielded an average of 3.64 per 90 minutes this season, while Xavi’s men have scored 41 times in 17 matches at the Nou Camp at a rate of 2.41 per game. Napoli also thumped Sassuolo 6-1 in their last away game on February 28th and look more potent with Osimhen in attack, so get on over 2.5 goals being scored in the second leg at a price of 1.73 with Betway.
- Tip 2: Back Barcelona to Win and Both Teams to Score: Prior to Napoli’s 6-1 win at Sassoulo, they’d scored just a single goal in six away matches. However, the return of talisman Victor Osimhen from a combination of injury and international duty appears to have restored their cutting edge, while Barca’s previous six matches at the Nou Camp have produced 30 goals at a rate of exactly 5.00 per game. Barcelona’s opponents have scored 14 of these goals, so get on Xavi’s men to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.50 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Barcelona to Win by a Single Goal: Whichever side prevails here, it’s likely to be a narrow win that follows a keenly contested game at the Nou Camp. Barca defeated both Shakhtar and FC Porto by a single goal at home during the group stages, while six of their last seven La Liga victories at the Nou Camp have also been by the odd goal. The magnitude of this game means that neither side is likely to overcommit in attack from the beginning of the match, so get on Barcelona to win by a single goal at a price of 3.60 with LegendPlay.
1️⃣ Barcelona Update
Barca have finally found a little form of late, going unbeaten in seven matches in all competitions since a 5-3 home defeat to Villareal on January 27th. Their defensive performances have also improved during this sequence, as they’ve conceded just six goals (including three in one match against Granada) and kept a total of three clean sheets. This has arguably coincided with the decision to move defender Andreas Christensen into central midfield, with the 27-year-old looking to provide a solid base for the Catalan side in the number six position. Robert Lewandowski has also scored five goals in his last seven games, including the opener in Naples.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Athletic Bilbao 0 Barcelona 0 | 03.03.24 La Liga |
| Barcelona 4 Getafe 0 | 24.02.24 La Liga |
| Napoli 1 Barcelona 1 | 21.02.24 Champions League |
| Celta Vigo 1 Barcelona 2 | 17.02.24 La Liga |
| Barcelona 3 Granada 3 | 11.02.24 La Liga |
While João Félix and club skipper Sergio Roberto are both back to full fitness, Dutch playmaker Frenkie De Jong has been ruled out with an ankle injury. Pedri still hasn’t recovered from the muscle injury he picked up in the first leg clash, while Ferran Torres also remains doubtful with a hamstring injury. Left backs Alex Balde (Achilles tendon) and Marcos Alonso (back) are sidelined too, with the former ruled out for the remainder of the season. Gavi also continues his gradual recovery from an ACL injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Ferran Torres | Hamstring Injury |
| Frenkie De Jong | Ankle Injury |
| Pedri | Muscle Injury |
| Marcos Alonso | Back Injury |
| Alejandro Balde | Tendon Rupture |
| Gavi | Cruciate Ligament Tear |
2️⃣ Napoli Update
Napoli are now unbeaten in five matches in all competitions, with this run having coincided with the return of the prolific Victor Osimhen from the African Cup of Nations. The Nigerian talisman has struck five goals since being restored to Napoli’s starting 11, including a clinically taken equaliser against Barcelona and a hattrick during the 6-1 win at Sassuolo. Francesco Calzona’s team have now moved up to 7th in the Serie A table, and while they’re not in contention to retain their domestic title, they still have an outside chance of claiming a coveted Champions League place for 2024/25.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Napoli 2 Juventus 1 | 03.03.24 Serie A |
| Sassuolo 1 Napoli 6 | 28.02.24 Serie A |
| Cagliari 1 Napoli Ankaragücü 1 | 25.02.24 Serie A |
| Napoli 1 Barcelona 1 | 21.02.24 Champions League |
| Napoli 1 Genoa 1 | 17.02.24 Serie A |
Defenders Amir Rrahmani (muscle injury) and midfielder Jens Cajuste (thigh) have both been ruled out until the end of March and will miss the trip to Barcelona. However, the Neapolitans are virtually at full strength otherwise, although young forward Cyril Ngonge will be assessed as he continues to recover from a muscle injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Amir Rrahmani | Muscle Injury |
| Jens Cajuste | Thigh Injury |
| Cyril Ngonge | Muscle Injury |
👕 Barcelona vs Napoli - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Barcelona 4-3-3 | Napoli 4-3-3 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. ter Stegen | A. Meret | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | J. Koundé | G. Di Lorenzo | Right Back |
| Centre Back | R. Araújo | Leo Skiri Østigård | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | I. Martínez | J. Jesus | Centre Back |
| Left Back | J. Cancelo | M. Olivera | Left Back |
| Midfielder | S. Roberto | A. Zambo Anguissa | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | A. Christensen | S. Lobotka | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | I. Gündoğan | P. Zieliński | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | Raphinha | M. Politano | Wide Forward |
| Striker | R. Lewandowski | V. Osimhen | Striker |
| Wide Forward | L. Yamal | K. Kvaratskhelia | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
