Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 13th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Inter To Win! |
| Odds | 2.50 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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In-form Inter produced a classy and composed display during their first-leg clash against Atletico Madrid, although they may be slightly disappointed that they didn’t win by a wider margin. In fact, Diego Simeone’s men failed to register a single attempt on goal, while Inter keeper Yann Sommer kept his 21st clean sheet of the season at the San Siro.
Of course, Atletico may be a different proposition in the cauldron that is the Civitas Metropolitano and an early goal here for ‘Los Rojiblancos’ could reignite their Champions League hopes. But which side do I think will win and how are the potential outcomes being priced by the best betting sites?
🏆 Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Prediction
Inter’s dominance in the first leg was clear but understated and also reflected in the respective xG values for each team. Inter produced an xG of 1.97 and should have won by more than Marko Arnautovic’s 79th-minute goal, with the Austrian forward wasting several other chances. Atletico produced an xG of just 0.67 despite a second-half cameo from top scorer Alvaro Morata.
Inter were also typically resilient and defensively well-organised throughout the first leg, while they’ve completed an impressive 354 ball recoveries in this season’s UCL campaign. They’ve also won 54.90% of their aerial duels, so Atletico may find it hard to break down their opponents even if they have the lion’s share of possession in Madrid.
These teams average 52.60% and 51.90% possession respectively per 90 minutes this season and are evenly matched in this respect. Atletico can draw solace from the fact that they’ve outperformed their collective xG value of 9.9 by 5.1 goals. Inter have underperformed their own xG by -5.6 goals and occasionally struggle to make the most of their chances which was evident during the first leg.
However, Inter have won 78.38% of their matches in all competitions this season, having conceded just 20 goals at a rate of just 0.54 per game. Atleti are also in a difficult run of form and maddeningly inconsistent, so get on the away side to edge another tight match and take their place in the quarterfinals.
My Prediction: 🏆 Atletico Madrid 1 – 2 Inter ⚽
💯 Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan Match Odds
It’s interesting to note that despite their struggles at times this season, Atletico have won 18 of their 20 home matches in all competitions and have only lost to Athletic Bilbao in the Copa del Rey. So, this has been factored into the match-winner odds, while it may have also influenced the BTTS market odds and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes.
🏅 Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan: Match Winner
Inter are the narrow favourites to win the second leg at the Civitas Metropolitano. Their average odds of 2.40 imply a 41.66% probability of an away victory for the Serie A side. However, Atletico can also be backed at a price as low as 2.80 suggesting that they have a 35.71% chance of emerging victorious. Inter are also odds-on to qualify for the last eight at a price of 1.33.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid to Win | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.90 |
| Inter Milan to Win | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
⚽ Atlético Madrid v Inter Milan: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Simone Inzaghi’s side have kept a staggering 23 clean sheets and never once failed to score. As for Atletico, they've found the net in 21 of their 40 games in 2023/24 (52.50%). The La Liga outfit have kept fewer clean sheets (12) and have failed to score on eight occasions.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 | 1.83 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.73 |
| No | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.93 | 2.00 |
🥅 Atlético Madrid v Inter Milan: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Despite Inter’s defensive excellence this season, the 37 matches that they’ve played in all competitions have yielded 103 goals at a rate of 2.78 per game. While Atletico have only scored one less goal than Inter this season (82), they’ve conceded 28 more with their 40 matches producing 130 goals at the higher rate of 3.25 per 90.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.95 | 2.00 | 1.99 | 1.99 | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 1.75 | 1.73 | 1.70 | 1.70 | 1.73 |
✔️ Atlético Madrid v Inter Milan - Betting Tips
As the match winner odds suggest, this could be a close and keenly contested game, so matched betting may be a viable strategy if you have one or more free bets on your account. Here are some additional betting tips to keep in mind ahead of the match!
- Tip 1: Back Over 2.5 Goals: The bookies are split when it comes to the over/under market for total goals scored. The current odds imply just a 50.25% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in Madrid. However, Atletico’s 20 home games in all competitions this season have produced 68 goals at a rate of 3.40 per 90 minutes, while the fact that they may have to force the issue at some point could create a more open match. So, consider betting on over 2.5 goals being scored during the 90 minutes at a price of 2.00 with Betway.
- Tip 2: Back Inter to Win: While Inter are the narrow favourites to win the second leg, there’s still value in backing them to win triumph at the highly competitive price of 2.50 with Betway. Of course, Atletico have lost just one of their 20 home games in all competitions this season, but Inter are unbeaten in 17 matches on the road and have managed to win 13 of these encounters. They’ve also lost just one of their last nine Champions League away games, not including their UCL final defeat to Man City in June.
- Tip 3: Back Alvaro Morata as an Anytime Goalscorer: The return of top scorer Alvaro Morata is a huge boost for Atletico, with the talented Spaniard having scored five Champions League goals in 2023/24. These have come from just 17 shots and an xG of 3.4. He also averages an impressive 0.63 goals per shot on target. Because of his recent injury, you can also back Morata as anytime goalscorer against Inter at the enhanced price of 3.20 with LegendPlay Sports, with this offering considerable and tangible value.
1️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update
Atletico’s most recent form will be a significant concern for manager Diego Simeone, with the team having won just two of their eight games in all competitions since January 31st. This sequence has included four defeats (including the first leg loss in the San Siro) and also seen Atletico dumped out of the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey 4-0 on aggregate by Athletic Bilbao. They’ve scored just 10 goals during this run (including five in a single win over Las Palmas) and conceded the same amount, while they’ve also slumped to fourth in La Liga and face a battle to secure Champions League football for 2024/25.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid 2 Real Betis 1 | 03.03.24 La Liga |
| Athletic Bilbao 3 Atletico Madrid 0 | 29.02.24 Copa del Rey |
| Almeria 2 Atletico Madrid 2 | 24.02.24 La Liga |
| Inter Milan 1 Atletico Madrid 0 | 20.02.24 Champions League |
| Atletico Madrid 5 Las Palmas 0 | 17.02.24 La Liga |
While Morata is now fit again after a knee injury, his strike partner Antoine Griezmann remains a significant doubt with a sprained ankle. The match may have also come a little too soon for José Giménez (muscle injury) and Thomas Lemar (Achilles tendon), while midfielder Pablo Barrios is also a doubt with a knock. Experienced defender Cesar Azpilicueta is sidelined until April with a meniscus injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Antoine Griezmann | Sprained Ankle |
| Thomas Lemar | Achilles Tendon Rupture |
| Pablo Barrios | Knock |
| César Azpilicueta | Meniscus Tear |
| José María Giménez | Hamstring Injury |
2️⃣ Inter Milan Update
Inter opened up a 15-point lead at the top of Serie A after defeating Genoa last time out, while this victory also extended their incredible unbeaten run to 14 matches in all competitions. They’ve only lost twice in 37 matches so far in 2023/24 and one of their previous 30 since a shock 2-1 home defeat to lowly Sassuolo on September 27th. Interestingly, they’ve only lost one of their last 14 UCL encounters too, with Man City the sole team to defeat them in the competition since Bayern Munich on November 1st, 2022. They haven’t lost on the road at all since a 3-1 defeat at Napoli on May 21st, 2023.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Inter 2 Genoa 1 | 04.03.24 Serie A |
| Inter 4 Atalanta 0 | 28.02.24 Serie A |
| Lecce 0 Inter 4 | 25.02.24 Serie A |
| Inter 1 Atletico Madrid 0 | 20.02.24 Champions League |
| Inter 4 Salernitana 0 | 16.02.24 Serie A |
Inter are virtually at full strength ahead of their visit to Madrid, although Stefano Sensi has been ruled out until early April with an ankle injury. Colombian veteran Juan Cuadrado will also miss out in the second leg, but on the bright site, he has nearly completed his recovery from a serious Achilles tendon injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Stefano Sensi | Ankle Injury |
| Juan Cuadrado | Achilles Tendon Injury |
👕 Atletico Madrid vs Inter - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Atletico Madrid 3-5-2 | Inter Milan 3-5-2 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | J. Oblak | Y. Sommer | Goalkeeper |
| Right Centre Back | A. Witsel | B. Pavard | Right Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Gabriel | S. de Vrij | Centre Back |
| Left Centre Back | M. Hermoso | A. Bastoni | Left Centre Back |
| Right Wing Back | M. Llorente | D. Dumfries | Right Wing Back |
| Midfielder | R. De Paul | N. Barella | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Koke | K. Asllani | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Saúl Ñíguez | H. Mkhitaryan | Midfielder |
| Left Wing Back | S. Lino | F. Dimarco | Left Wing Back |
| Striker | M. Depay | M. Arnautović | Striker |
| Striker | A. Morata | L. Martinez | Striker |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
