Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction

These two teams have contested four Champions League matches throughout history, with Atletico and Dortmund sharing two wins apiece. These contests have been group-stage matches during the 1996/97 campaign (when Dortmund famously won the competition) and in 2018/19. The latter saw Atletico defeat Dortmund 2-0 at the Estadio Metropolitano in November 2018.

This campaign has seen Dortmund emerge as one of the best defensive teams in the competition, with no team attempting (189) or winning (107) more tackles than the Bundesliga outfit. They’ve also made a tournament-high 80 interceptions and conceded just five goals in eight matches, keeping four clean sheets overall.

Interestingly, Atletico have made the most blocks (125) in this season’s Champions League, which reflects their more reactive defensive style. However, Diego Simeone’s side are also the tournament’s joint-second highest scorers with 17 goals, while they’re among the most efficient UCL teams in the attacking third having outperformed their collective xG of 12.6 by +4.4 goals.

Clearly, these are two highly combative and competitive teams, although Atletico arguably hold the edge in terms of experience and firepower. They also boast one of the tournament’s top scorers in Alvaro Morata, who has five goals from 20 shots and an xG of just 3.6. So, I’m tipping Atletico to edge a tight game and take the lead to Germany for the second leg.

💯 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Match Odds

Whoever you choose to wager with from Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll be able to access a huge range of markets. These include the match winner and result, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Match Winner

Atletico Madrid are the clear pre-game favourites to defeat Borussia Dortmund at the Estadio Metropolitano, with their average odds of 1.77 implying a 56.49% probability of a home win. Dortmund can be backed at around 4.50 to secure a potentially decisive first-leg win, suggesting that they have just a 22.22% chance of emerging victorious in Spain.

Team
Atletico Madrid to Win	1.75	1.78	1.77	1.77	1.81
Borussia Dortmund to Win	4.50	4.50	4.45	4.45	4.50
Draw	3.50	3.60	3.65	3.65	3.60

⚽ Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 13 of Atletico’s 22 home matches in all competitions this season (59%), with Simeone’s men keeping seven clean sheets and failing to score on just two occasions. Conversely, both sides have found the net in 12 of Dortmund’s 20 matches on the road in 2023/24 (60%). Dortmund have kept six clean sheets on their travels and drawn a total of three blanks (including one in four UCL away games).

Yes/No
Yes	1.83	1.88	1.77	1.77	1.83
No	1.87	1.91	1.94	1.94	1.87

🥅 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Atletico’s 22 home matches this season have also yielded 69 goals at a rate of 3.13 per 90 minutes. Simeone’s side have scored 45 of these goals at a rate of 2.04 per 90. Dortmund’s 20 matches on the road have produced 59 goals at the marginally lower rate of 2.95 goals per game, with Edin Terzić’s side scoring 39 times away from home.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.91	1.95	1.89	1.89	1.96
Under 2.5 Goals	1.80	1.83	1.81	1.81	1.85

1️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update

Atletico’s form has been patchy through much of 2023/24, with their previous 12 matches since February 4th producing six defeats, two draws and a paltry two wins. This sequence has seen the team exit the Copa del Rey at the semi-final stage and slip to fourth in La Liga, although they did overturn a 1-0 deficit to prevail in their UCL round of 16 tie against Inter Milan on penalties. This run of form will be of significant concern for Diego Simeone, although their defeat in Milan remains their only loss in this season’s UEFA Champions League to date.

Mario Hermoso (muscle injury) is a doubt for Atletico ahead of Dortmund’s visit, and he’ll continue to be assessed ahead of kick-off. Both Thomas Lemar (Achilles tendon injury) and winger Vitolo (knock) may also miss out on the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinal. Experienced defender José María Giménez has been ruled out with a muscle injury, while Dutch forward Memphis Depay has a muscle contusion and is not expected to be fit until late April.

2️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund have endured a mixed season so far in 2023/24, with a 2-0 defeat at home against VfB Stuttgart last time out leaving them fifth and their hopes of Champions League qualification in the balance. This came after their first away victory over rivals Bayern Munich in 10 years during the previous weekend, as Dortmund continued to struggle in their attempts to build a consistent run of form or performances. However, they’ve only lost two of the 14 matches they’ve contested in all competitions since the beginning of 2024, winning Dortmund a further nine games during this sequence.

Forward Donyell Malen has been ruled out of the first leg clash in Madrid with a hip injury, while he joins Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament injury) as a confirmed absentee. Samuel Bamba (muscle) and Abdoulaye Kamara (knock) are significant doubts ahead of Dortmund’s trip to Spain too, but they’ll face late fitness tests to confirm their eligibility.

👕 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund - Potential Lineups

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.