Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

atletico-v-borussia-prediction atletico-v-borussia-prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 10th April 24
PredictionAtletico To Win!
Odds1.81
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
1.
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.81
Bet €100 and win €181 if Atletico win.
Bonus:
2.
Bet €100 and win €178 if Atletico win.
Bonus:
3.
Betiton
Odds : 1.77
Bet €100 and win €177 if Atletico win.
Bonus:
€10
atletico-v-borussia-logo atletico-v-borussia-logo

Although neither of these teams is realistically expected to win the 2023/24 Champions League, both will arguably never have a better chance of lifting this iconic trophy. After all, the winner of this tie will progress to face either PSG or Barcelona, both of whom have vulnerabilities and are also relative outsiders to win this season’s UCL. Atletico certainly have a greater recent pedigree in this competition, having reached the final in 2014 and 2016, while Dortmund haven’t progressed beyond the last eight since finishing as runners-up in 2013. But which side do I think will win here and carve out an advantage ahead of the second leg?

🏆 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction

These two teams have contested four Champions League matches throughout history, with Atletico and Dortmund sharing two wins apiece. These contests have been group-stage matches during the 1996/97 campaign (when Dortmund famously won the competition) and in 2018/19. The latter saw Atletico defeat Dortmund 2-0 at the Estadio Metropolitano in November 2018.

This campaign has seen Dortmund emerge as one of the best defensive teams in the competition, with no team attempting (189) or winning (107) more tackles than the Bundesliga outfit. They’ve also made a tournament-high 80 interceptions and conceded just five goals in eight matches, keeping four clean sheets overall.

Interestingly, Atletico have made the most blocks (125) in this season’s Champions League, which reflects their more reactive defensive style. However, Diego Simeone’s side are also the tournament’s joint-second highest scorers with 17 goals, while they’re among the most efficient UCL teams in the attacking third having outperformed their collective xG of 12.6 by +4.4 goals.

Clearly, these are two highly combative and competitive teams, although Atletico arguably hold the edge in terms of experience and firepower. They also boast one of the tournament’s top scorers in Alvaro Morata, who has five goals from 20 shots and an xG of just 3.6. So, I’m tipping Atletico to edge a tight game and take the lead to Germany for the second leg.

My Prediction: 🏆 Atletico Madrid 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund ⚽

💯 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Match Odds

Whoever you choose to wager with from Ireland’s best betting sites, you’ll be able to access a huge range of markets. These include the match winner and result, BTTS and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes, but how are these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Match Winner

Atletico Madrid are the clear pre-game favourites to defeat Borussia Dortmund at the Estadio Metropolitano, with their average odds of 1.77 implying a 56.49% probability of a home win. Dortmund can be backed at around 4.50 to secure a potentially decisive first-leg win, suggesting that they have just a 22.22% chance of emerging victorious in Spain.

Team
Atletico Madrid to Win1.751.781.771.771.81
Borussia Dortmund to Win4.504.504.454.454.50
Draw3.503.603.653.653.60

⚽ Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in 13 of Atletico’s 22 home matches in all competitions this season (59%), with Simeone’s men keeping seven clean sheets and failing to score on just two occasions. Conversely, both sides have found the net in 12 of Dortmund’s 20 matches on the road in 2023/24 (60%). Dortmund have kept six clean sheets on their travels and drawn a total of three blanks (including one in four UCL away games).

Yes/No
Yes1.831.881.771.771.83
No1.871.911.941.941.87

🥅 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Atletico’s 22 home matches this season have also yielded 69 goals at a rate of 3.13 per 90 minutes. Simeone’s side have scored 45 of these goals at a rate of 2.04 per 90. Dortmund’s 20 matches on the road have produced 59 goals at the marginally lower rate of 2.95 goals per game, with Edin Terzić’s side scoring 39 times away from home.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.911.951.891.891.96
Under 2.5 Goals1.801.831.811.811.85

✔️ Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund - Betting Tips

As I’ve touched on, Atletico are the pre-game favourites to defeat Dortmund in Madrid, but there’s little value to be found when backing Simeone’s men to win outright. So, I’ve prepared some expert betting tips to help you build combination wagers and identify the best value markets ahead of the match.

  • Tip 1: Back Atletico to Win and Both Teams to Score: The odds also imply a slightly higher probability of both teams scoring in Madrid (54.64%), which makes sense given that Atletico have only failed to score twice at home all season. Borussia Dortmund have also drawn just three blanks on the road in 2023/24 and have scored on their last three UCL visits to Newcastle, AC Milan and runaway Eredivisie leaders PSV Eindhoven. So, there’s significant value in backing Atletico to win and both teams to score at the enhanced price of 3.90 with 1Bet Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: If you expect Atletico to win the first leg outright and both teams to score at the Estadio Metropolitano, it also makes logical sense to back over 2.5 goals being scored in the contest. The pre-game odds imply a 52.35% probability of this outcome occurring, with the matches involving Atletico and Dortmund in 2023/24 producing more than 2.5 goals on average both home and away. The really good news is that you can get on over 2.5 goals being scored in the game at the competitive price of 1.96 with LegendPlay.
  • Tip 3: Back Antoine Griezmann as an Anytime Goalscorer: I’ve already spoken about Atletico’s top overall scorer Alvaro Morata, but his teammate Antoine Griezmann is now the club’s leading UCL scorer after his goal in the round of 16 win over Inter. In fact, Griezmann is the UCL’s joint-top scorer in 2023/24 with six goals so far, which have come from just 20 attempts on goal and an individual xG of 4.2. You can also back the French international as an anytime scorer against Dortmund at the competitive price of 2.90 with Mr Mega Sports, and this offers particular value if you have one or more free bets on your account.

1️⃣ Atletico Madrid Update

Atletico’s form has been patchy through much of 2023/24, with their previous 12 matches since February 4th producing six defeats, two draws and a paltry two wins. This sequence has seen the team exit the Copa del Rey at the semi-final stage and slip to fourth in La Liga, although they did overturn a 1-0 deficit to prevail in their UCL round of 16 tie against Inter Milan on penalties. This run of form will be of significant concern for Diego Simeone, although their defeat in Milan remains their only loss in this season’s UEFA Champions League to date.

Last 5 Games
Villareal 1
Atletico Madrid 1
01.04.24
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 0
Barcelona 3
17.03.24
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2
Inter Milan 1
13.03.24
UEFA Champions League
Cadiz 2
Atletico Madrid 0
09.03.24
La Liga
Atletico Madrid 2
Real Betis 1
03.03.24
La Liga

Mario Hermoso (muscle injury) is a doubt for Atletico ahead of Dortmund’s visit, and he’ll continue to be assessed ahead of kick-off. Both Thomas Lemar (Achilles tendon injury) and winger Vitolo (knock) may also miss out on the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinal. Experienced defender José María Giménez has been ruled out with a muscle injury, while Dutch forward Memphis Depay has a muscle contusion and is not expected to be fit until late April.

Player Reason
Mario Hermoso Muscle Injury
Thomas Lemar Achilles Tendon Rupture
Vitolo Knock
Memphis Depay Muscle Contusion
José María Giménez Muscle Injury

2️⃣ Borussia Dortmund Update

Dortmund have endured a mixed season so far in 2023/24, with a 2-0 defeat at home against VfB Stuttgart last time out leaving them fifth and their hopes of Champions League qualification in the balance. This came after their first away victory over rivals Bayern Munich in 10 years during the previous weekend, as Dortmund continued to struggle in their attempts to build a consistent run of form or performances. However, they’ve only lost two of the 14 matches they’ve contested in all competitions since the beginning of 2024, winning Dortmund a further nine games during this sequence.

Last 5 Games
Dortmund 0
VfB Stuttgart 1
06.04.24
Bundesliga
Bayern 0
Dortmund 2
30.03.24
Bundesliga
Dortmund 3
Eintracht Frankfurt 1
17.03.24
Bundesliga
Dortmund 2
PSV Eindhoven 0
13.03.24
UEFA Champions League
Werder Bremen 1
Dortmund 2
09.03.24
Bundesliga

Forward Donyell Malen has been ruled out of the first leg clash in Madrid with a hip injury, while he joins Ramy Bensebaini (inner ligament injury) as a confirmed absentee. Samuel Bamba (muscle) and Abdoulaye Kamara (knock) are significant doubts ahead of Dortmund’s trip to Spain too, but they’ll face late fitness tests to confirm their eligibility.

Player Reason
Donyell Malen Hip Injury
Ramy Bensebaini Inner Ligament Injury
Samuel Bamba Muscle Injury
Abdoulaye Kamara Knock

👕 Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund - Potential Lineups

Pos. Atletico Madrid
3-5-2
Dortmund
4-2-3-1
Pos.
Goalkeeper J. Oblak G. Kobel Goalkeeper
Right Centre Back A. Witsel J. Ryerson Right Back
Centre Back Gabriel M. Hummels Centre Back
Left Centre Back R. Mandava N. Schlotterbeck Centre Back
Right Wing Back M. Llorente I. Maatsen Left Back
Midfielder R. De Paul M. Sabitzer Midfielder
Midfielder Koke E. Can Midfielder
Midfielder P. Barrios J. Brandt Midfielder
Left Wing Back R. Riquelme J. Sancho Wide Forward
Striker A. Griezmann N. Füllkrug Striker
Striker A. Morata K. Adeyemi Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Find more predictions here: