Arsenal vs Porto: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips
| Timetable | 20:00 GMT 12th Mar 24 |
| Prediction | Arsenal To Win! |
| Odds | 1.18 |
| Bookmaker | Lunubet Sports |
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It’s curious that during a domestic run of form that has seen Arsenal score 31 goals in seven successive victories, they have also delivered an insipid performance against Porto in the first leg of their round of 16 Champions League match. They struck just seven attempts on goal and failed to register a single shot on target during the 90 minutes in Portugal and they’ll now have to overcome their 1-0 first-leg deficit at the Emirates. Still, they have the pedigree and individual quality to achieve this objective and remain the favourites among Ireland’s best betting sites.
🏆 Arsenal vs Porto UCL Prediction
The first-leg clash saw the Gunners take a 65% share of possession, but their failure to create chances and penetrate in the attacking third was striking. Overall, Porto had the better of the chances throughout and managed to clinch the win when Brazilian winger Galeno curled a superb stoppage-time winner (90+4') beyond David Raya.
This performance came as something of a surprise as only Manchester City (21), at the time, had bettered Arsenal’s tally of 16 Champions League goals in 2023/24. The Gunners have also averaged 3.86 goal-creating actions per 90 throughout the campaign, while Bukayo Saka has contributed 1.29 goal-creating actions per 90 minutes by himself and is one of the tournament’s most creative players.
Arsenal are also the third most efficient team in the final third, having outperformed their collective xG of 11.2 by +4.8 goals. They also average 0.17 goals per shot in the Champions League, with no side boasting a better shot conversion rate than the Gunners. So, they may not need too many chances to put Porto to the sword, especially with Gabriel Jesus offering another option in attack.
At the time of writing, Porto have won 73 tackles in this season’s Champions League and prevailed in 55.30% of their aerial duels, so Arsenal may have to be patient when breaking down their opponents. However, I expect them to excel in their attacking quality and variation over the 90 minutes to ultimately win by a margin that propels them into the last eight of the competition.
My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 3 – 0 FC Porto ⚽
💯 Arsenal vs Porto Match Odds
Despite their first-leg deficit, the Gunners remain the favourites to win the second-leg clash and qualify for the quarterfinals at the expense of Porto. Of course, there are several different betting markets that you can target ahead of this contest instead of the match winner, including BTTS (or not) and the over/under on how many goals will be scored during the 90 minutes.
🏅 Arsenal v Porto: Match Winner
Arsenal are even bigger favourites to defeat Porto than they were in the first leg, with their average price of 1.20 implying an 83.88% probability of a win for the Gunners. Interestingly, Porto can be backed as high as 12.00 to triumph, so they have just an 8.33% chance of prevailing in the second leg. Arsenal are also priced at around 1.40 to win the tie overall.
| Team |  |  |  |  |  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal to Win | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.22 |
| FC Porto to Win | 12.00 | 11.00 | 11.30 | 11.50 | 11.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 6.00 | 6.55 | 6.00 | 5.80 |
⚽ Arsenal v Porto: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)
Both teams have scored in 18 of Porto’s 38 matches in all competitions through 2023/24 (47%), including four of seven Champions League matches. Porto have amassed an impressive 15 clean sheets in total (and two in the UCL), while they’ve failed to find the net on five occasions. Both sides have found the net in 17 of Arsenal’s 38 encounters this season, with the Gunners also keeping 15 clean sheets. In fact, they haven’t conceded a single goal at home in this year’s tournament so far.
| Yes/No | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.05 | 2.20 | 1.98 | 2.19 | 2.10 |
| No | 1.70 | 1.67 | 1.74 | 1.55 | 1.67 |
🥅 Arsenal v Porto: Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Between them, Arsenal and Porto have played 76 matches in all competitions this season, with these encounters producing a total of 227 goals at a rate of 2.98 per game. Arsenal’s last seven matches have yielded 34 goals alone at a rate of 4.85 per 90 minutes, so it’s not surprising that the odds imply a much higher probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at the Emirates.
| Under/Over | | | | | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Goals | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.41 | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 2.30 | 2.25 | 2.67 | 2.23 | 2.25 |
✔️ Arsenal v Porto - Betting Tips
Even if you have one or more free bets on your account, I wouldn’t recommend matched betting here due to Arsenal’s superior collective and individual quality. But what other betting markets and wager types offer tangible value?
- Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Sides Not to Score: Arsenal have yet to concede at home in this season’s Champions League, having won all three of their group stage matches by an aggregate score of 12-0. This is in part due to the imposing defensive presence of Declan Rice, with the former West Ham skipper having completed 23 combined tackles and interceptions and made no mistakes leading to an opponent’s shot at goal in the UCL. The Gunners also average 57.00% possession per 90 and will look to control the game from the outset in North London, so there’s value in backing the Gunners to win and both teams not to score at the enhanced price of 1.91 with LegendPlay Sports.
- Tip 2: Back Arsenal to Win with a Handicap of -2.5 Goals: Since January 20th, Arsenal have won seven consecutive matches by an aggregate score of 31-3, while they’ve scored 46 goals in 17 home games in all competitions at a rate of 2.70 per 90. So, they’re in a rich vein of goalscoring form and retain a significant attacking threat at the Emirates and I expect them to exert controlled dominance over Porto in front of their home fans. Get on Arsenal to win with a handicap of -2.5 goals at a price of 2.70 with 1Bet Sports.
- Tip 3: Back Arsenal in the Half and Full Time Markets: The Gunners have been fast starters in this season’s Champions League, scoring 12 of their 16 UCL goals (75%) during the opening 45 minutes. Incredibly, nine of the 12 Champions League goals they’ve scored at the Emirates this season have also come during the first half, while they’ve remained a threat throughout the 90 minutes. There’s value in backing Arsenal to win both halves of football against Porto, especially at a price of 1.75 with Betway.
1️⃣ Arsenal Update
While Arsenal’s insipid display at the Estádio do Dragão was at odds with their superb domestic form, the Gunners did drop points at RC Lens and PSV Eindhoven during the group stages and aren’t always at their most fluent on the road. However, they’re a different animal at the Emirates where they’re able to dominate possession and optimize their immense creative talents. It’s also interesting to note that their 12 Group B goals at home came from a combined xG value of just 6.35 across the three matches. Top scorers Gabriel Jesus (four goals) and Bukayo Saka (three) have also outperformed their individual xG values by 2.0 and 1.3 goals respectively during the tournament, while the former is now back to full fitness too.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Sheffield United 0 Arsenal 6 | 04.03.24 Premier League |
| Arsenal 4 Newcastle United 1 | 24.02.24 Premier League |
| FC Porto 1 Arsenal 0 | 21.02.24 Champions League |
| Burnley 0 Arsenal 5 | 17.02.24 Premier League |
| West Ham 0 Arsenal 6 | 11.02.24 Premier League |
In addition to Jesus, Thomas Partey also made his return from injury during the 6-0 EPL demolition of the Blades. Both Takehiro Tomiyasu (knock) and Oleksandr Zinchenko (calf injury) may also be available for selection when Porto ride into town, although their fitness will be continually monitored in the coming days. While Bukayo Saka (illness) and Gabriel Martinelli (foot) were withdrawn against Sheffield United, they should recover in time for the Porto game, although Jurrien Timber is still a few weeks away from returning as he completes his recovery from an ACL injury.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Takehiro Tomiyasu | Knock |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko | Calf Injury |
| Bukayo Saka | Illness |
| Gabriel Martinelli | Foot Injury |
| Jurrien Timber | Knee Injury |
2️⃣ FC Porto Update
Porto are on an unbeaten run of five matches in all competitions, since a surprise 3-2 loss at Arouca on February 12th. This sequence included the 1-0 win in the first leg over Arsenal, in a match where Porto were defensively very well organized and managed to carve out an xG of 1.21. They also minimized Arsenal’s considerable threat and kept the Gunners to a nominal xG of 0.44 and will look to deploy similar counter-attacking tactics in North London. Sérgio Conceição’s men also thumped bitter rivals Benfica 5-0 in the Liga Portugal last time out, as they moved within six points of the Eagles in the table.
| Last 5 Games | |
|---|---|
| Porto 5 Benfica 0 | 03.03.24 Liga Portugal |
| Santa Clara 1 Porto 2 | 29.02.24 Taca de Portugal |
| Gil Vicente 1 Porto 1 | 25.02.24 Liga Portugal |
| Porto 1 Arsenal 0 | 21.02.24 Champions League |
| Porto 2 Estrela Amadora 0 | 17.02.24 Liga Portugal |
Brazilian striker Evanilson is fully fit after being a doubt ahead of the first leg, but defenders Zaidu Sanusi and Ivan Marcano (both ACL injuries) remain long-term absentees. Winger Gabriel Veron is also continuing his recovery from an Achilles tendon injury, while Iranian hitman Mehdi Taremi has a thigh complaint and won’t return until later in the month.
| Player | Reason |
|---|---|
| Ivan Marcano | ACL injury |
| Gabriel Veron | Achilles Tendon Injury |
| Zaidu Sanusi | ACL Injury |
| Mehdi Taremi | Thigh Injury |
👕 Arsenal vs FC Porto - Potential Lineups
| Pos. | Arsenal 4-3-3 | FC Porto 4-2-3-1 | Pos. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | D. Raya | D. Costa | Goalkeeper |
| Right Back | B. White | João Mário | Right Back |
| Centre Back | W. Saliba | Pepe | Centre Back |
| Centre Back | Gabriel | Otávio | Centre Back |
| Left Back | O. Zinchenko | Wendell | Left Back |
| Midfielder | M. Ødegaard | A. Varela | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | Jorginho | N. Gonzalez | Midfielder |
| Midfielder | D. Rice | Pepê | Midfielder |
| Wide Forward | B. Saka | F. Conceição | Wide Forward |
| Striker | G. Jesus | Evanilson | Striker |
| Wide Forward | G. Martinelli | Galeno | Wide Forward |
✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster
Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.
