Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

arsenal-v-bayern-prediction arsenal-v-bayern-prediction
TournamentUEFA Champions League
Timetable20:00 GMT 9th April 24
PredictionArsenal To Win!
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.83
Bet €100 and win €183 if Arsenal win.
Bet €100 and win €183 if Arsenal win.
1​Bet Sports
Odds : 1.75
Bet €100 and win €175 if Arsenal win.

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Arsenal’s improvement this season under Mikel Arteta has been tangible, with this helping them to reach the Champions League quarterfinals for the first time since the 2009/10 season. They’ll take on 2020 winners Bayern Munich, for whom the Champions League remains their best chance of silverware after a faltering domestic season. Thomas Tuchel’s men will certainly be determined to defeat the Gunners, while they also boast former Spurs hitman and Arsenal nemesis Harry Kane in their ranks. But will Kane’s presence prove to be the decisive factor, and what odds are Ireland’s best betting sites offering on an Arsenal win in North London?

🏆 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich UCL Prediction

Arsenal and Bayern have met 12 times in the UEFA Champions League, with the Bavarians prevailing on seven occasions and losing just three matches. Their last two-legged meeting came in the round of 16 during the 2016/17 campaign, when Bayern famously recorded successive 5-1 victories to secure a dominant 10-2 aggregate triumph.

Of course, this Arsenal side is made of sterner stuff, while the Gunners are also one of the most efficient UCL sides from an attacking perspective. In fact, their tally of 17 tournament goals has come from just 99 attempts on goal, with no team bettering Arsenal’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.16 in this season’s Champions League.

The Gunners have also outperformed their tournament xG of 12.1 by +4.9 goals (a competition high in 2023/24), while Bayern are more wasteful despite creating a higher number of chances in front of goal. This type of ruthlessness could prove key in a match of such importance, especially as both teams like to dominate possession and retain the ball as high up the pitch as possible.

Although I expect both sides to be measured in their approach and have periods of control during the game, I think Arsenal’s superior form and efficacy in front of goal may afford them an edge in the home leg. Whether this is enough to win the tie has yet to be seen, but it should help them to carve out a competitive advantage ahead of the return leg.

My Prediction: 🏆 Arsenal 2 – 1 Bayern Munich ⚽

💯 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Match Odds

Surprisingly, Arsenal are the clear favourites to defeat Bayern in this quarterfinal first leg, with this having much to do with home advantage and the Gunners’ superior form. You can also wager on whether both teams will score or not and the over/under on the total number of goals in the first leg, but how are all of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Match Winner

Arsenal can be backed to beat Bayern at an average price of 1.75, which implies a 57.14% probability of a home win. Conversely, Thomas Tuchel’s men are priced at around 4.00 to overcome the Gunners, suggesting that they only have a 25% of prevailing during the first leg. Interestingly, the draw is statistically more likely than a Bayern win, with odds of around 3.70 implying a 27.02% probability of a tie.

Arsenal to Win1.751.831.751.751.83
Bayern Munich to Win4.004.003.854.004.00

⚽ Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal’s 20 matches at the Emirates in all competitions (45%), with the Gunners keeping nine clean sheets and failing to score just twice. They’ve yet to concede in four Champions League home games this season. Both sides have found the net in 12 of Bayern’s 19 matches on the road in 2023/24. The Bavarians have kept a total of five clean sheets away from home and drawn two blanks.


🥅 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 20 home matches contested by Arsenal in 2023/24 have yielded 66 goals at a rate of 3.30 per game, with the Gunners scoring an impressive 51 times at the Emirates. Bayern’s 19 away games in all competitions have produced a whopping 69 goals at the higher rate of 3.63 per 90 minutes, although they’ve conceded 27 times on the road at a rate of 1.42 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals1.701.701.651.651.70
Under 2.5 Goals2.

✔️ Arsenal vs Bayern Munich - Betting Tips

If you have one or more free bets on your sportsbook account, you could consider deploying a matched betting strategy here. You can simply lay a back bet on the Gunners to win at a dedicated exchange, covering all potential match outcomes and guaranteeing a nominal profit. However, what other betting tips can help you to make the most of your free bets and real money bankroll?

  • Tip 1: Back Arsenal to Win and Both Teams to Score: The odds imply a strong probability of an Arsenal win, so there isn’t tremendous value to be found in backing the Gunners outright. However, betting on Arsenal to win and both teams to score at the Emirates unlocks the enhanced price of price of 3.50 with Royalist Play, while this reflects Bayern’s obvious goal threat and the quality of their top scorer Harry Kane. The former Spurs man has also scored 14 goals and contributed two assists in just 17 appearances against the Gunners, so it’s hard to imagine Bayern not scoring in North London.
  • Tip 2: Back Over 2.5 Goals Being Scored: The odds also imply a 58.82% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the first leg, which makes sense given the respective home and away records of Arsenal and Bayern. While neither side will look to overcommit offensively, there are some stellar attacking players on show, with the Gunners duo of Gabriel Jesus and Bukayo Saka averaging 1.09 and 1.06 goal-creating actions per 90 in this season’s UCL. You can get on over 2.5 goals being scored at the competitive price of 2.70 with 1Bet Sports, and this bet makes sense if you also expect the Gunners to win and both teams to find the net.
  • Tip 3: Back Harry Kane as an Anytime Goalscorer: I’ve already touched on Harry Kane’s imperious record against Arsenal, but England’s leading scorer remains in superb individual form too. In fact, he has struck a staggering 37 goals in just 36 appearances in all competitions this season, including six from 23 attempts and an xG of 4.5 in the Champions League. He’ll undoubtedly be Bayern’s main goal threat in North London, while you can back him as an anytime scorer at the surprisingly high price of price of 3.00 with Mr Mega Sports.

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Although Arsenal struggled during their two-leg round of 16 tie with Porto, they showed immense resilience and fortitude to eventually prevail via a penalty shootout. They’ve also been in superb form in 2024 so far, winning 10 of their 13 matches in all competitions and only sampling defeat against Liverpool and Porto during this sequence. They’ve also scored 36 goals across these fixtures and conceded on seven occasions. Two of their eight defeats this season have come at home, while they’ve yet to concede in four UCL matches at the Emirates in 2023/24.

Last 5 Games
Arsenal 2
Luton Town 0
Premier League
Man City 0
Arsenal 0
Premier League
Arsenal 1
FC Porto 0
UEFA Champions League
Arsenal 2
Brentford 1
Premier League
Sheffield United 0
Arsenal 6
Premier League

Bukayo Saka is a slight doubt for the Gunners with a thigh strain, but he’ll be assessed ahead of Arsenal’s weekend clash with Brighton on the south coast. Otherwise, Arsenal’s only confirmed absentee remains Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who is expected back in May as he finalises his recovery from a serious ACL injury.

Jurrien Timber ACL Injury
Bukayo Saka Thigh Injury

2️⃣ Bayern Update

Unlike the Gunners, Bayern have endured a challenging 2024 so far, already losing five times since January 12th. Four of these defeats have come in the Bundesliga, in which Thomas Tuchel’s men are now 13 points behind runaway leaders Bayer Leverkusen and set to see their hopes of a 12th consecutive German title win dashed. Bayern also lost at Lazio in the first leg of their round of 16 ties against the Serie A side, only to recover with a superb 3-0 victory in the return match at the Allianz Arena. Overall, the Bavarians have won three of the four away matches they’ve contested in this season’s UCL.

Last 5 Games
Bayern Munich 0
Borussia Dortmund 2
Darmstadt 2
Bayern Munich 5
Bayern Munich 8
Mainz 1
Bayern Munich 3
Lazio 0
Champions League
SC Freiburg 2
Bayern Munich 2

Kingsley Coman has a muscle injury and will miss out at the Emirates, while Manuel Neuer (groin) and right back Sacha Boey (hip) are also expected to be unavailable next week. Both Leroy Sane (muscle) and Noussair Mazraoui (virus) will be assessed ahead of kick-off, but both are expected to play at least some part against the Gunners. Bouna Sarr continues his recovery from an ACL injury and has been ruled out for the season.

Player Reason
Kingsley Coman Muscle injury
Manuel Neuer Groin Injury
Sacha Boey Hip Injury
Leroy Sane Muscle Injury
Noussair Mazraoui Virus
Bouna Sarr ACL Injury

👕 Arsenal vs Bayern - Potential Lineups

Pos. Arsenal
Goalkeeper D. Raya S. Ulreich Goalkeeper
Right Back B. White J. Kimmich Right Back
Centre Back W. Saliba M. de Ligt Centre Back
Centre Back Gabriel E. Dier Centre Back
Left Back T. Tomiyasu A. Davies Left Back
Midfielder M. Ødegaard K. Laimer Midfielder
Midfielder Jorginho L. Goretzka Midfielder
Midfielder D. Rice T. Müller Midfielder
Wide Forward B. Saka S. Gnabry Wide Forward
Striker K. Havertz H. Kane Striker
Wide Forward G. Martinelli J. Musiala Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.


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