Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips

🏆 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich UCL Prediction

Arsenal and Bayern have met 12 times in the UEFA Champions League, with the Bavarians prevailing on seven occasions and losing just three matches. Their last two-legged meeting came in the round of 16 during the 2016/17 campaign, when Bayern famously recorded successive 5-1 victories to secure a dominant 10-2 aggregate triumph.

Of course, this Arsenal side is made of sterner stuff, while the Gunners are also one of the most efficient UCL sides from an attacking perspective. In fact, their tally of 17 tournament goals has come from just 99 attempts on goal, with no team bettering Arsenal’s goals-per-shot ratio of 0.16 in this season’s Champions League.

The Gunners have also outperformed their tournament xG of 12.1 by +4.9 goals (a competition high in 2023/24), while Bayern are more wasteful despite creating a higher number of chances in front of goal. This type of ruthlessness could prove key in a match of such importance, especially as both teams like to dominate possession and retain the ball as high up the pitch as possible.

Although I expect both sides to be measured in their approach and have periods of control during the game, I think Arsenal’s superior form and efficacy in front of goal may afford them an edge in the home leg. Whether this is enough to win the tie has yet to be seen, but it should help them to carve out a competitive advantage ahead of the return leg.

💯 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich Match Odds

Surprisingly, Arsenal are the clear favourites to defeat Bayern in this quarterfinal first leg, with this having much to do with home advantage and the Gunners’ superior form. You can also wager on whether both teams will score or not and the over/under on the total number of goals in the first leg, but how are all of these markets currently being priced?

🏅 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Match Winner

Arsenal can be backed to beat Bayern at an average price of 1.75, which implies a 57.14% probability of a home win. Conversely, Thomas Tuchel’s men are priced at around 4.00 to overcome the Gunners, suggesting that they only have a 25% of prevailing during the first leg. Interestingly, the draw is statistically more likely than a Bayern win, with odds of around 3.70 implying a 27.02% probability of a tie.

Team
Arsenal to Win	1.75	1.83	1.75	1.75	1.83
Bayern Munich to Win	4.00	4.00	3.85	4.00	4.00
Draw	3.75	3.60	3.70	3.60	3.80

⚽ Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Both Teams To Score (BTTS)

Both teams have scored in nine of Arsenal’s 20 matches at the Emirates in all competitions (45%), with the Gunners keeping nine clean sheets and failing to score just twice. They’ve yet to concede in four Champions League home games this season. Both sides have found the net in 12 of Bayern’s 19 matches on the road in 2023/24. The Bavarians have kept a total of five clean sheets away from home and drawn two blanks.

Yes/No
Yes	1.62	1.67	1.58	1.58	1.67
No	2.15	2.20	2.14	2.14	2.10

🥅 Arsenal vs Bayern Munich: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The 20 home matches contested by Arsenal in 2023/24 have yielded 66 goals at a rate of 3.30 per game, with the Gunners scoring an impressive 51 times at the Emirates. Bayern’s 19 away games in all competitions have produced a whopping 69 goals at the higher rate of 3.63 per 90 minutes, although they’ve conceded 27 times on the road at a rate of 1.42 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals	1.70	1.70	1.65	1.65	1.70
Under 2.5 Goals	2.05	2.05	2.02	2.02	2.10

1️⃣ Arsenal Update

Although Arsenal struggled during their two-leg round of 16 tie with Porto, they showed immense resilience and fortitude to eventually prevail via a penalty shootout. They’ve also been in superb form in 2024 so far, winning 10 of their 13 matches in all competitions and only sampling defeat against Liverpool and Porto during this sequence. They’ve also scored 36 goals across these fixtures and conceded on seven occasions. Two of their eight defeats this season have come at home, while they’ve yet to concede in four UCL matches at the Emirates in 2023/24.

Bukayo Saka is a slight doubt for the Gunners with a thigh strain, but he’ll be assessed ahead of Arsenal’s weekend clash with Brighton on the south coast. Otherwise, Arsenal’s only confirmed absentee remains Dutch defender Jurrien Timber, who is expected back in May as he finalises his recovery from a serious ACL injury.

2️⃣ Bayern Update

Unlike the Gunners, Bayern have endured a challenging 2024 so far, already losing five times since January 12th. Four of these defeats have come in the Bundesliga, in which Thomas Tuchel’s men are now 13 points behind runaway leaders Bayer Leverkusen and set to see their hopes of a 12th consecutive German title win dashed. Bayern also lost at Lazio in the first leg of their round of 16 ties against the Serie A side, only to recover with a superb 3-0 victory in the return match at the Allianz Arena. Overall, the Bavarians have won three of the four away matches they’ve contested in this season’s UCL.

Kingsley Coman has a muscle injury and will miss out at the Emirates, while Manuel Neuer (groin) and right back Sacha Boey (hip) are also expected to be unavailable next week. Both Leroy Sane (muscle) and Noussair Mazraoui (virus) will be assessed ahead of kick-off, but both are expected to play at least some part against the Gunners. Bouna Sarr continues his recovery from an ACL injury and has been ruled out for the season.

👕 Arsenal vs Bayern - Potential Lineups