The Ashes 4th Test Prediction: England versus Australia. Who Will Win? (2023)

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TournamentThe Ashes 2023
Timetable19th-23rd July 2023
PredictionAustralia to win
OddsAustralia to Win @ 2.50
Australia to win
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Odds : 2.54
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England's hopes of regaining The Ashes were kept alive thanks to a thrilling win in the Third test at Headingley, and this was great for the series overall because it means that the next match at Old Trafford is not a pointless dead rubber. If England win, then it goes to a winner takes all fifth Test decider, while the Aussies know that they need just one more win to win a series in England for the first time in more than two decades. I expect more outstanding Test match cricket, and below you can see who I think will win.

🌹 England Team Preview After the 3rd Test

England have not made any changes to their 15-man squad for the 4th Test, but we are certain that they will make at least one change to the playing XI that will take to the field. It would be a huge surprise if they opted to go for the same XI, especially considering the back spasm that Ollie Robinson suffered from in the Test at Leeds.

The change that we expect to see is Jimmy Anderson replacing Robinson. Anderson will be one of the first to admit that he was not at his best in the first two Tests, but we must keep in mind the pitches that they were playing on - he probably felt a bit aggrieved to not be playing on the much quicker pitch that was on offer at Headingley. Old Trafford is Anderson's home ground, and he averages in the low 20s here, so I think that it would be the right move to recall him and let Robinson take a breather.

Moeen Ali returned to the team for the Third Test, and picked up a couple of crucial wickets in the second innings. While there are many calling for his head, Old Trafford is one of those pitches in England that spins towards the backend of the match, so I highly doubt that Brendan McCullum and Ben Stokes will opt to leave him out.

McCullum and Stokes also need to decide on the who is going to be batting at number three in this match in the absence of Ollie Pope. In the second innings at Leeds, Ali came in at number three, but did not last very long, while Harry Brook played at three in the first innings, and also did not last too long. In my opinion, Joe Root should bat at three in this fourth Test - he is England's best batsman by a country mile, and has batted in this position a number of times. I know he is not a huge fan of batting at three, but he should bite the bullet for his team.

My predicted England XI: Duckett, Crawley, Root, Brook, Stokes, Ali, Bairstow, Woakes, Broad, Wood, Anderson.

🦘 Australia Team Preview After the 3rd Test

It had been pretty plain sailing for the Aussies up until the third Test, but now they have a number of questions that they need to answer before they take to the field at Old Trafford. If England draw level in Manchester, then all of the momentum will be with the home team heading into the fifth and final test, and not many would be betting against them completing a remarkable comeback.

The main decision that the Aussie selectors have to make is whether to stick with David Warner or not. In the third Test, Mitchell Marsh was added to the team and scored a blistering century, so dropping him would send out all of the wrong messages. However, once again, Stuart Broad has had David Warner on toast, so there is a chance that the opening batsman will be dropped for this match at Old Trafford. Warner has averaged just 23.5 so far in the series, and the selectors will be very tempted to swap him out for Cameron Green.

If this is something that they opt to do, then someone else will need to face the new ball. They might decide to promote Travis Head or Marnus Labuschagne up to three, or maybe they will opt for Green or Marsh to open the batting with Usman Khawaja. The Australian opener has opened 30 times with Warner, and the latter has been the first one to be dismissed on 22 occasions.

We also think that there will be a change in the Australia bowling attack. Heading into this series, Scott Bolan was predicted to cause England's batsmen all sorts of issues with his nagging line and length, but it seems that they have taken a liking to him more than any other Assie bowler. In the Headingley Test, he did not pick up a single wicket and conceded 84 runs from 21 overs. As a result, we think that Josh Hazlewood will take his place at Manchester.

My predicted Australia XI: Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, Marsh, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Murphy, Hazlewood.

⚡ 4th Test Toss Prediction

Winning the toss can be more important at particular grounds, and when you check out the stats it would seem the Old Trafford is one such ground. From the 83 Tests that have been played here, the team of the winning captain at the toss has won 37.65% of the matches batting first, while the winning percentage for the team batting second is just 18.82%. I think that the captain that wins the toss on the morning of the 19th of July will take such stats into account, and will opt to bat first and try to put a big score on the board.

🌱 Pitch Conditions at Old Trafford Cricket Ground

The Old Trafford pitch is usually a bit of a batting paradise for the first innings, and gets harder to bat on as the match wears on. This is another reason why I think that the winner of the toss will decide to bat first. From the last five Tests that have taken place here, 404 runs is the average score in the first innings, and this drops to just 200 for the final innings.

So, it is clear that batting becomes harder as the match plays out, which tells you just how important it might be to win the toss on the first morning. During the fourth innings, there are footmarks that the spinners can bowl into, meaning that the likes of Todd Murphy and Ali might have a field day come the end of the game.

🔮 My Ashes Fourth Test Match Prediction

So, if you want to make an Ashes bet on the winner of the fourth Test at top betting sites in Ireland, who do I suggest you bet on? Well, I am expecting another close match between two very evenly matched teams with plenty of twists and turns across the five days, but I think the Aussies will come out on top and claim the little urn.

They might have lost the last match and England will feel that the momentum is with them, but in the previous Ashes in England the Aussies also lost at Headingley, before bouncing back at Old Trafford in the next game. They have a habit of bouncing right back after a defeat and, unfortunately for England fans, I sense a repeat of history.

My Match Prediction: Australia to win.

Australia to win

✒️ Sheldon Muchmore - iGaming and Sports Betting Enthusiast

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This Ashes fourth Test prediction was written by Sheldon Muchmore.

Sheldon is a tipster and betting expert from the United Kingdom who has a passion for a whole range of sports, particularly football, rugby, and cricket. He is an avid Aston Villa fan, so feel free to feel a bit of pity for him. He has been involved in the online gambling industry for a number of years now and has written a large number of predictions for a variety of sports including GAA, so he has built up a lot of sporting expertise over the years.