Ukraine vs Belgium Prediction, Betting Tips & Odds - UEFA Euro 2024

Ukraine-v-Belgium-prediction Ukraine-v-Belgium-prediction
TournamentUEFA European Championship 2024
Timetable18:00 GMT 26th June 2024
PredictionBelgium to Win!
Odds@1.70
BookmakerLegend Play Sports
The best odds
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Legend Play Sports
Odds : 1.70
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Sportaza
Odds : 1.70
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3.
20​BET Sports
Odds : 1.70
Bet €100 and win €170 if Belgium win.
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Odds are susceptible to change!
Ukraine-vs Belgium-logo Ukraine-vs Belgium-logo

UEFA European Championship Group E is delightfully poised ahead of the final round of fixtures, with all four teams currently tied on three points with a single win apiece. So, not only can each of these sides still qualify for the round of 16, but there’s a huge swathes of permutations that will dictate who eventually progresses. However, Belgium are guaranteed to advance if they earn a point against the Ukraine in Stuttgart, while their opponents need a win to be sure of continuing their adventure at Euro 2024. But which side will prevail at the MHPArena, and who are Ireland’s best betting sites backing to win?

🏆 Ukraine vs Belgium Prediction

Ukraine have averaged 56% possession per 90 so far at Euro 2024, with only two nations (Germany and Portugal) performing better according to this metric. However, they’ve struggled to translate this into goal attempts and high quality chances, hitting the target just seven times and accumulating a total xG of 2.26.

Although Belgium have averaged slightly less possession per 90 (55.5%), they’ve struck 34 shots on goal and hit the target on 14 occasions. Their cumulative xG of 3.46 is also noticeably superior to the Ukraine, and this can largely be attributed to the Red Devils’ superior individual quality in the form of Romelu Lukaku, Jeremy Doku and Kevin De Bruyne.

Ukraine have also struggled defensively at times during the tournament, as despite looking to dominate possession and press high up the pitch, they’ve only recovered 76 balls. If they do look to leave space in behind or out wide, they may also have to be mindful of the threat posed by winger Jerermy Doku. He has completed 14 dribbles so far and made 17 runs into the opponent’s penalty area, while registering seven key passes.

Overall, the Belgians have an incredibly varied attack, with the pace of Doku and talisman Lukaku complemented by the guile of Kevin De Bruyne. This will make the Red Devils dangerous both in and out of possession, and Ukraine may struggle to cope with this threat for the duration of the 90 minutes. So, although I expect Serhiy Rebrov’s side to have their fair share of the ball in Stuttgart, I think that Belgium will run out comfortable winners.

Format: My Prediction: Ukraine 1 – 3 Belgium⚽

💯 Ukraine vs Belgium Betting Odds

While Group E may be incredibly tight and tough to call, Belgium are the pre-game favourites to defeat Ukraine at the MHPArena. You can also wager on both teams to score (or not), while predicting the over/under on the total number of goals that will be scored during the match. Let’s take a closer look at how each of these markets is currently being priced.

🏅 Ukraine vs Belgium: Match Winner

At the time of writing, you can back Belgium to beat Ukraine at an average price of 1.70, implying a 58.82% probability of a win for the Red Devils. If you fancy the Ukrainians to defeat Domenico Tedesco’s side in Stuttgart, you can get on them to triumph at around 4.90. So, they have a 20.40% chance of achieving this objective. The draw is priced at 4.00, implying a 25% probability of the match ending in a tie.

Team
Ukraine to Win5.004.754.904.755.00
Belgium to Win1.671.701.671.701.70
Draw to Win4.004.004.004.004.20

⚽ Ukraine vs Belgium: Both Teams To Score Odds

Both teams have scored in exactly five of the Ukraine’s previous 10 matches (50%). Rebrov’s men have scored in seven of these games and kept four clean sheets (including in contests against Italy and Germany). Both sides have found the next is just two of Belgium’s last 10 encounters (20%), with the Red Devils keeping an impressive seven clean sheets and drawing two blanks.

Yes/No
Yes1.701.711.721.951.81
No2.052.101.962.102.01

🥅 Ukraine vs Belgium: Over/Under Goals Odds

The Ukraine’s last 10 matches have also produced 26 goals in total, at an average of 2.6 per game. They’ve scored 16 times during this run at an rate of 1.6 per 90 minutes. Belgium’s previous 10 encounters have yielded 28 goals at the higher average of 2.8 per 90, while the Red Devils have only conceded five of these at the miserly rate of 0.5 per game.

Under/Over
Over 2.5 Goals1.731.711.751.711.77
Under 2.5 Goals2.002.142.012.142.10

✔️ Ukraine vs Belgium Betting Tips

There isn’t a great deal of value to be found in backing Belgium in the win market here, with the prohibitive odds capable of delivering only a nominal return. However, there are plenty of other betting lines and markets that you can explore here, while combination wagering may also prove beneficial. Here are some tips to keep in mind!

  • Tip 1: Back Belgium to Win with Over 2.5 Goals: Not only are Belgium the short price favourites to defeat Ukraine, but the pre-game odds also imply a 57.80% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored at the MHPArena. There’s good reason for this too: with the previous 20 matches contested by Ukraine and Belgium producing 54 goals in total at a rate of 2.7 per game. Remember, both teams also need a positive result in Stuttgart if they’re to contend for a place in the round of 16, so consider building a combination bet that backs Belgium to win with over 2.5 goals at the enhanced price of 2.36 with LegendPlay Sports.
  • Tip 2: Back Romelu Lukaku as an Anytime Goalscorer: If you have one or more free bets on your account, consider backing Romelu Lukaku as an anytime goalscorer. Although he has failed to score from eight attempts at Euro 2024 so far, he has hit the target five times had three goals disallowed by VAR. He has also scored 85 goals in 116 international caps, at an incredible average of 0.73 per 90 minutes. So, he’s performing well and is overdue a goal, while you can get on Lukaku as an anytime scorer at a price of 2.00 with RoyalistPlay Sports.
  • Tip 3: Back Belgium with a Handicap of -1.5 Goals: The Ukraine have struggled to contain their opponents in transition so far at Euro 2024, throughout the match against Romania and during the first 45 minutes against Slovakia. This will create a conundrum for Rebrov’s team, who may have to chase the game at some point in Stuttgart but can ill-afford players like Lukaku and Doku space in behind. I expect Belgium to capitalise on this during the course of the 90 minutes, so there’s value in backing them to win with a nominal handicap of -1.5 goals at a price of 2.75 with 20BET Sports.

1️⃣ Ukraine Update

The Ukraine’s shock 3-0 defeat against Romania was only their second in 11 matches, but they’ve now won just two of their previous five encounters overall. They’ve also scored just 16 goals during their previous 10 matches, and despite often having a significant share of possession during games, can struggle to create high quality chancres in the attacking third. One player who has shone during Euro 2024 is midfielder Mykola Shaparenko, who has produced a goal and an assist in 151 minutes of tournament play and completed 86 of his 94 passes (90.5%). He has also played four key passes in total.

Last 5 Games
Slovakia 1
Ukraine 2
21.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Romania 3
Ukraine 0
17.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Moldova 0
Ukraine 4
11.06.24
International Friendly
Poland 3
Ukraine 1
07.06.24
International Friendly
Germany 0
Ukraine 0
03.06.24
International Friendly

With Everton full back Vitaliy Mykolenko now having recovered from an ankle injury, Ukraine have a fully fit squad to select from against Belgium. His return could also see Arsenal star Oleksandr Zinchenko push forward into midfield. Girona striker Artem Dovbyk could be in contention to start again even if Rebrov decides to shake up his front six, but the manager is largely expected to name a now familiar team in Stuttgart.

2️⃣ Belgium Update

Although the Belgians may have seen a 14-game unbeaten run surprisingly ended by Slovakia in their Euro 2024 tournament opener, they’ve only lost one of their previous 16 matches in all competitions (since a similarly surprising 2-0 loss to Morocco at the FIFA 2022 World Cup). They’ve scored 34 goals during this sequence too, while only conceding eight times at a rate of 0.5 per 90 minutes. At this tournament, there’s no doubt that the introduction of Youri Tielemans to the side has improved Belgium in possession, as he has completed 62 of his 68 attempted passes (90%) and made five key passes in addition to scoring the opener against Romania.

Last 5 Games
Belgium 2
Romania 0
22.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Belgium 0
Slovakia 1
17.06.24
UEFA Euro 2024 – Group E
Belgium 3
Luxembourg 0
08.06.24
International Friendly
Belgium 2
Montenegro 0
05.06.24
International Friendly
England 2
Belgium 2
26.03.24
International Friendly

Both Axel Witsel (adductor injury) and Thomas Meunier (thigh) remain doubts for the match against Ukraine, while young winger Dodi Lukebakio is suspended after collecting two yellow cards during the tournament. Leandro Trossard is therefore expected to be restored to Belgium’s starting 11, although full back Arthur Theatre is a fresh doubt after injuring his thigh in the clash against Romania.

Player Reason
Axel Witsel Adductor Injury
Dodi Lukebakio Suspended
Thomas Meunier Thigh Injury
Arthur Theatre Thigh Injury

👕 Ukraine vs Belgium Potential Lineups

Pos. Ukraine
4-2-3-1
Belgium
4-3-3
Pos.
Goalkeeper A. Trubin K. Casteels Goalkeeper
Right Back O. Tymchyk T. Castagne Right Back
Centre Back I. Zabarnyi W. Faes Centre Back
Centre Back M. Matviyenko J. Vertonghen Centre Back
Left Back V. Mykolenko A. Theate Left Back
Midfielder M. Shaparenko Y. Tielemans Midfielder
Midfielder O. Zinchenko A. Onana Midfielder
Midfielder G. Sudakov K. De Bruyne Midfielder
Wide Forward A. Yarmolenko L. Trossard Wide Forward
Striker A. Dovbyk R. Lukaku Striker
Wide Forward M. Mudryk J. Doku Wide Forward

✒️ Lewis Humphries – Expert Tipster

Lewis Humphries is an experienced football writer and tipster from the UK. He writes regularly about the Champions League, Premier League, Serie A and other competitions, regularly delivering expert match predictions and betting insights. He also successfully predicted the winner of the 2022 FIFA World Cup, while accurately forecasting the outcome of several group stage and knockout games.

Lewis doesn't just stick to sports; you can also find plenty of casino gaming content. He's reviewed some of the world's leading online casino platforms, while creating blog posts and landing page content for various sports betting brands. His content has also been featured on a number of Irish betting sites, including Life Hack, Investopedia, Yahoo Finance and Business Insider. He also pens regular sports features for sites including 90 Minutes, Think Football Ideas and Sportsblog.

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